IPC Drops 1.1% as ‘El Mencho’ Fallout Crushes Airlines and Rattles Peso

The Big Three

Market Snapshot

Equities & Corporate

The S&P/BMV IPC fell 802.78 points (−1.12%) to 70,633.77, erasing Friday’s 0.83% advance and pulling the index 2.0% below its February 12 all-time high of 72,111.41. Volume hit 145.2 million shares, well above average, as investors rushed to de-risk transport and consumer-facing names.

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The carnage was concentrated in travel. Aeroméxico plunged 7.3%, Volaris 6.4%, GAP 5.3%, ASUR 3.0%, and OMA 1.9% after 252 CJNG-linked blockades across 20 states forced ~300 flight cancellations and the full shutdown of Manzanillo airport. El Financiero estimated the airport and airline sector alone shed over MXN 28 billion in capitalization in one session, with GAP accounting for nearly MXN 15.7 billion of that.

Femsa reported 200 attacks on OXXO convenience stores and Oxxo Gas stations, with some employees injured but no customer casualties. Walmart México and Soriana temporarily shuttered locations in Jalisco, Guanajuato, and Michoacán. On the positive side, miners Gmexico and Peñoles were among the few bright spots in recent sessions, buoyed by record gold and elevated copper prices.

Currency & Monetary Policy

The peso weakened 0.75% on Monday, with USD/MXN closing at 17.2659 in spot trading after opening around 17.14, according to Banco de México data cited by El Financiero. The move reversed Friday’s 0.27% gain and represented the sharpest single-session depreciation since early February. Intraday, the pair ranged between 17.1670 and 17.2950.

Banco Base attributed the weakness to uncertainty over the CJNG’s response duration and its potential to disrupt logistics and tourism ahead of the World Cup hosting in June. Despite Monday’s sell-off, the peso remains among the best-performing EM currencies over 12 months, appreciating roughly 14.7% against the dollar on the back of nearshoring flows and a still-restrictive Banxico stance.

Banxico paused its rate-cutting cycle on February 5, holding at 7.00% after 12 consecutive cuts from 11.00%. The decision was unanimous. Minutes released February 19 confirmed the board will “evaluate additional adjustments” depending on inflation’s trajectory. Analysts at BBVA México, Banamex, and Banorte expect the next cut in March or May, with a terminal rate of 6.50% for 2026.

Technical Analysis — S&P/BMV IPC Daily

Monday’s session printed a bearish engulfing candle with a wide range (O: 71,171.68, H: 71,713.48, L: 70,141.84, C: 70,633.77), failing at the 71,126 Ichimoku cloud resistance and closing below the Tenkan-sen. The intraday low of 70,141 tested the Kijun-sen support zone around 70,219 before buyers stepped in to defend the level.

The RSI retreated from near-overbought territory, with the two-line reading at 63.11 / 57.12 — still constructive but losing momentum. The MACD remains in positive territory (1,231.91 / 1,080.37) but the histogram has turned negative at −151.54, signaling a potential bearish crossover if selling persists through the week.

Price remains comfortably above the Ichimoku cloud and well above the 200-day SMA at 61,603 — still over 14% below the current level. The broader uptrend from the October 2025 lows around 49,800 remains intact. Key support sits at the 69,311 Senkou Span B level; a break below that opens the door to 67,948 (the upper Bollinger Band shelf). On the upside, reclaiming 71,127 would re-target the ATH at 72,111.

Key Levels

Global Context & Commodities

Wall Street extended its losses on Monday as tariff uncertainty continued to weigh. The Dow fell 821 points (−1.66%) to 48,804.06, the S&P 500 dropped 1.04% to 6,837.75, and the Nasdaq shed 1.13% to 22,627.27. European markets also closed in the red, led by the DAX (−1.06%) and the CAC 40 (−0.22%).

WTI crude pulled back to US$65.76 (−1.5%) and Brent to US$70.40 (−1.3%), retreating from six-month highs as US-Iran nuclear talks entered a third round. The DXY dollar index fell 0.24% to 97.56, extending a multi-month slide that has broadly supported EM currencies including the peso.

Gold surged to a record ~US$5,168/oz, driven by persistent central-bank buying and safe-haven demand amid the tariff overhang. Bitcoin dropped 5.35% on the day to ~US$64,000, reflecting a broader risk-off rotation. Trump’s 15% Section 122 tariffs take effect today (February 24), replacing the IEEPA levies struck down by the Supreme Court; USMCA-compliant goods are exempt, which shields a significant portion of Mexico’s export basket.

Looking Ahead

The immediate catalyst is whether the CJNG violence subsides. Walmart México, Soriana, and Femsa are reopening locations as conditions stabilize, but any renewed flare-up in Jalisco or neighboring states could extend the airport and airline sell-off. Investors will also watch for potential US State Department travel-advisory upgrades, which would hit tourism sentiment hard ahead of the World Cup.

Nvidia reports earnings on Wednesday, a key event for global risk appetite. Banxico’s next decision is March 26; the minutes suggest a cut is possible but not certain, with BBVA México and Banorte penciling in a 25bps reduction. On the macro front, Mexico’s IGAE activity indicator for December (+3.3% YoY, original) came in above consensus, offering some counterweight to the weak headline GDP print.

Verdict

Monday’s 802-point drop was a classic security-shock trade: violent, concentrated in a handful of names, and likely to fade once airports reopen and road blockades lift. The fact that the broader IPC held above 70,000 and the structural uptrend from 49,800 remains intact suggests the damage is event-driven rather than structural.

The bigger risk for Mexico is the macro backdrop. GDP growth of 0.6% in 2025 is the weakest since the pandemic, industry contracted 1.3% for the full year, and Banxico’s rate pause at 7.00% means monetary relief is limited. Section 122 tariffs taking effect today add another layer of uncertainty, even with USMCA exemptions protecting most Mexican exports.

Technically, watch the 69,311 Senkou Span B level as the line in the sand. As long as that holds, the IPC’s 11% YTD gain and proximity to its ATH argue for buying the dip. A break below 69,311 would shift the narrative to something more concerning. For now, the bull case remains intact — but the peso needs to stabilize below 17.30 to confirm the all-clear.