OECD Cuts Colombia Growth Forecast and Urges Tougher Fiscal Fix

COLOMBIA · BUSINESS

Just as investors cheered Colombia’s election result, the OECD delivered a colder read: slower growth, stubborn inflation and a budget gap that still needs fixing. The two messages capture the gap between market mood and economic fundamentals.

OECD trims its Colombia growth forecast

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has trimmed its growth forecast for the Colombian economy, projecting an expansion of 2.4% in 2026 in its latest Economic Outlook, published this week. That marks a downgrade from the 2.8% the body had penciled in late last year, and signals a more cautious view of how much momentum the economy can sustain.

The OECD noted that still-elevated fiscal deficits will continue to support activity to some degree, but framed that support as a symptom of a deeper problem rather than a strength. The message: Colombia is leaning on borrowed money to prop up growth that is otherwise cooling.

Inflation set to climb again

On prices, the outlook is for a renewed pickup in 2026 before a gradual easing from early 2027. The OECD pointed to persistent services inflation, wage-indexation mechanisms, increases in the minimum wage and higher energy costs as the main forces keeping inflation above target. That combination complicates the central bank’s room to keep cutting interest rates quickly.

Sticky inflation alongside slower growth is an uncomfortable mix for policymakers, narrowing the space to stimulate the economy without reigniting price pressures.

The fiscal demand at the center

The sharpest point in the assessment is fiscal. The OECD insisted Colombia needs a more ambitious and credible consolidation strategy to bring down the cost of financing its debt. Elevated deficits, it warned, risk feeding into higher borrowing costs and undermining investor confidence if left unaddressed.

That echoes warnings from ratings agencies that whoever wins the presidency will inherit a substantial budget gap requiring a meaningful adjustment. The fiscal question, in short, is becoming the central constraint on Colombia’s economic outlook regardless of who governs.

A global slowdown in the background

Colombia’s downgrade sits within a gloomier global picture. The OECD warned that world GDP growth could fall to around 2.1% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, down from 3.4% in 2025, in a scenario where the conflict in the Middle East and its disruption to energy markets persist. Fiscal expansions, it said, would absorb much of the burden, but governments have little room to act given high public debt.

For an open, commodity-linked economy like Colombia’s, a weaker and more uncertain global backdrop adds another layer of risk on top of the domestic challenges.

Why it matters now

The timing is striking. The downgrade lands just days after Colombian markets rallied hard on the presidential first-round result, with stocks, bonds and the peso all gaining on hopes of a more business-friendly turn. The OECD’s read is a reminder that market sentiment and economic fundamentals can move in opposite directions.

Investors are pricing in political change; the OECD is pricing in arithmetic. The reconciliation of those two views will fall to the next government, which will have to convert optimism into the credible fiscal plan the body is calling for.