IPC Gains 0.5% to 64,987 as Peso Slips | Mexico Market Report, Oct 8
Key Facts
- The S&P/BMV IPC, Mexico’s main stock index, rose 0.52% to 64,987 on Thursday 8 October, led by Coca-Cola FEMSA, the exchange and the EFE news agency reported.
- The peso weakened about 1% to roughly 18.2 per US dollar, after the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) published minutes that left room for more rate cuts (RT 18.15; local reports 18.19 to 18.20).
- Mexico’s annual inflation rose to 3.45% in September, up from 3.26% in August and just below the 3.46% forecast, INEGI reported; prices rose 0.42% in the month.
- Oil prices jumped about 3%, lifting energy shares, while the S&P 500 fell 0.47% and the Nasdaq 1.25%.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket gives 56.0% to no Banxico rate change in November and 38.8% to a 25-basis-point cut (US$49,000 traded, as of 8:23 pm ET, 8 October). A day earlier no change was at 95.0%. Bets, not forecasts.
Today’s Focus
Mexican stocks rose on Thursday 8 October while the peso fell. The S&P/BMV IPC, the main index of the Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV), gained 0.52% to 64,987 points.
The peso lost about 1% against the US dollar after Banxico, the central bank, released the minutes of its latest rate meeting. They showed that the bank is open to cutting rates further whatever the US Federal Reserve does.
Inflation for September came in at 3.45%, a touch under forecasts but above August. For a US investor, a weaker peso and lower rates are the trade-off to watch.
What matters today. The minutes changed what bettors expect from Banxico in November, and the peso reacted first.
01 The session in one read
The IPC closed at 64,986.91 points, up 0.52% from Wednesday’s close of 64,653.33. We use the official close reported by the exchange. The RT series was still provisional at publication (64,872, up 0.34%) and differs from it.
The peso closed at about 18.2 per US dollar, between 18.15 (RT) and 18.20 (press reports). It was near 17.98 a day earlier, so the dollar gained roughly 1%.
On Wall Street, the S&P 500 fell 0.47% to 7,765 and the Nasdaq 1.25%. The Dow Jones rose 0.10%. Oil rose about 3% on Middle East tension and a hurricane that cut Gulf output.
The weaker peso reflects softer rate expectations. If Banxico cuts again, the yield advantage of Mexican bonds over US ones narrows. Stocks, helped by energy and consumer names, were not hurt.
We cannot say from one session whether the peso’s move will last. The Fed’s next steps and oil are the main outside forces.
02 The day’s numbers
| Measure | Level | Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P/BMV IPC | 64,987 | +0.52% | Official exchange close |
| USD/MXN | 18.15 | +0.94% | Peso weaker (RT) |
| Inflation, annual | 3.45% | — | Up from 3.26% in August |
| Inflation, monthly | 0.42% | — | Forecast 0.43% |
| S&P 500 | 7,765 | -0.47% | Wall Street slips |
The National Statistics Institute (INEGI) reported that the Inflation Rate for September was 3.45% a year, and 0.42% over the month. Analysts expected about 3.46% and 0.43%. The Core Inflation Rate and the Producer Price Index for September were also scheduled for the day; we could not verify those results at publication.
The Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes were published at 15:00 UTC (16:00 Lisbon). According to El CEO, they signalled flexibility on future rate cuts independent of the Fed’s decisions. Investing.com’s Mexican edition reported that the peso fell to 18.20 after the minutes. Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Live Market IntelligenceMexico — Live Market Board
Mexico — Live Market Board
Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
IPC MEX
64,851.89
+0.31%
+12.17%
64,653.33
66,121
65,405
108,886,187
USD/MXN
17.06
-0.24%
-8.58%
17.10
17.08
17.01
—
WALMEX
48.07
-0.62%
-14.38%
48.37
48.65
48.02
10,781,446
GMEXICO
223.28
+0.35%
+73.59%
222.50
226.18
222.17
1,325,556
FEMSA
201.19
-0.24%
+25.67%
201.67
206.71
199.56
750,706
CEMEX
19.32
+0.89%
+19.10%
19.15
19.35
19.04
14,327,054
GFNORTE
193.98
+1.18%
+14.36%
191.71
195.79
191.83
1,579,115
BIMBO
60.98
-0.96%
+11.89%
61.57
61.46
60.29
1,048,115
TELEVISA
9.71
+0.21%
+12.78%
9.69
9.75
9.60
577,851
AMX
19.80
-0.95%
+12.53%
19.99
20.05
19.70
58,058,525
GAP
366.23
+0.43%
-21.21%
364.68
370.85
362.82
226,946
ASUR
275.04
+1.25%
-15.28%
271.64
275.08
271.31
15,451
OMA
233.50
+0.62%
-6.48%
232.06
235.00
230.62
555,693
KOF
188.04
+0.86%
+18.94%
186.44
188.56
185.52
425,273
GRUMA
252.90
+0.11%
-21.85%
252.61
254.74
250.36
90,048
KIMBER
39.74
+0.43%
+8.85%
39.57
40.09
39.33
490,551
AMX ADR
23.38
-0.23%
+22.25%
23.43
23.49
23.06
1,347,445
03 Why it moved: Banxico and oil
Mexican markets reacted to the central bank first. The minutes, released in the middle of the New York session, showed no urgency to stop cutting, and the peso sold off from 17.98 toward 18.20.
