LatAm Pre-Open — Tuesday, July 14, 2026

01 The overnight tape in one read

Asian markets held their breath overnight with major benchmarks stuck in narrow ranges. Japan’s Nikkei traded flat as investors awaited foreign bond and stock investment data due after the close, while Chinese indices edged lower on thin volumes with no fresh stimulus signals.

European futures are pointing to an open near the flatline. Bundesbank President Nagel speaks at 16:00 GMT but markets expect little new guidance — the ECB is firmly in summer pause mode and the next policy debate will wait until September.

The dollar is broadly steady against major peers, though USD/JPY remains elevated near 162.60, its highest level in over a year. The greenback’s calm is deceptive — it masks positioning ahead of the US PPI release that will either validate or challenge the inflation narrative.

Oil is the quiet worry. OPEC’s latest monthly report cut 2026 global demand growth by 190,000 b/d to 780,000 b/d, enough to keep Brent and WTI below their recent ranges. For Latin America’s oil exporters — Colombia, Brazil and Mexico — the demand-side caution is a headwind that compounds the broader risk-off mood.

02 The board before the open

The board reflects a synchronised pause rather than a panic. Every major LatAm index declined on Monday, but the moves were measured and tightly correlated with the S&P 500’s 0.79% drop.

The Ibovespa’s 1.20% fall was the sharpest of the group, a reminder that Brazil’s commodity-heavy index suffers disproportionately when global risk appetite wanes. Meanwhile, Colombia’s COLCAP held onto Friday’s 0.65% gain — the only green number on the regional board — though it will be tested by today’s retail sales and industrial production data.

03 What the data shows — oil names dominate the B3 tape

Monday’s B3 tape told a clear story: oil was the only game in town. Petrobras common and preferred shares, plus junior oil name PRIO3, soaked up over R$2.7 billion in combined turnover as crude’s demand-side worries paradoxically drew buyers to energy names beaten down in recent sessions.

The loser board was dominated by rate-sensitive domestic names — Weg’s 4.6% drop on R$451 million in volume was the clearest signal that higher-for-longer Selic fears are still biting, while homebuilder MRV’s 5.4% plunge underscored the pain in real estate. Braskem’s 4.7% surge was the standout, the petrochemical producer riding oil’s coat-tails on relatively thin R$54 million turnover.

04 Brazil and the currencies

The real weakened to 5.1370 per dollar on Monday, a 0.58% move that reversed some of the currency’s recent strength. The pair is still 8.1% off its 52-week worst level of 5.5901, keeping the real in a medium-term appreciation channel.

Carry demand remains the real’s structural support. With the Selic at 14.25% and the Focus survey pencilling 14.0% by year-end, the rate differential continues to attract foreign inflows even on days when risk appetite sours. The 5 August Copom meeting is the next catalyst.

Argentina’s peso faces a different test. The country’s CPI prints before the open — consensus expects 33.6% year-on-year, a nudge higher from 33.2% — and a hot number would test the EMBI compression that has driven the Merval’s historic surge above 3 million points.

Mexico’s peso firmed fractionally on Monday despite the IPC’s decline, suggesting the currency market is pricing the rate differential more than the equity story. Colombia’s peso, by contrast, is in wait-and-see mode ahead of retail sales and industrial production data due at 15:00 GMT — both expected to show sharp deceleration from the prior month.

05 The regional setup

The regional board shows a uniform pullback with only Colombia carrying forward a positive print from the prior session. Brazil’s 1.20% drop was the heaviest, consistent with the Ibovespa’s higher beta to global macro swings and its 11.5% gap below the 52-week high.

Argentina’s 0.87% decline was modest by Merval standards — the index has been consolidating near 3.25 million after its historic rally — and the real test comes with today’s CPI release. Chile’s IPSA, sitting within 8% of record territory, remains the region’s quiet outperformer, supported by banks and retailers rather than commodities.

06 The technical picture

The Ibovespa’s 175,739 close is dangerously close to testing the psychological 175,000 floor. The index has now posted one straight down day and is 11.5% below its 198,657 52-week high — technically in correction territory and showing no divergence from Wall Street.

Mexico’s IPC at 65,973 is 7.9% below its 71,601 peak, a shallower correction that reflects the index’s lower commodity sensitivity. The 60,216 52-week low is far enough away to keep the medium-term trend intact, but a break below 65,000 would trigger stop-losses.

The Merval’s 3.25 million level is a consolidation pivot after clearing 3 million. Argentine equities have been the region’s best performers in 2026, driven by country-risk compression to 406bp, and a hot CPI print would be the first real test of that rally’s durability.

Colombia’s COLCAP grinding below the 2,320 post-election ceiling keeps the Andean complex constructive but capped. Today’s retail sales and industrial production data — expected at 11% and 0.8% respectively, both sharply down from prior readings — will either validate or puncture the Andean calm.

07 What to watch

• US PPI (12:30 GMT): A core print above the 0.3% consensus would harden higher-for-longer and hit rate-sensitive LatAm names hard.
• Argentina CPI (pre-open): A reading above 33.6% year-on-year tests the EMBI compression story that has driven the Merval’s rally.
• Colombia retail sales and industrial production (15:00 GMT): Sharp deceleration expected in both prints; the data will set the tone for Andean assets into the close.
• Fed Beige Book (18:00 GMT): A late-day read on US economic conditions could either reinforce or soften the PPI narrative heading into Wednesday.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Latin American markets fall on Monday?

Every major LatAm index tracked the S&P 500’s 0.79% drop — there was no local catalyst. The synchronised retreat suggests the region is fully in step with global macro anxiety ahead of US PPI data.

What is the key data to watch today?

US producer prices at 12:30 GMT and Argentina’s inflation before the open are the twin pivots. A hot PPI print would harden rate fears; a hot Argentine CPI would test the Merval rally.

Why did Petrobras rise while most of Brazil fell?

Oil stocks were the exception on B3 — Petrobras ON and PN shares rose 3.4% and 2.5% respectively on heavy volume, with investors rotating into beaten-down energy names despite OPEC’s demand downgrade.

Is the real still a carry trade favourite?

Yes. The Selic at 14.25% and the real’s 8.1% cushion above its 52-week worst level keep the carry trade attractive. Foreign inflows have held up even on risk-off days.

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