Oil Fund Slips 0.5% as Ecopetrol Falls 2.5% | Oil, Oct 21
Key Facts
- The US oil fund USO fell 0.50% to US$159.80 on Wednesday 21 October.
- Ecopetrol, Colombia’s state oil company, fell 2.49% to US$17.24 in New York.
- YPF, Argentina’s oil company, fell 0.81% to US$50.37; Petrobras slipped 0.16% to US$25.66.
- US crude inventories fell 3.06 million barrels to 412.5 million in the week to 16 October, against a forecast fall of 0.8 million.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket gives 77.0% to US crude (WTI) touching US$100 in October (US$3.76 million traded, read at 8:30 pm ET on 21 October). Bets, not forecasts.
Today’s Focus
Oil-linked investments in New York eased on Wednesday 21 October. The USO fund, which follows US crude futures, closed at US$159.80, down 0.50%.
US government data showed commercial crude inventories fell 3.06 million barrels to 412.5 million in the week to 16 October. That was a bigger draw than the 0.8 million forecast, and stocks at Cushing, the delivery hub, rose by 0.987 million barrels.
Latin American producers mostly slipped. Ecopetrol fell 2.49%, YPF 0.81% and Petrobras 0.16%.
What matters today. Oil funds and Latin American producers edged lower, but a bigger-than-expected fall in US stockpiles limited the move.
01 The session in one read
The USO fund settled at US$159.80, down 0.50%, after a 0.12% fall on Tuesday. We could not confirm a settlement price for US crude (WTI) itself.
US inventories fell 3.06 million barrels to 412.5 million, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Net crude imports rose by 837,000 barrels per day.
The oil fund and three Latin American producers all fell, yet US crude stocks dropped by more than forecast. The cause of the share declines is not confirmed in our data. The variable to watch is the next weekly stock report: a further large draw would support prices and the producers’ shares.
02 The board
Petrobras’s New York shares closed at US$25.66, down 0.16%, the steadiest of the three. YPF ended at US$50.37, down 0.81%.
Ecopetrol was the weakest, dropping 2.49% to US$17.24.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| WTI crude (USO) | US$159.80 | -0.50% |
| Petrobras | US$25.66 | -0.16% |
| Ecopetrol | US$17.24 | -2.49% |
| YPF | US$50.37 | -0.81% |
Source: RT close, 2026-10-21. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
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Latin America — Cross-Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 206,495.23 | -0.86% | +21.85% | 208,295.98 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| IPSA | 10,985.55 | +0.54% | — | 10,926.50 | 11,210 | 10,984 | 1,513,213,483 |
| IPC MEX | 69,583.42 | +0.47% | +12.17% | 69,258.58 | 66,121 | 65,405 | 108,886,187 |
| MERVAL | 3,017,221 | — | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| COLCAP | 2,560.37 | +1.07% | — | 9.04 | 9.05 | 9.02 | 4,133 |
| BVL PERÚ | 59,870.67 | -0.52% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| USD/MXN | 17.06 | -0.24% | -8.58% | 17.10 | 17.08 | 17.01 | — |
| USD/CLP | 913.98 | +0.04% | -5.67% | 913.65 | 915.11 | 906.68 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,140 | +0.03% | -22.04% | 3,139 | 3,141 | 3,105 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.36 | -0.66% | -4.82% | 3.38 | 3.38 | 3.35 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.27 | +1.24% | +1.80% | 39.77 | 40.27 | 40.23 | — |
| USD/PYG | 5,939 | +1.68% | -19.54% | 5,841 | 5,939 | 5,925 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.64 | -0.76% | +72.04% | 11.73 | 11.72 | 11.64 | — |
| USD/DOP | 58.34 | +1.25% | -3.44% | 57.62 | 58.34 | 58.04 | — |
| USD/CRC | 445.92 | +0.89% | -9.71% | 441.97 | 448.50 | 445.92 | — |
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03 What moved it
The US Energy Information Administration reported that commercial crude stocks fell 3.06 million barrels, more than the 0.8 million analysts expected. Stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, rose 0.987 million barrels.
We could not confirm a single trigger for the producers’ share prices. The S&P 500 rose 0.58%, so oil shares moved against Wall Street.
04 The Latin American read
Petrobras barely moved. Ecopetrol’s 2.49% fall was the largest, and Colombia’s COLCAP rose 1.07% despite it.
YPF’s 0.81% fall followed a rise of 0.18% on Tuesday. Argentine banks and telecoms, not oil, led Buenos Aires higher.
05 The names to watch
Petrobras, Ecopetrol and YPF each stand for a national oil story: Brazilian offshore output, Colombian state finances and Argentine shale. Their different moves on Wednesday show how much company news matters.
06 The outlook
A larger-than-expected draw in US stocks tends to limit downside for crude. The next weekly report will show whether the draw continues.
Prediction markets give a high chance that US crude touches US$100 in October, which shows traders still see upside risk.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a prediction market, priced a touch of US$100 for US crude (WTI) in October at 77.0%, US$105 at 35.0% and US$110 at 13.0%, with US$3,758,332 traded across the event (read at 8:30 pm ET on 21 October). The same market priced a fall to US$95 at 64.0%.
These prices are bets, not forecasts. They can move quickly on supply news and shipping reports.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
07 What to watch
- US inventories: The next weekly report will show whether crude stocks keep falling.
- Ecopetrol: Watch whether the 2.49% fall extends in Bogotá on Thursday.
- The USO fund: A move back above Tuesday’s US$160.61 would reverse the dip.
- Prediction markets: The odds of US$100 crude in October are the market’s read on price risk.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did the oil fund fall on 21 October?
USO fell 0.50% to US$159.80. We could not confirm a single trigger, even though US crude stocks fell more than forecast.
Which Latin American oil stock fell most?
Ecopetrol dropped 2.49% to US$17.24 in New York.
What did US inventories do?
Commercial crude stocks fell 3.06 million barrels to 412.5 million in the week to 16 October, the US Energy Information Administration reported.
What do prediction markets say about US crude?
Polymarket gave 77.0% to a touch of US$100 in October, as of 8:30 pm ET on 21 October. These are bets, not forecasts.
Market data: RT
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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