Stocks held up because oil rose about 3% on tension in the Middle East and a hurricane that reduced production in the Gulf of Mexico. Energy and consumer shares gained, while technology shares fell in New York.
04 The day’s movers
| Stock | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Coca-Cola FEMSA | +3.22% | Best large-cap, about US$11 |
| Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico | -1.38% | Worst large-cap, about US$20 |
Percentage moves are from the EFE news agency’s close report based on exchange data. Share prices of 199.75 pesos and 357.08 pesos are converted at 18.15 pesos per US dollar.
05 The regional scoreboard
| Index | Country | Change |
|---|---|---|
| IPC | Mexico | +0.52% |
| Ibovespa | Brazil | +0.94% |
| IPSA | Chile | +0.22% |
| Merval | Argentina | +0.30% |
| COLCAP | Colombia | -0.37% |
| S&P 500 | United States | -0.47% |
Mexico was the second-best performer of the five markets, behind Brazil. Only Colombia fell.
06 The technical picture
The IPC is back below 65,000, the level it held on Tuesday. A close above 65,247, Tuesday’s close, would reopen the way to the recent highs.
For the peso, 18.00 has turned from support into resistance. A move beyond 18.20 would put it at its weakest in about a week.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket’s market on the Bank of Mexico’s decision in November priced no change at 56.0%, a 25-basis-point cut at 38.8% and a 25-basis-point rise at 3.8%, with US$49,000 traded (read at 8:23 pm ET on 8 October). A day earlier, no change stood at 95.0%.
The shift is large, but the market is thinly traded, so we treat it as a signal and not as a forecast. These prices are bets, not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
07 What to watch
- The peso at 18.20: A sustained move beyond this level would show that markets expect Banxico to cut again soon.
- Banxico’s November decision: Prediction markets now give a cut a meaningful chance; the next inflation reading will matter.
- Oil and the hurricane: Mexican Gulf output and crude prices affect Pemex, energy shares and the public finances.
- US earnings season: Third-quarter reports from US firms start next week and set the tone for the BMV.
Background: IPC Falls 1% to 64,653 as Energy Rises | Mexico Market Report, Oct 7.
Background: IPC Gains 0.7% to 64,975 as Peso Firms | Mexico Market Report, Oct 5.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did the Mexican stock market do on 8 October?
The S&P/BMV IPC rose 0.52% to 64,987 points, according to the exchange, as oil prices and consumer shares lifted it.
Why did the peso weaken on 8 October?
The peso fell about 1% to roughly 18.2 per US dollar after Banxico’s minutes showed room for further rate cuts, according to El CEO and Investing.com.
What was Mexico’s inflation in September?
INEGI reported annual inflation of 3.45% and monthly inflation of 0.42%. Analysts had expected about 3.46% and 0.43%.
What do prediction markets expect from Banxico?
Polymarket priced a 56.0% chance of no change and 38.8% for a 25-basis-point cut at the November decision as of 8:23 pm ET, 8 October. These are bets, not forecasts.
Market data: Bolsa Mexicana de Valores, RT; inflation: INEGI; stock moves: EFE; Banxico minutes: El CEO, Investing.com; prediction markets: Polymarket (as of 8:23 pm ET, 8 October 2026)
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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