Economy: Nigeria
Key Facts
—Who. The Financial Markets Dealers Association (FMDA), an industry group of Nigerian market dealers, and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for the official figures.
—What. The FMDA projects a current account surplus of US$8.69 billion for July to September 2026, up from US$7.54 billion in the second quarter.
—Why. The FMDA cites weaker import demand and high oil prices. Brent crude averaged US$99.95 a barrel in September, up 14.43% on the month, it says.
—US link. Nigeria’s dollar earnings track the same oil prices that US drivers pay at the pump, and the naira is a frontier-market currency that US funds hold.
—Status. A projection. The CBN has not yet published official third-quarter data.
—As of. 8 October 2026, 00:30 GMT
Nigerian financial-market dealers expect the country to earn about US$8.69 billion more from abroad than it pays out in the third quarter of 2026. That would be the third quarterly rise in a row. The forecast leans on oil, so it matters to anyone holding the naira or watching energy markets.
What We Know
The Financial Markets Dealers Association (FMDA) expects Nigeria’s current account surplus to widen to US$8.69 billion in the third quarter of 2026. It made the call in its September monthly market report, covered by Nairametrics and ThisDay.
The current account tracks trade in goods and services plus income and transfers with the rest of the world. A surplus means more foreign currency came in than went out.
The FMDA names two drivers: lower import demand and persistently high crude oil prices. It says Brent crude averaged US$99.95 a barrel in September, up 14.43% on the month, amid tensions in the Middle East.
The official trend is already steep. The CBN’s provisional data put the second-quarter surplus at US$7.54 billion, up 67.9% from US$4.49 billion in the first quarter and 45.8% above the second quarter of 2025.
Inside the CBN data, the goods account surplus rose to US$10.12 billion from US$5.96 billion. Total exports reached US$20.08 billion, and refined petroleum product exports jumped 66.24% to US$3.94 billion.
Not every line improved. Net payments for services widened to US$4.67 billion, and the primary income deficit grew to US$4.20 billion, which the CBN linked mainly to higher dividend and interest payments to foreign investors.
Reserves, the Naira and Foreign Money
Gross external reserves rose to US$54.92 billion in September from US$53.81 billion in August, the FMDA reports. The CBN had put reserves at US$51.39 billion at the end of June.
The FMDA says the naira gained 1.93% in September, crediting stronger oil receipts and steady market confidence. BusinessDay’s month-end official closing rates imply a smaller gain of about 0.28%.
The CBN data also show that foreign portfolio inflows reached about US$7.09 billion in the second quarter, with foreign direct investment (long-term business investment) at about US$1.15 billion. A surplus alone does not settle a currency, because portfolio money can leave as quickly as it arrives.
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| COPPER | 6.61 | +0.03% | +46.70% | 6.61 | 6.71 | 6.61 | 39,543 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
What to Watch Next
The RT economic calendar lists Nigeria’s September inflation rate for around 15 October, with August’s reading at 15.39%. A softer figure could point to easing price pressure.
The CBN’s official third-quarter balance of payments will settle the forecast. Until then, the FMDA figure is the only public estimate we found.
What Is Not Known
The FMDA stresses that US$8.69 billion remains a projection until the CBN publishes official third-quarter data. Its own first-quarter figure of US$4.98 billion also differs from the CBN’s US$4.49 billion, so the two series are not directly comparable.
It is also unclear how long Brent can hold near US$100 a barrel. A sharp fall in oil prices would shrink the surplus quickly, because energy exports carry the goods account.
What It Means for US Readers and Investors
For US investors with naira bonds or other Nigerian exposure, a wide surplus means more dollars flowing in than out. That supports reserves and eases pressure on the currency, but it rests on oil prices that US consumers also feel.
US energy and shipping firms should note the rise in refined product exports, which ties Nigeria’s dollar income ever closer to global fuel markets. For related reading, see our reports on Nigeria’s new 40-block licensing round and the Port Harcourt refinery strike.
More: Nigeria news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Nigeria’s current account surplus?
The current account measures a country’s trade in goods and services, plus income and transfers, with the rest of the world. A surplus means Nigeria earned more abroad than it paid out.
How large is the forecast surplus?
The Financial Markets Dealers Association projects US$8.69 billion for July to September 2026. That compares with US$7.54 billion in the second quarter, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria.
Why is the surplus growing?
The FMDA cites lower import demand and high crude oil prices, with Brent averaging US$99.95 a barrel in September. CBN data show the goods surplus and refined product exports rising sharply in the second quarter.
Is the US$8.69 billion figure official?
No. It is a projection by an industry group, and the Central Bank of Nigeria has not yet published official third-quarter data.
Sources
ThisDay · Nairametrics · BusinessDay (CBN second-quarter data) · BusinessDay (reserves) · RT economic calendar
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief