HONDURAS · MIGRATION
Key Facts
- —The country Honduras is one of the main sources of migrants heading for the US southern border and one of the main destinations of US deportation flights. President Nasry Asfura, of the conservative National Party, has governed since January 2026.
- —What happened On Sunday 18 October the US Embassy in Tegucigalpa warned Hondurans that crossing the US border illegally leads only to detention and immediate deportation. It urged them not to trust the promises that draw people into caravans.
- —The numbers Honduras received 37,968 deported citizens between 1 January and 15 October 2026, about 132 a day. Of these, 29,568 came back by air and 8,400 by land.
- —Why now Groups of several hundred people, some of more than 1,500, have left San Pedro Sula for the Guatemalan border since 20 September. The first group broke up in Guatemala within days.
- —The trend This year’s count already equals 88 percent of the 42,928 returns of 2025. Returns slowed in the first half of October to about 87 a day.
- —What it means for you Almost nine in ten returns this year came from the United States. Remittances from Hondurans in the US still rose 11.2 percent, to US$9.94 billion in the first nine months.
- —Still open How many caravan members have reached Mexico or the US border, and whether the slower October pace of returns will last.
The US Embassy in Tegucigalpa warned Hondurans on Sunday 18 October not to believe the promises that draw people into migrant caravans, as official figures showed 37,968 Hondurans deported so far this year. Crossing the US southern border illegally “will only lead you to detention and immediate deportation,” the embassy wrote on X.
The warning matters in the United States because Honduras is where much of Washington’s deportation policy lands: almost nine in ten Hondurans returned this year came from the US. It also follows a revival of caravans leaving the northern city of San Pedro Sula since 20 September.
The previous count, to the end of September, is covered in Honduras Returned Migrants Reach 36,658 by September. The new figures run to 15 October and arrive with a fresh US warning.
What the Embassy Said
The message went out at 9 a.m. local time on Sunday on the embassy’s official X account, with a short video and the hashtag #NiLoIntentes, roughly “don’t even try it”. It told Hondurans not to fall for false promises and not to risk their future, because an illegal crossing “will only lead you to detention and immediate deportation”.
In the video, the embassy questioned whether a caravan could take anyone to the United States and said no caravan would even get close to the border, the Honduran news site Hondudiario reported. It also repeated that the US border “is closed to illegal immigration”.
The embassy has used the same line since the caravans began again. On Monday 21 September, a day after the first group left, it warned that anyone who tries to enter the United States illegally “will be deported”, the news site Tu Nota reported.
What the Deportation Figures Show
Honduras’s National Migration Institute (INM), the government agency that runs the border posts and receives citizens sent back from abroad, counted 37,968 deported Hondurans between 1 January and 15 October 2026. That is about 132 people a day, the newspapers La Prensa and Proceso Digital reported from the institute’s figures on 17 October.
Most came home by plane: 29,568 by air and 8,400 by land, a split of roughly 78 to 22. The United States, Mexico and Guatemala sent back the largest numbers, but the mid-October release does not break the total down by country.
The previous INM count, to 30 September, showed 36,658 returns, of which 32,851 came from the United States, 3,716 from Mexico and 91 from Guatemala, El Heraldo reported. That means almost nine in ten Hondurans returned this year were sent back by the United States.
Comparing the two counts, about 1,310 people were returned in the first 15 days of October, roughly 87 a day. That is well below the year’s average, and the institute has not explained the slower pace.
The 2026 total already equals 88 percent of the 42,928 returns recorded in all of 2025. At this year’s pace it would pass that mark between late November and mid-December.
The Caravans Behind the Warning
The first group in this new wave left San Pedro Sula, Honduras’s industrial capital, on Sunday 20 September. Guatemala’s migration institute (IGM) identified about 400 Hondurans entering the country on 21 and 22 September, of whom more than 250 entered legally and 106 were told to leave, La Prensa reported.
Within days the group had split into small parties travelling by bus or on their own, said the IGM’s director, Danilo Rivera. Hondurans can cross into Guatemala freely under the CA-4 regional agreement, but Mexico requires them to hold a visa.
