Iron Ore Faces Mounting Pressure as Supply Rises and Technicals Signal Further Downside

Iron ore prices continued their slide over the past 24 hours, with the SGX TSI 62% Fe CFR China Index trading near $95.30 per tonne on Tuesday morning.

Data from the Singapore Exchange and Dalian Commodity Exchange confirm this figure, as the July contract dipped 0.21% to $94.50 per tonne and the September Dalian contract fell 0.28% to 702.5 yuan ($97.79) per tonne.

These declines extend a second consecutive session of losses, driven by mounting supply and tempered only slightly by steady Chinese steel demand.

Official shipping data show Australian and Brazilian exports climbed nearly 2% last week to 29.19 million tonnes, the highest weekly volume since December.

Analysts expect further increases in shipments as miners aim to hit quarterly targets by the end of June. Chinese mills, meanwhile, have increased their use of imported cargoes, drawn by competitive pricing.

However, China’s iron ore imports fell 4.9% in May from April, totaling 98.13 million tonnes, as mills tapped domestic port inventories and anticipated a seasonal slowdown in steel consumption.

Portside inventories dropped 2.8% to 133 million tonnes by the end of May, their lowest since February, but remain comfortably above the levels that trigger panic buying.

Steel production in China remains resilient, with daily hot metal output at 2.42 million tonnes, up 2.6% year-on-year. Healthy steel margins support continued output, but the property sector’s weakness and cautious procurement strategies have capped restocking activity.

Market sentiment also received a modest boost from hopes that ongoing US-China trade talks will ease tensions, though this has not reversed the prevailing downtrend.

Technical and Fundamental Pressures Weigh on Iron Ore Market

Technical analysis of the 4-hour and daily charts underscores the bearish momentum. The price sits below all major moving averages, including the 9, 20, 50, and 200-period lines.

On the daily chart, the 9-day moving average has crossed beneath the 20-day, reinforcing the downward trend. The 50-day moving average continues to diverge from the 200-day, a classic sign of persistent weakness.

Both timeframes show the price trading below the Ichimoku cloud, with Bollinger Bands indicating sustained volatility to the downside. Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD momentum indicators remain negative, offering no sign of reversal.

Physical market activity reflects these trends. Recent trades include 170,000 tonnes of 62% Fe Pilbara Blend fines at a slight premium to the June index, but overall buying interest remains subdued.

Traders and mills continue to favor lower-grade ores for cost efficiency, while high-grade cargoes see limited uptake. With key support at $95.40 under pressure, a break below this level could accelerate losses toward the April low of $91.75 or even the psychological $90 mark.

The market’s direction remains tied to supply discipline and any surprise in Chinese demand or policy. For now, the technical and fundamental landscape both point to further downside risk.

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This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief

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