Week Overview
The ECB decides Thursday whether to follow its June 25 bps hike — the first since 2023 — with another move or pause at the new 2.25% deposit rate. Polymarket prices a 90% hold probability, but the 70% market-implied chance of a September hike means Lagarde’s press conference (8:45 AM) carries more weight than the decision itself.
Flash PMIs on Friday deliver the first July readings across the US (cons. Manufacturing 54.5, Services 51.4), Eurozone (cons.
Manufacturing 51.6, Services 49.8), and UK (cons. Manufacturing 52.1, Services 49.4) — the first activity snapshot since the June Fed and ECB meetings.
UK June CPI (Wednesday, cons. 2.7% YoY vs 2.8%) continues easing as the oil shock fades.
German ZEW (Tuesday, cons. 15.7 vs 10.5) improving sharply would signal the European sentiment recession is breaking — a 5-point jump is the largest monthly improvement since the pre-Hormuz period.
German PPI turning negative (Monday, cons. −0.2% MoM) confirms producer deflation.
Canada CPI also goes negative (Monday, cons. −0.2% MoM). For LATAM, Colombia Q2 GDP (Tuesday 12:00 PM) tests growth under BanRep’s elevated rates.
Mexico delivers first-half July CPI and economic activity (Thursday). The SARB decides Thursday (prior 7.00%).
NZ Q2 CPI (Monday overnight, cons. 4.0% YoY) rounds out the inflation picture.
Japan and Colombia closed Monday. Peru closed Thursday.
⚠ Holiday Watch
Japan closed Monday (Marine Day). Colombia closed Monday (Independence Day).
Peru closed Thursday (National Day). Venezuela closed Friday (Simón Bolívar’s Birthday).
Three Themes That Will Define the Week
| 1 | ECB decision + flash PMIs — the post-hike pause and July activity. The ECB (Thursday 8:15 AM, cons. hold at 2.40% refi / 2.25% deposit) hiked 25 bps in June citing inflation “well above” target, with May EZ CPI at 3.2% and core at 2.5%. July is a non-projection meeting — no new staff forecasts, so the statement and Lagarde’s press conference (8:45 AM) carry the full signaling load. Markets price a 70% chance of a September hike after renewed US-Iran strikes pushed oil higher again. Friday’s flash PMIs are the verdict: EZ Services (cons. 49.8) edging toward 50 after months of contraction would support the hawks; staying sub-49 strengthens the doves. US Manufacturing (cons. 54.5) and Services (cons. 51.4) test whether the Warsh-era economy is holding up. UK Services (cons. 49.4) slipping below expansion would be notable. |
| 2 | UK CPI + German ZEW/PPI + Canada CPI — the disinflation wave broadens. Three economies report easing inflation this week. UK June CPI (Wednesday, cons. 2.7% vs. 2.8%) — core (cons. 2.5% vs. 2.6%) dropping toward the BoE’s 2% target would be the most dovish reading since the oil shock began, ahead of the August 6 BoE decision. German PPI (Monday, cons. −0.2% MoM) turning negative confirms the European producer-level energy shock has reversed. Canada CPI (Monday, cons. −0.2% MoM) going negative mirrors last week’s US headline. German ZEW (Tuesday, cons. 15.7 vs. 10.5) improving by 5 points would mark the sharpest monthly gain since early 2025 — the peace talks are lifting European business sentiment from its Hormuz-era trough. |
| 3 | Colombia Q2 GDP + Mexico CPI/activity + NZ CPI — LATAM and EM frame. Colombia Q2 GDP (Tuesday 12:00 PM, prior +2.2% YoY / +0.6% QoQ) tests whether the economy is accelerating under BanRep’s rates. Mexico’s first-half July CPI (Thursday, prior −0.11%) alongside economic activity (prior +2.30% YoY / +1.20% MoM) and unemployment (Friday, prior 2.70%) provide the Banxico context. The SARB decides Thursday (prior 7.00%) with South Africa CPI reported Wednesday. NZ Q2 CPI (Monday overnight, cons. 4.0% YoY vs. 3.1%) accelerating sharply would constrain the RBNZ. Japan CPI (Thursday overnight, cons. core 1.6%) and Korea Q2 GDP (Wednesday overnight) complete the Asia picture. |
Week at a Glance
● High impact · Medium impact Bold = market-moving release
| Day | Time | Region | Event | Cons. | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | 2:00 AM | EU | German PPI MoM (Jun) | −0.2% | 0.3% |
| Mon | 8:30 AM | CANADA | CPI MoM / YoY (Jun) | −0.2% / — | 1.0% / 3.2% |
| Mon | 6:45 PM | NZ | CPI QoQ / YoY (Q2) | 1.5% / 4.0% | 0.9% / 3.1% |
| Tue | 5:00 AM | EU | German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul) | 15.7 | 10.5 |
| Tue | 12:00 PM | COLOMBIA | GDP QoQ / YoY (Q2) | — | 0.6% / 2.2% |
| Wed | 2:00 AM | UK | CPI YoY / Core CPI YoY (Jun) | 2.7% / 2.5% | 2.8% / 2.6% |
| Wed | 7:00 PM | KOREA | GDP QoQ / YoY (Q2) | — | 1.8% / 3.8% |
| Thu | 8:15 AM | EU | ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jul) | 2.40% | 2.40% |
| Thu | 8:45 AM | EU | ECB Press Conference (Lagarde) | — | — |
| Thu | 8:00 AM | MEXICO | 1st Half-Month CPI (Jul) | — | −0.11% |
| Thu | 9:00 AM | S. AFRICA | SARB Interest Rate Decision | — | 7.00% |
| Fri | 3:30 AM | EU | German Manufacturing PMI (Jul, flash) | 50.5 | 50.3 |
| Fri | 4:00 AM | EU | EZ Manufacturing / Services PMI (Jul, flash) | 51.6 / 49.8 | 51.4 / 49.4 |
| Fri | 4:30 AM | UK | Manufacturing / Services PMI (Jul, flash) | 52.1 / 49.4 | 52.5 / 48.8 |
| Fri | 9:45 AM | US | Manufacturing / Services PMI (Jul, flash) | 54.5 / 51.4 | 53.9 / 51.2 |
Week in Context
Last week’s June CPI came in at −0.1% MoM with the annual rate clipping from 4.2% to roughly 3.9% — the gasoline-driven headline decline that Kiplinger warned not to overread. Core held at 0.3% / 2.9% YoY, exactly where the Warsh Fed is focused. PPI confirmed the energy reversal at 0.0% MoM (down from 1.1%). The BoC held at 2.25%. China Q2 GDP showed deceleration. This week tests whether the disinflation wave is broadening beyond energy. German PPI going negative (−0.2%) and Canada CPI going negative (−0.2%) suggest it is. German ZEW improving to 15.7 would be the clearest signal yet that the Hormuz-era pessimism is fading from European business sentiment. The ECB’s June hike to 2.25% was the first tightening since 2023 — Thursday’s hold is near-certain (Polymarket 90%), but Lagarde’s guidance on September (70% hike probability) is the real event. Flash PMIs on Friday map the July activity landscape. For LATAM, Colombia Q2 GDP tests BanRep’s tightening effectiveness. Mexico’s CPI and activity data frame the Banxico outlook. The BoE meets August 6 with UK CPI falling toward 2.7% — Wednesday’s data could make or break the cut case.
Monday — July 20
| Time | Region | Event | Cons. | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2:00 AM | EU | German PPI MoM (Jun) | ● | −0.2% | 0.3% |
| 2:00 AM | EU | German PPI YoY (Jun) | · | — | 2.2% |
| 7:25 AM | BRAZIL | BCB Focus Market Readout | ● | — | — |
| 8:30 AM | CANADA | CPI MoM (Jun) | ● | −0.2% | 1.0% |
| 8:30 AM | CANADA | CPI YoY (Jun) | ● | — | 3.2% |
| 8:30 AM | CANADA | Common CPI YoY (Jun) | · | 2.5% | 2.7% |
| 8:30 AM | CANADA | Trimmed CPI YoY (Jun) | · | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| 10:00 AM | US | US Leading Index MoM (Jun) | · | −0.1% | 0.1% |
| 3:00 PM | ARGENTINA | Trade Balance (Jun) | · | 2,060M | 3M |
| 6:45 PM | NZ | CPI QoQ (Q2) | ● | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| 6:45 PM | NZ | CPI YoY (Q2) | ● | 4.0% | 3.1% |
Two negative CPI prints open the week. German PPI (2:00 AM, cons. −0.2% vs +0.3%) turning negative confirms the European producer-level energy shock has reversed — this is the ECB’s last PPI input before Thursday.
Canada CPI (8:30 AM, cons. −0.2% vs +1.0%) going negative mirrors last week’s US headline; Common CPI (cons. 2.5% vs 2.7%) easing is the BoC’s core signal.
NZ Q2 CPI overnight (cons. 4.0% vs 3.1%) accelerating sharply would constrain the RBNZ.
Brazil Focus updates post-Copom expectations. Japan and Colombia closed.
Tuesday — July 21
| Time | Region | Event | Cons. | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2:00 AM | UK | Unemployment Rate (May) | · | 4.9% | 4.9% |
| 2:00 AM | UK | Average Earnings +Bonus (May) | ● | 4.5% | 4.4% |
| 4:00 AM | EU | ECB Bank Lending Survey | ● | — | — |
| 5:00 AM | EU | German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul) | ● | 15.7 | 10.5 |
| 5:00 AM | EU | ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul) | · | 11.5 | 9.5 |
| 7:30 AM | EU | Buba President Nagel Speaks | · | — | — |
| 8:00 AM | MEXICO | Retail Sales MoM / YoY (May) | ● | — | 0.8% / 4.4% |
| 11:00 AM | COLOMBIA | Trade Balance USD (May) | · | — | −1.761B |
| 12:00 PM | COLOMBIA | GDP QoQ (Q2) | ● | — | 0.6% |
| 12:00 PM | COLOMBIA | GDP YoY (Q2) | ● | — | 2.2% |
German ZEW (5:00 AM, cons. 15.7 vs 10.5) improving 5 points would be the sharpest monthly gain since early 2025 — the Iran peace talks and oil decline are lifting European financial sentiment from its war-era trough.
The ECB Bank Lending Survey shows credit conditions under the new 2.25% rate. UK Average Earnings (cons.
4.5% vs 4.4%) accelerating complicates the BoE cut case ahead of Wednesday’s CPI. Colombia Q2 GDP (12:00 PM, prior +2.2% YoY / +0.6% QoQ) tests whether the economy is growing under BanRep’s elevated rates.
Mexico retail sales (prior +4.4% YoY) add demand data. Nagel speaks — the Buba president’s hawkish views shape ECB expectations.
Wednesday — July 22
| Time | Region | Event | Cons. | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2:00 AM | UK | CPI YoY (Jun) | ● | 2.7% | 2.8% |
| 2:00 AM | UK | Core CPI YoY (Jun) | ● | 2.5% | 2.6% |
| 2:00 AM | UK | PPI Input MoM (Jun) | · | −0.6% | 0.2% |
| 2:00 AM | UK | PPI Output MoM (Jun) | · | −0.3% | 0.5% |
| 4:00 AM | S. AFRICA | CPI MoM / YoY (Jun) | ● | — | 0.7% / 4.5% |
| 1:30 PM | BRAZIL | Foreign Exchange Flows | · | — | 1.012B |
| 3:00 PM | ARGENTINA | Economic Activity YoY (May) | · | — | 1.6% |
| 7:00 PM | KOREA | GDP QoQ (Q2) | ● | — | 1.8% |
| 7:00 PM | KOREA | GDP YoY (Q2) | ● | — | 3.8% |
| 9:30 PM | AUSTRALIA | Employment Change (Jun) | · | 15.2K | 40.3K |
| 9:30 PM | AUSTRALIA | Unemployment Rate (Jun) | · | 4.4% | 4.4% |
UK CPI (2:00 AM, cons. 2.7% vs. 2.8%) — core at 2.5% approaching the BoE’s target would strengthen the August 6 cut case. PPI Input (cons. −0.6%) and Output (cons. −0.3%) both turning negative confirms the UK producer pipeline has reversed from the oil shock. South Africa CPI (prior 4.5%) is the SARB’s last input before Thursday’s decision. Korea Q2 GDP overnight tests Asian growth momentum. Australia employment (cons. +15.2K vs. +40.3K) decelerating would support RBA caution.
