Oil Wrap: Crude Funds Jump, Latam Producers Split
Key Facts
- Oil funds jumped: the USO fund, which tracks West Texas Intermediate futures, closed 2.99% higher at US$150.02 on Thursday, October 1, 2026, and the Brent-tracking BNO fund rose 4.76% to US$62.95.
- Petrobras defied regional weakness the Brazilian major’s New York shares rose 0.53 percent to US$20.98, the only advancer among the Latin American producers on the board.
- YPF fell 1.72 percent the Argentine producer’s US-listed shares settled at US$49.27 as a legacy legal dispute over the 2012 nationalization returned to focus.
- Ecopetrol dropped 1.27 percent the Colombian state-controlled company’s American depositary receipts closed at US$16.27, making it the session’s weakest regional name.
- Venezuelan exports fell nearly 9 percent in September cargoes leaving the country dropped to 1.08 million barrels per day as soaring tanker costs forced steeper discounts.
- Guyana’s output reached 900,000 barrels a day in November 2025 the ExxonMobil-operated Stabroek block could approach 1.7 million barrels a day by the end of the decade.
Today’s Focus
Oil had a split personality on Thursday, October 1, 2026. The WTI-tracking fund USO jumped 2.99% to US$150.02, yet the Latin American producer board told a softer story: Petrobras added 0.53%, while Ecopetrol and YPF fell.
We could not confirm a single driver for the jump in crude funds, and the producer board was mixed.
For Latin America, the pressure is concentrated. Venezuela’s September exports slipped almost 9 percent to 1.08 million barrels a day because freight costs are eating trader margins and forcing discounts on PDVSA cargoes.
Brazil and Guyana remain the region’s bright spots. Petrobras is advancing pre-salt technology with Shell and Strohm for a 2027 pilot, while Guyana’s Stabroek block keeps climbing toward a possible 1.7 million barrels a day late this decade.
What matters today. Crude funds rose sharply on Thursday, yet Latin American producer shares split, with Petrobras up and Ecopetrol and YPF down.
01 The session in one read
Oil markets ended Thursday, October 1, 2026, with the WTI-tracking fund USO at US$150.02, a gain of 2.99%, while the Brent-tracking BNO fund climbed 4.76% to US$62.95.
The producer board did not follow the crude funds. Only Petrobras gained, which fits the view that its low-cost pre-salt barrels are the safest Latin American oil equity when crude is volatile.
Crude funds rose sharply on Thursday, but Latin American producers did not follow, which suggests investors were separating the commodity move from company-specific risks such as legal exposure at YPF and cost levels at Ecopetrol. The variable to watch is whether crude funds hold their gains, because a sustained move would test how long producer equities can ignore it. We could not confirm one single driver for the jump.
02 The board
The producer board diverged from the crude proxy. USO rose 2.99 percent to US$150.02, while Petrobras added just 0.53 percent to US$20.98, reflecting Brazil’s relatively insulated domestic market and its pre-salt cost advantage.
Ecopetrol fell 1.27 percent to US$16.27 and YPF lost 1.72 percent to US$49.27. The Argentine name is also carrying a separate legal burden after former investors asked the US Supreme Court to review a ruling that overturned a US$16 billion judgment tied to the 2012 nationalization.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| WTI crude (USO) | US$150.02 | +2.99% |
| Petrobras | US$20.98 | +0.53% |
| Ecopetrol | US$16.27 | -1.27% |
| YPF | US$49.27 | -1.72% |
Source: RT close, 2026-10-01. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
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Latin America — Cross-Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 187,197.46 | +0.46% | +21.85% | 186,340.46 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| IPSA | 10,908.18 | -0.56% | — | 10,969.49 | 11,210 | 10,984 | 1,513,213,483 |
| IPC MEX | 63,828.60 | -0.60% | +12.17% | 64,214.36 | 66,121 | 65,405 | 108,886,187 |
| MERVAL | 2,758,840 | -2.15% | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| COLCAP | 2,530.05 | -0.75% | — | 9.04 | 9.05 | 9.02 | 4,133 |
| BVL PERÚ | 59,831.84 | -0.13% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| USD/MXN | 17.06 | -0.24% | -8.58% | 17.10 | 17.08 | 17.01 | — |
| USD/CLP | 913.98 | +0.04% | -5.67% | 913.65 | 915.11 | 906.68 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,140 | +0.03% | -22.04% | 3,139 | 3,141 | 3,105 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.36 | -0.66% | -4.82% | 3.38 | 3.38 | 3.35 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.27 | +1.24% | +1.80% | 39.77 | 40.27 | 40.23 | — |
| USD/PYG | 5,939 | +1.68% | -19.54% | 5,841 | 5,939 | 5,925 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.64 | -0.76% | +72.04% | 11.73 | 11.72 | 11.64 | — |
| USD/DOP | 58.34 | +1.25% | -3.44% | 57.62 | 58.34 | 58.04 | — |
| USD/CRC | 445.92 | +0.89% | -9.71% | 441.97 | 448.50 | 445.92 | — |
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03 What moved it
The sharpest signal in the data was the size of the move in crude funds: USO gained 2.99% and BNO 4.76% in one session.
