Gold Holds Steady Above $3,000: March 24 Market Briefing

Gold is trading at $3025.30 per ounce as of Monday morning, maintaining relative stability after last week’s historic breach of the $3,000 threshold.

The precious metal continues to consolidate near these levels amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns over new U.S. tariff policies. Gold experienced modest fluctuations overnight.

It opened at $3,021.20 in early Asian trading before climbing to $3,027.40 during the early European session. The metal dipped slightly from Sunday’s closing price of $3025.53, reflecting cautious market sentiment as traders assess potential impacts from impending U.S. tariffs.

The dollar index hovered near a three-week high, putting pressure on gold prices and making the yellow metal more expensive for overseas buyers. Despite this, gold has demonstrated remarkable resilience, remaining above the psychologically important $3,000 mark.

Global Market Overview

Asian Markets:

Gold trading in Hong Kong and Tokyo saw limited activity overnight, with prices generally tracking U.S. futures. The strategic positioning of the Hong Kong market continues to fill the time gap between New York’s close and London’s opening. Japanese investors remain interested in gold as a wealth preservation tool amid economic fluctuations.

European Markets:

London’s gold market, the world’s largest, opened with modest gains as European investors continued to show strong interest in the precious metal. European gold ETFs have dominated inflows since January 2025, marking the strongest period since March 2022.

North American Markets:

COMEX gold futures are holding steady around $3,020.80 in pre-market trading, with traders awaiting fresh catalysts after last week’s volatile price action.

Market Drivers

Gold’s current trading pattern reflects several competing forces in the market:

1. Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine continue to support gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. An Israeli airstrike at a hospital in Gaza on Sunday killed five people, including a Hamas political leader, while a U.S. delegation is pursuing a Black Sea ceasefire in talks with Russia today.

2. Tariff Concerns: U.S. President Donald Trump’s wave of reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2 has stoked inflation fears and economic growth concerns. However, Trump hinted on Friday there would be some flexibility regarding tariffs, slightly easing market anxiety.

3. Technical Positioning: Gold appears overbought in the short term after reaching record highs last week. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 70.50, indicating potential for a technical correction.

4. Physical Demand: Physical gold demand in major consumer markets like India has weakened as high prices prompt selling rather than buying. In India’s Zaveri Bazaar, customers are rushing to sell old jewelry and coins, potentially moderating gold’s upward trend if it leads to decreasing imports.

Market Commentary

“Gold is still well positioned for further upside if markets remain edgy about the possible negative growth effects of tariffs, but this could be partially offset if a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire deal comes closer to fruition,” noted Tim Waterer, KCM Trade chief market analyst.

Peter Grant, Zaner Metals Vice President, observed: “Investors are booking some profits ahead of the weekend. Nevertheless, gold‘s safe-haven demand continues to be firm on account of ongoing trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions”.

Price Action in Key Markets

India: Gold prices declined on Monday, with 24-carat gold falling by Rs. 160 per 10 grams to Rs. 89,620, while 22-carat gold dropped by Rs. 150 to Rs. 82,150. Spot gold prices declined across major Indian cities, reflecting profit-taking after recent all-time highs.

MCX India: Gold futures showed mixed performance, with the April contract trading at Rs. 87,899, up by Rs. 121 or 0.14%, after touching a high of Rs. 87,899 and a low of Rs. 87,681.

Technical Analysis

The technical outlook for gold suggests possible consolidation after its recent surge:

Short-term outlook: Gold is currently trading below the bearish threshold of 3031.2, indicating a bearish bias for intraday trading. Key support levels to watch include 3023.9 (1st Lower VWAP Deviation), 3018.8, and psychological support at 3000.

Weekly outlook: Despite short-term pressure, gold remains within a broader bullish channel. A test of support near 2935 could occur before a potential continuation of the uptrend toward 3145. A rebound from the trend line on the RSI would provide an additional signal in favor of gold’s growth.

ETF Flows and Institutional Position

Gold ETFs have maintained strong momentum through early 2025, with significant inflows particularly from European investors. Total assets under management reached a record US$294 billion, reflecting growing institutional confidence in gold’s long-term prospects.

This institutional buying provides underlying support for gold prices, even as physical demand shows signs of weakening in traditional consumer markets like India and China.

Outlook

While gold may experience short-term consolidation due to profit-taking and dollar strength, the fundamental factors supporting its rise remain intact. Market analysts project prices in the $3,100-$3,200 range by year-end, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Investors will be closely monitoring this week’s U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for clues about inflation and potential Fed policy adjustments. Additionally, developments in Trump’s tariff policies and Middle East tensions will likely influence gold’s price direction in the near term.

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