Mexico’s IPC Breaks Four-Session Skid as Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Sparks Rally

The S&P/BMV IPC closed at 71,427.07 points on Friday, advancing 581.41 points or +0.82% and breaking a four-session losing streak that had been the benchmark’s worst run since late December. The session saw 134.1 million titles traded, with the index opening at 70,715.52, hitting an intraday high of 71,478.09, and never dipping below its open. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Mexican markets and Latin American financial news.

Vesta was the standout performer, surging 5.17% to MXN$61.08 after reporting Q4 revenues of US$76.4 million, a 17.2% year-over-year jump that underscored the ongoing nearshoring tailwind for industrial real estate. Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP) gained 3.31% to MXN$512.62, while Grupo Carso rose 3.03% to MXN$131.31 and OMA added 2.46%. Megacable gained 2.35% to MXN$67.20 following its own quarterly results.

On the downside, Volaris led the laggards, falling 2.36% to MXN$17.41 amid continued airline margin pressure. Despite the Friday rebound, the IPC posted a marginal weekly decline of 0.07% (some sources cite −0.06%), reflecting the damage from earlier sessions where hawkish Fed minutes and Middle East tensions had weighed on sentiment.

Year-to-date, the IPC is up approximately 11.1% from its 2025 close of 64,308.29 points, with the all-time intraday high of 72,111.41 reached on February 12. YTD standouts include Peñoles (+219.2%), while Genomma Lab (−38.7%) remains the worst performer in the sample.

The peso strengthened to 17.11–17.12 per dollar at Friday’s close, a roughly 0.78% appreciation from the prior session’s 17.25. The Banxico FIX rate was set at MXN$17.1722. On the week, the peso gained approximately 0.27% against the greenback, buoyed by the Supreme Court ruling that struck down Trump’s broad emergency tariffs and by a weaker U.S. dollar after disappointing Q4 GDP data.

The DXY index closed at 97.79, slipping 0.01% as it eased from near one-month highs following the tariff ruling. The index remains in a consolidation range between 96 and 100, above its 20-day moving average (97.14) but below the 200-day MA (98.42). Gold surged to US$5,108 per ounce (+2.21%), extending its safe-haven bid on Middle East tensions and the tariff turmoil. WTI crude dipped marginally to US$66.26 (−0.06%), while Brent closed at US$71.63.

Banxico minutes released on Thursday (Feb 19) from the February 5 meeting confirmed the unanimous decision to pause at 7.00% after twelve consecutive cuts. The board flagged upside risks from IEPS tax hikes and China-targeted tariffs, but left the door open for further adjustments. The market consensus points to a terminal rate of 6.50% by year-end, with the next potential move in May. Inflation stands at 3.77–3.79% (January), above Banxico’s 3.0% target, with convergence now pushed to Q2 2027.

The IPC closed at 71,427.07 (official BMV; TradingView’s BMV feed shows 71,436.55), recovering above its short-term moving averages after four sessions of retracement from the February 12 all-time high of 72,111.41. The daily candle was a strong bullish bar, opening at the low and closing near the high, suggesting renewed buying conviction.

The RSI reads 63.65/63.51 on its dual-line configuration, comfortably in neutral-bullish territory and well below overbought thresholds. The MACD histogram has flipped slightly negative at −92.53, reflecting the recent pullback, but the signal lines remain above the zero line at 1,269.79 and 1,177.26 respectively, maintaining the broader bullish trend. The 200-day SMA (blue line) sits at approximately 61,533, providing a strong long-term floor over 14% below the current level.

The U.S. Supreme Court delivered a landmark 6–3 ruling on Friday morning, declaring that President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping tariffs was unconstitutional. Chief Justice John Roberts wrote that the taxing power belongs “very clearly” to Congress, not the executive. Two Trump appointees — Barrett and Gorsuch — joined the majority, while Thomas, Alito, and Kavanaugh dissented.

Trump responded combatively, calling the ruling “a disgrace” and immediately announcing a replacement 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. Markets initially surged on the ruling but gains moderated as investors digested the replacement threat. Economists at Wolfe Research noted the practical impact on consumer prices may be minimal since other tariff authorities remain intact and the effective tariff rate dropped from roughly 10% to about 4.5%.

Meanwhile, U.S. Q4 GDP came in at just 1.4% annualized (vs. 2.5% expected), dragged down by a prolonged federal government shutdown. Core PCE inflation held at 3.0% year-over-year, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance. Wall Street closed higher nonetheless: S&P 500 +0.69% to 6,909.51, Dow +0.47% to 49,625.97, Nasdaq +0.90%. The VIX dropped 5.64% to 19.09, signaling reduced perceived risk.

Markets will monitor the fallout from the Supreme Court ruling as Trump moves to implement replacement tariffs via Section 122. The key question is whether Congress will codify or resist new trade measures, with the Republican caucus visibly split. The ongoing U.S.-Iran military tensions in the Middle East add a geopolitical risk premium that continues to support gold and oil.

In Mexico, Banxico’s next monetary policy decision is scheduled for March 26. With inflation stuck above target at 3.77–3.79% and GDP growth of just 0.5% in 2025, the central bank faces a delicate balancing act. The Q4 corporate earnings season continues, with more IPC components set to report in the coming days. The peso’s strength — now 15% firmer year-over-year against the dollar — has drawn criticism from northern Mexico exporters worried about competitiveness.

Deep Dive

For the complete picture, read our in-depth guide: Mexico Economy 2026: GDP, Peso, Nearshoring, Banxico and Trade

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