Global Economy Briefing — September 4, 2026
Wall Street rallies as Fed's Waller signals rate-hike patience, July payrolls fall 23,000, and Brazil's 14% Selic draws carry trades.
Rio Times Global Economy Briefing
The Big Three
- Wall Street rebounds as yields slip The Dow climbed 1.18% to 53,686, the S&P 500 1.06% to 7,748 and the Nasdaq 1.40% to 26,584 after Fed Governor Christopher Waller urged patience on rates, reviving risk appetite.
- Fed September still a coin flip US July CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year and the economy lost 23,000 jobs, pulling market odds for a September hike down to roughly one-third to one-half.
- Brazil’s high Selic meets softer dollar Brazil’s policy rate stands at 14.00%, one of the highest real rates among major economies, while the dollar index has eased, sharpening focus on carry trades.
United States
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| July CPI (y/y) | 3.4% | 3.5% | Cooling but still above 2% target |
| Core CPI (y/y) | 2.5% | 2.6% | Further progress on underlying inflation |
| July nonfarm payrolls | -23,000 | +20,000 (June, revised) | Surprise job loss, supports hold case |
| PCE inflation (July, y/y) | 3.7% | — | Still well above the Fed’s target |
| US 10Y yield (latest) | 4.773% | above 4.81% recent high | Easing after Waller comments |
Europe & United Kingdom
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| STOXX 600 | ≈649.1 (+0.5%) | recent one-month low | Rebound as yields ease |
| German 10Y Bund yield | ≈3.35% | multi-year highs | Drifting lower with US move |
| UK 10Y Gilt yield | ≈5.17% | recent highs | Pullback helps risk assets |
Asia-Pacific & Emerging Markets
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Japan 10Y JGB yield | ≈2.97% | near 3% mid-1990s high | Signalling BOJ shift risk |
| Nikkei 225 | ≈64,214 (-0.17%) | recent highs | Pauses as yen spikes on BOJ bets |
| Brent crude | ≈US$95–97/bbl | late-month highs | Supported by Middle East tensions |
| Spot gold | ≈US$4,426–4,475/oz | +1.4–2.0% | Bid as investors hedge Fed and geopolitical risks |
| Selic policy rate (Brazil) | 14.00% | 14.50% (April) | Very tight stance, key for BRL and local debt |
| Instrument | Level | Session |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,748 | +1.06% |
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 185,188 | -0.01% |
| USD/BRL | 5.1077 | +0.32% |
Global economy — Source: RT close, 2026-09-03. Figures rendered directly from the feed.
Today’s Economic Calendar — Friday, September 4, 2026
| Time | Country | Event | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03:35 | JP | 3-Month Bill Auction | — | 1.079 |
| 05:00 | JP | CB Leading Index | 116.8 | 116.5 |
| 05:00 | JP | Coincident Indicator | — | 0.6 |
| 05:00 | JP | Leading Index | — | — |
| 05:00 | JP | Coincident Index | 118.8 | 118.5 |
| 06:00 | DE | Factory Orders | 0.3 | 3.1 |
| 07:30 | DE | S&P Global Construction PMI | 42 | 42.1 |
| 12:00 | MX | Gross Fixed Investment | 4.8 | 1.1 |
| 12:00 | MX | Gross Fixed Investment | 0.4 | -0.4 |
| 12:30 | US | Participation Rate | 61.4 | 61.4 |
| 12:30 | US | Average Weekly Hours | 34.3 | 34.3 |
| 12:30 | US | Average Hourly Earnings | 3 | 3.2 |
| 12:30 | US | Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| 12:30 | US | Non Farm Payrolls | 56 | -23 |
| 12:30 | US | Average Hourly Earnings | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 12:30 | US | Nonfarm Payrolls Private | 45 | 30 |
| 12:30 | US | U-6 Unemployment Rate | 8 | 7.9 |
| 12:30 | US | Government Payrolls | -11 | -53 |
Live Market IntelligenceGlobal Markets — Live Board
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Global Markets — Live Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 7,751 | +0.29% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NDX | 29,799 | +0.93% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DJI | 53,810 | +0.03% | — | — | — | — | — |
| RUT | 3,041 | +0.46% | — | — | — | — | — |
| US10Y | 4.6760 | -0.17% | — | — | — | — | — |
| VIX | 14.60 | -4.45% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DAX | 26,331 | -0.23% | — | — | — | — | — |
| FTSE | 10,833 | -0.10% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CAC | 8,675 | -0.46% | — | — | — | — | — |
| STOXX | 659.48 | -0.16% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIKKEI | 67,524 | +0.83% | — | — | — | — | — |
| HSI | 25,440 | -0.83% | — | — | — | — | — |
| KOSPI | 6,579 | +3.68% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CSI300 | 4,691 | +0.58% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIFTY | 24,436 | -0.15% | — | — | — | — | — |
| TSX | 36,619 | +0.39% | — | — | — | — | — |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
01 Risk appetite returns, but nerves stay close
US stocks rallied overnight, with the Dow up 624 points, the S&P 500 up 1.06% to 7,748 and the Nasdaq up 1.40% to 26,584. Easing Treasury yields and dovish Fed comments drew investors back into equities.