We could not confirm which news items drove the move, so we do not attribute it to a single event. The producer board shows the market was not moving as one, with Petrobras up 0.53% while Ecopetrol fell 1.27% and YPF 1.72%.
Regional equity indices were mostly lower on the day: Mexico, Chile and Argentina fell, while Brazil’s Ibovespa gained 0.46%.
04 The Latin American read
Venezuela is where global logistics bite hardest. Exports fell nearly 9 percent in September to 1.08 million barrels per day as soaring tanker costs forced traders, including Vitol and Trafigura, to push PDVSA for steeper discounts and delay loadings.
Brazil is moving the other way. Petrobras, Shell and Strohm have finished qualifying a corrosion-resistant flowline for a pre-salt pilot expected in early 2027, reinforcing the low-cost, long-life character of Brazil’s deepwater assets.
Guyana keeps growing. The ExxonMobil-operated Stabroek block reached 900,000 barrels per day in November 2025, with industry estimates pointing toward 1.7 million barrels a day by the end of the decade, making it the hemisphere’s most important new supply source.
Argentina’s YPF is trying to build Vaca Muerta while managing legal risk, and that dual track showed in Thursday’s 1.72 percent decline. The Supreme Court petition over the old US$16 billion judgment is a reminder that Argentine energy investments carry courtroom as well as geologic uncertainty.
05 The names to watch
Petrobras is the regional anchor because its pre-salt barrels stay profitable even when global crude wobbles. The 0.53 percent gain to US$20.98 on a weak producer board confirms investors are treating it as the safest Latin American oil equity.
YPF is the highest-beta story. Vaca Muerta promises scale, but the US$49.27 close and the reopened nationalization dispute show the equity is still priced for legal risk, not just drilling results.
Ecopetrol’s 1.27 percent drop to US$16.27 reflects Colombia’s higher-cost production and its sensitivity to any softening in the Andean export market.
06 The outlook
The near term depends on whether crude holds its Thursday gains. If crude holds its gains, producers with lower costs such as Petrobras should keep their relative strength, while higher-cost and legally exposed names could stay under pressure.
07 What to watch
- Crude funds: Whether crude holds Thursday’s gains will shape the producer board, with Petrobras the relative winner so far.
- Venezuelan freight costs: Tanker rates and trader discounts determine whether PDVSA exports can recover above 1.08 million barrels a day or slide further.
- Stabroek block capacity: Guyana’s expansion beyond 900,000 barrels a day is the region’s biggest supply story and will reshape Latin American export competition.
- YPF legal review: A US Supreme Court decision to hear the US$16 billion case would hit the Argentine producer regardless of oil fundamentals.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did USO rise while Latin American producers fell?
USO tracks short-term WTI futures and jumped 2.99 percent to US$150.02, but only Petrobras gained among the Latin American producers on the board, while Ecopetrol and YPF fell on company-specific pressures.
What is happening with Venezuela’s oil?
Venezuelan exports fell nearly 9 percent in September to 1.08 million barrels per day because high tanker costs forced traders to demand steep discounts and delay loadings.
Why is Guyana so important?
The ExxonMobil-operated Stabroek block reached 900,000 barrels a day in November 2025 and could reach 1.7 million barrels a day late this decade, making it the fastest-growing new supply source in the hemisphere.
What petrobras and Shell are doing together?
Petrobras, Shell and Strohm completed qualification trials of a corrosion-resistant flowline for a pre-salt pilot planned for early 2027, extending the life of Brazil’s deepwater infrastructure.
Market data: RT
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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