Thursday — July 23
| Time | Region | Event | Cons. | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8:00 AM | MEXICO | 1st Half-Month CPI (Jul) | ● | — | −0.11% |
| 8:00 AM | MEXICO | 1st Half-Month Core CPI (Jul) | · | — | 0.19% |
| 8:00 AM | MEXICO | Economic Activity MoM / YoY (May) | ● | — | 1.20% / 2.30% |
| 8:15 AM | EU | ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jul) | ● | 2.40% | 2.40% |
| 8:15 AM | EU | ECB Deposit Facility Rate | ● | 2.25% | 2.25% |
| 8:30 AM | US | Initial Jobless Claims | · | 211K | 208K |
| 8:45 AM | EU | ECB Press Conference (Lagarde) | ● | — | — |
| 9:00 AM | S. AFRICA | SARB Interest Rate Decision | ● | — | 7.00% |
| 10:00 AM | EU | EZ Consumer Confidence (Jul, flash) | · | −16.9 | −17.7 |
| 7:30 PM | JAPAN | National Core CPI YoY (Jun) | ● | 1.6% | 1.4% |
| 7:30 PM | JAPAN | National CPI YoY (Jun) | · | — | 1.5% |
| 8:30 PM | JAPAN | Manufacturing PMI (Jul, flash) | ● | 55.0 | 54.8 |
The ECB (8:15 AM, cons. hold at 2.40%) is a near-certainty — the question is September. Lagarde’s press conference (8:45 AM) will be parsed for whether the June hike was “one and done” or the start of a tightening cycle.
Markets price a 70% September hike. Key language: any reference to “data-dependent” with emphasis on core CPI (2.5%) versus headline (3.2%) shapes expectations.
Mexico first-half July CPI (prior −0.11%) shows whether the June energy-driven deflation extended into July. SARB (9:00 AM, prior 7.00%) faces 4.5% CPI — the cut case is strengthening.
Japan CPI (cons. core 1.6% vs 1.4%) accelerating supports BoJ normalization. Japan flash Manufacturing PMI (cons.
55.0) opens the Friday PMI cascade.
Friday — July 24
| Time | Region | Event | Cons. | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2:00 AM | UK | Retail Sales MoM (Jun) | · | −0.1% | 1.2% |
| 3:00 AM | EU | GfK German Consumer Climate (Aug) | · | −28.5 | −29.2 |
| 3:15 AM | EU | French Manufacturing / Services PMI (Jul, flash) | ● | 51.2 / 47.7 | 51.2 / 46.8 |
| 3:30 AM | EU | German Manufacturing / Services PMI (Jul, flash) | ● | 50.5 / 49.0 | 50.3 / 48.6 |
| 4:00 AM | EU | EZ Manufacturing / Services PMI (Jul, flash) | ● | 51.6 / 49.8 | 51.4 / 49.4 |
| 4:30 AM | UK | Manufacturing / Services PMI (Jul, flash) | ● | 52.1 / 49.4 | 52.5 / 48.8 |
| 8:00 AM | MEXICO | Unemployment Rate (Jun) | · | — | 2.70% |
| 9:45 AM | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul, flash) | ● | 54.5 | 53.9 |
| 9:45 AM | US | S&P Global Services PMI (Jul, flash) | ● | 51.4 | 51.2 |
| 10:00 AM | US | New Home Sales (Jun) | · | 604K | 580K |
| 1:00 PM | US | Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | · | — | 452 |
Flash PMIs cascade: France (3:15 AM), Germany (3:30 AM), Eurozone (4:00 AM), UK (4:30 AM), US (9:45 AM). EZ Services (cons.
49.8) edging toward 50 after months of contraction would validate the ECB’s pause and support the hawks arguing for September. German Services (cons.
49.0) still below 50 tempers the optimism. UK Services (cons.
49.4) below expansion complicates the BoE’s August decision — even as CPI falls, activity is weakening. US Manufacturing (cons.
54.5) holding above 54 reinforces the growth resilience narrative. GfK Consumer Climate (cons. −28.5 vs −29.2) improving slightly confirms the ZEW signal.
The Bottom Line
The ECB’s June hike was the plot twist — this week reveals whether it was the climax or just act one. Lagarde’s press conference Thursday is the event: if she signals September is live (70% market probability), European rates reprice higher; if she pushes back, the “one and done” narrative takes hold.
Flash PMIs Friday test whether the ECB hiked into improving or deteriorating conditions — EZ Services edging toward 50 would justify the move, while slipping further into contraction would raise questions. The disinflation wave is broadening: German PPI negative, Canada CPI negative, UK CPI falling to 2.7% with core at 2.5%.
German ZEW improving by 5 points would confirm the Hormuz-era pessimism is breaking. Colombia Q2 GDP tests LATAM’s growth resilience.
The oil shock is fading from the data. The question now is what’s underneath — and Thursday’s ECB and Friday’s PMIs will tell us.
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