More groups of between 300 and more than 1,500 people left the city’s Gran Central Metropolitana bus terminal in the days before 17 October, the news site ICN Digital reported. Some took buses to the Corinto and Agua Caliente crossings into Guatemala, and Honduran authorities tightened checks there to allow only legal crossings.
People interviewed at the terminal named unemployment and poverty as their reasons for leaving, ICN Digital reported. The calls to join spread mainly through social media.
A Political Fight at Home
The caravans have become a domestic political issue. Lawmakers of the governing National Party blame Libre, the left-wing Liberty and Refoundation party that governed under Xiomara Castro until January 2026, and have asked the public prosecutor to investigate the organisers, ICN Digital reported.
President Asfura said “someone is promoting this exodus as a business”, without naming anyone, ICN Digital reported. Libre had not responded publicly by 17 October, and the accusations have not been proven.
The national police chief, Commissioner General Rigoberto Oseguera, said in remarks El Heraldo published on 3 October that gangs Honduras has declared terrorist groups may try to use the caravans to flee the country. He added that calls to join a caravan made no sense, because the conditions for reaching the United States illegally are far stricter than in past decades.
What It Means for You
For US readers, the embassy post is the public face of a deterrence policy, and the INM numbers show where that policy ends. Almost nine in ten of this year’s returns came from the United States, and almost four in five of all returns arrive by air.
The deportations have not cut the money flowing the other way. Remittances from Hondurans in the United States reached US$9.94 billion in the first nine months of 2026, up 11.2 percent on a year earlier, Banco Central de Honduras data published by El Heraldo show.
For travellers, the caravans mean extra checks and crowds at the Corinto and Agua Caliente border posts and at the San Pedro Sula bus terminal. The embassy message is aimed at illegal crossings and does not change the rules for visitors or for Hondurans with valid US visas.
What Is Not Known
It is not known how many caravan members have reached Mexico or the US border this year, and neither government has published a count. The INM figures also do not show how many of those returned had travelled in a caravan.
The institute has not published the country breakdown for the first half of October, nor said why returns slowed. Who organises the caravans, and whether anyone profits from them, also remains unproven.
What Comes Next
The INM releases running totals every few weeks, and the next one will show whether the October slowdown holds. The embassy has posted similar warnings with each new group since September, so more are likely if groups keep gathering in San Pedro Sula.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many Hondurans have been deported in 2026?
Honduras received 37,968 deported citizens between 1 January and 15 October 2026, about 132 a day. Of these, 29,568 arrived by air and 8,400 by land.
What did the US Embassy in Honduras say about caravans?
On 18 October 2026 it told Hondurans not to fall for false promises, warning that crossing the US border illegally leads only to detention and immediate deportation. It posted the message with the hashtag #NiLoIntentes, roughly “don’t even try it”.
Which country deports the most Hondurans?
The United States, by far: it sent back 32,851 of the 36,658 Hondurans returned between January and September 2026. Mexico sent back 3,716 and Guatemala 91.
Are migrant caravans still leaving Honduras?
Yes, several groups have left San Pedro Sula since 20 September 2026, some with more than 1,500 people. The first group broke up in Guatemala within days, and none is known to have reached the US border.
Sources: US Embassy Tegucigalpa, post on X, 18 October 2026, La Prensa, INM migration figures to 15 October, 17 October 2026, Proceso Digital, INM deportation figures, 17 October 2026, Proceso Digital, embassy warning, 18 October 2026, El Mundo, embassy warning and deportees, 18 October 2026, Hondudiario, embassy video, 18 October 2026, ICN Digital, new caravans from San Pedro Sula, 17 October 2026, El Heraldo, INM returns to 30 September, 4 October 2026, El Heraldo, police chief on caravans, 3 October 2026, El Heraldo, Banco Central de Honduras remittance data, 19 October 2026, La Prensa, caravan disperses in Guatemala, 23 September 2026, Tu Nota, caravans return, 22 September 2026. All retrieved 19 October 2026. The October return pace and the 2025 comparison are calculated from the INM figures.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error