Gold Fund Falls 2.63% as Silver Fund Drops 5.59% | Gold & Silver, Oct 22
Key Facts
- Gold and silver funds fell sharply on Thursday: the GLD gold fund lost 2.63% to US$369.00 and the SLV silver fund dropped 5.59% to US$49.34.
- Spot gold hit its lowest since 4 August, trading near US$4,060 an ounce in morning deals, as an oil rally stoked inflation worries.
- US data kept rate bets high: initial jobless claims fell to 194,000 against a forecast of 200,000, according to the RT economic calendar.
- The Federal Reserve meets on 27 and 28 October, with the decision due on Wednesday 28 October.
- Mexico and Peru lead world silver output: Mexico produced 172.9 million ounces in 2025, down 5%, and Peru 130.6 million, up 7%.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket gives 74.5% to another Fed rate hike in 2026 (US$991,407 traded, read 8:30 pm ET, 22 October). Bets, not polls.
Today’s Focus
Gold and silver fell on Thursday, 22 October 2026, as a rally in oil prices raised inflation worries. Investors now expect the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high for longer.
The GLD gold fund closed at US$369.00, down 2.63%. The SLV silver fund closed at US$49.34, down 5.59%, a bigger fall because silver also depends on industrial demand.
Higher interest rates make gold and silver less attractive, because they pay no interest. A firm US dollar also makes them more expensive for buyers abroad.
What matters today. Oil-driven inflation worries outweighed safe-haven demand, so gold and silver fell even as bond yields eased.
01 The session in one read
Gold and silver lost ground on Thursday, 22 October 2026, as a rally in oil prices intensified inflation concerns. Spot gold hit its lowest level since 4 August, trading near US$4,060 an ounce, down 1.9%, at 11:34 GMT, according to Kitco. Spot silver traded near US$55.7, down 3.9%, at that time.
The funds that track the metals closed lower for the full session. GLD fell 2.63% and SLV fell 5.59%, so the sell-off deepened after the morning quotes.
Higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding gold and silver, which pay neither interest nor dividends. Treasury yields fell on Thursday, with the 10-year near 4.96%, but that did not stop the metals from falling.
The market is trading inflation and interest-rate expectations more than geopolitical risk. The variable to watch is whether oil keeps rising into the Federal Reserve meeting on 27 and 28 October, because another jump would strengthen the case for higher rates and weigh on both metals.
02 The board
The GLD gold fund closed at US$369.00 on Thursday, down 2.63% from US$378.95. The SLV silver fund closed at US$49.34, down 5.59% from US$52.26.
Funds are not the spot price, but they show where investors moved by the close. The morning spot quotes of about US$4,060 for gold and US$55.7 for silver were intraday levels, not settlements.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Gold (GLD fund) | US$369.00 | −2.63% |
| Silver (SLV fund) | US$49.34 | −5.59% |
Source: RT close, 2026-10-22. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
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Latin America — Cross-Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 204,120.12 | -1.15% | +21.85% | 206,495.23 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| IPSA | 10,780.31 | -1.88% | — | 10,987.14 | 11,210 | 10,984 | 1,513,213,483 |
| IPC MEX | 69,370.40 | -1.25% | +12.17% | 70,249.54 | 66,121 | 65,405 | 108,886,187 |
| MERVAL | 3,017,221 | — | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| COLCAP | 2,528.42 | -1.25% | — | 9.04 | 9.05 | 9.02 | 4,133 |
| BVL PERÚ | 59,561.23 | -4.26% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| USD/MXN | 17.06 | -0.24% | -8.58% | 17.10 | 17.08 | 17.01 | — |
| USD/CLP | 913.98 | +0.04% | -5.67% | 913.65 | 915.11 | 906.68 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,140 | +0.03% | -22.04% | 3,139 | 3,141 | 3,105 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.36 | -0.66% | -4.82% | 3.38 | 3.38 | 3.35 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.27 | +1.24% | +1.80% | 39.77 | 40.27 | 40.23 | — |
| USD/PYG | 5,939 | +1.68% | -19.54% | 5,841 | 5,939 | 5,925 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.64 | -0.76% | +72.04% | 11.73 | 11.72 | 11.64 | — |
| USD/DOP | 58.34 | +1.25% | -3.44% | 57.62 | 58.34 | 58.04 | — |
| USD/CRC | 445.92 | +0.89% | -9.71% | 441.97 | 448.50 | 445.92 | — |
03 What moved it
Oil prices surged, and the market read that as a sign of lasting inflation. If energy costs keep rising, the Federal Reserve has less room to cut rates, and higher rates punish assets that offer no yield. Brent crude traded above US$112 a barrel.
US data pointed the same way. Initial jobless claims fell to 194,000 against a forecast of 200,000, continuing claims rose to 1,728,000 against 1,720,000 expected, and the four-week average fell to 197.75 thousand (RT economic calendar). A firm job market keeps rate-cut hopes low.
Prediction markets agree with that mood: traders gave 74.5% to another Fed rate hike in 2026.
04 The Latin American read
A firm dollar affects the local-currency value of Mexican and Peruvian silver exports. It lifts the peso and sol value of dollar sales, but also raises the cost of imported mining equipment.
Mexico stayed the world’s largest silver producer in 2025 with 172.9 million ounces, even after a 5% fall in output. Peru ranked second with 130.6 million ounces, up 7%.
05 The names to watch
Fresnillo and Industrias Peñoles are the main listed bellwethers for Mexican silver. In Peru, Hochschild and Buenaventura give investors exposure to gold and silver output.
Any lasting fall in silver would squeeze the margins of smaller miners first, because their costs are less flexible.
06 The outlook
The next catalyst is the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday 28 October. If oil keeps rising into that meeting, gold and silver could struggle further as expectations of higher rates settle in.
A signal that the Fed is less worried about inflation, or an easing in Middle East tensions, could bring safe-haven buying back. For now the short-term path points lower.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a prediction market, priced at 74.5% the chance of another Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, with US$991,407 traded on that market (read at 8:30 pm ET on 22 October). Traders gave 68.5% to two hikes in 2026 and 25.0% to one.
These prices are bets, not polls. They can move quickly with each new data release.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
07 What to watch
- Oil prices: A continued rally would reinforce inflation fears and pressure gold and silver further.
- Federal Reserve decision (Wednesday 28 October): Any change in language on inflation or rates will move real yields and metal prices.
- US jobless data: Another low reading would keep rate-cut hopes low.
- Mexican and Peruvian output: Silver production trends shape supply sentiment.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did gold fall despite falling bond yields?
The oil-driven inflation scare strengthened expectations of higher US interest rates for longer, which outweighed the support from lower Treasury yields.
Why did silver fall more than gold?
Silver also depends on industrial demand, so it is more exposed to worries about slower growth and higher borrowing costs. The SLV fund fell 5.59% against 2.63% for GLD.
How does this affect Mexico and Peru?
They are the world’s two largest silver producers. A firm dollar raises the local-currency value of their exports but also raises import costs for miners.
What is the key risk to watch next?
The Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday 28 October, especially any signal on how oil-driven inflation might delay rate cuts.
Market data: RT
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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