Bond markets have swung from a sharp sell-off toward calmer waters: the US 10-year yield, which recently touched around 4.81%, has retreated to 4.773%, while German Bund and UK gilt yields are also off multi-year highs. For Latin America, and Brazil in particular, lower developed-market yields ease pressure on local curves and support demand for high-carry assets, but the combination of still-elevated global borrowing costs and volatile oil prices keeps funding conditions tight.
Across commodities, Brent crude is trading around US$95–97 a barrel after Middle East tensions and supply worries pushed it to six-week highs, while gold has rebounded towards $4,480 an ounce as investors seek protection against policy and geopolitical shocks. Higher oil is a double-edged sword for Brazil and its neighbours: it benefits producers but complicates inflation-fighting central banks that are already running some of the world’s highest real interest rates.
02 Fed’s September crossroads and the dollar
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller signalled patience on additional rate hikes, and markets listened. Treasury yields fell, the dollar index dropped 0.63% to 98.973, and rate futures trimmed the odds of a September move to roughly one-third to one-half.
The case for a hold rests on cooler inflation and a shock July payrolls loss of 23,000 jobs. The consumer price index rose 3.4% from a year earlier, with core at 2.5%, while the PCE measure preferred by the Fed remains sticky at 3.7%.
For Brazil, a softer dollar is welcome news. It reduces imported inflation pressure and can stabilise the real, but the Selic at 14.00% still makes domestic credit expensive and clouds the growth outlook for 2026.
03 Latin America’s high-carry bet under strain
Brazil remains the region’s clearest high-yield trade, with the Selic at 14.00% drawing foreign capital into local bonds and the real. Yet that carry comes with risk: fiscal slippage, a slowing China, and oil-driven inflation could force investors to rethink positions quickly.
Mexico publishes gross fixed investment data on Friday, with consensus near 4.8% year-on-year after a weak prior reading. A strong number would support the peso and reinforce Mexico’s appeal as a nearshoring destination, but a miss could add to doubts about the region’s growth momentum.
Colombia’s producer price index is due, with estimates near 1.4%. If it comes in hot, the central bank will have less room to ease, and Andean assets could underperform Brazil and Mexico into the weekend.
What to watch today and this week
- Thursday: US jobless claims and Fed speakers
- Friday: US nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, Mexico gross fixed investment, and CFTC speculative positioning for BRL, MXN, oil, gold and S&P 500
- Next week: US CPI revisions, Brazil trade balance, COPOM minutes and China activity data
- Ongoing: Middle East oil supply risks, Brazilian fiscal framework votes in Congress, and global bond market repricing
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did US stocks rally?
Fed Governor Christopher Waller signalled patience on rate hikes, which eased bond yields and revived risk appetite.
What is Brazil’s Selic rate now?
Brazil’s Selic policy rate stands at 14.00%, one of the highest real rates among major economies.
How does the weaker dollar affect Latin America?
A softer dollar reduces imported inflation and can stabilise currencies like the real, but high local rates still weigh on growth.
What is the key US data on Friday?
Nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings and CFTC positioning for several commodities and currencies.
Why is gold rising?
Gold is bid as investors seek protection against Fed uncertainty, geopolitical risks and sticky inflation.
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