Iron Ore Prices Rally After Recent Dip, Market Watches Chinese Demand Signals

Iron ore prices climbed back above $98 per metric ton Tuesday morning, as shown on SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index futures data.

The benchmark commodity traded at $98.40, marking a modest recovery after Monday’s settlement of $97.41, which had represented a 0.79% daily decline. The steel-making ingredient continues its volatile 2025 performance.

Prices have fallen nearly 6% since January despite recent upward momentum. Traders attribute the overnight bounce to positioning ahead of new Chinese economic data expected later this week.

Market participants maintain cautious optimism while closely monitoring Chinese port inventories. Current stockpiles stand at levels sufficient for steady consumption without triggering panic buying or selling.

Steel mill purchasing strategies have shifted toward just-in-time orders rather than aggressive stockpiling. Supply conditions remain stable with consistent shipments from major producers.

Australian Pilbara exports continue at expected levels, while Brazilian output shows no significant disruption to global supply chains. Technical indicators present mixed signals.

While the recent price action broke above short-term moving averages, longer-term indicators suggest market sentiment remains bearish. Key support rests at $95.40, with traders watching this level closely for potential breakthrough that could accelerate selling.

“The market finds itself teetering on key technical support despite gains in other China-linked commodities,” noted one analyst reviewing Tuesday’s early price action. Current RSI readings suggest oversold conditions may limit further downside in the near term.

Forecasts for iron ore vary significantly among major financial institutions. UBS projects prices averaging $100 per ton through 2025 before declining to $95 in 2026.

Trading Economics presents a more bearish outlook, expecting prices to reach $96.22 by quarter-end and $90.53 within twelve months. Market watchers also focus on upcoming policy decisions that could impact global steel trade flows.

The pending expiration of tariff suspension periods might reshape demand patterns across major economies. The current price action represents a critical juncture for iron ore.

A sustained move above $99 could signal renewed bullish momentum, while failure to hold current levels may trigger additional profit-taking. Traders now await fresh Chinese manufacturing data to provide clearer direction for this essential industrial commodity.

LatAm Markets: Live Signals → — real-time movers, turnover leaders and FX across Latin America.