BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Key Facts
- The event Globo’s presidential debate between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro is set for Friday 23 October, two days before Brazil’s runoff.
- US times The scheduled start is 9:20 p.m. in Brasília, which is 8:20 p.m. US Eastern and 5:20 p.m. US Pacific, straight after the evening news.
- The host César Tralli, co-anchor of Globo’s evening news Jornal Nacional, moderates from the Estúdios Globo complex in Rio de Janeiro.
- Where to watch TV Globo carries it live, with simultaneous streams on GloboNews and on the g1 news site.
- Still open Whether Flávio’s campaign has formally accepted Globo’s rules is not public, and the network’s deadline for that answer is Monday 19 October.
- Why it matters It is the last scheduled televised face-off before the runoff on Sunday 25 October, after a first round that left the two men 1.87 points apart.
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 75.9% chance of winning the runoff and Lula 23.5% (19 October, 7:55 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 76% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 24% and 21%), as of 19 October, 8:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
Date, polls, debates, odds and how the runoff works, updated every day.
Brazil runoff polls · Polymarket and Kalshi odds · When results come
TV Globo, a Brazilian television network based in Rio de Janeiro, will hold the last debate between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro on Friday 23 October, two days before the runoff. Globo’s news site g1 gives a scheduled start of 9:20 p.m. in Brasília, which is 8:20 p.m. US Eastern, with anchor César Tralli as moderator.
Brazil votes on Sunday 25 October to choose its next president, in a race that g1 describes as a technical tie in the polls. For US investors, travellers and policy watchers, Friday’s debate is the last live test of both candidates before voters decide.
What Is Set for Friday
The g1 announcement was published on Monday 19 October and lists the debate after Jornal Nacional, Globo’s evening news programme, while our 14 October guide to the runoff debates had the date but no clock time. Brasília is one hour ahead of US Eastern time, so 9:20 p.m. there is 8:20 p.m. in New York and Washington and 5:20 p.m. on the US West Coast.
The debate comes live from Estúdios Globo, the network’s production complex in Rio de Janeiro, on TV Globo, with simultaneous streams on GloboNews and g1. The g1 site says the full programme will be on its pages afterwards, while Terra reported on Monday that Globo gave no exact start because it depends on how long the news programme runs.
Globo invited the two runoff candidates: President Lula, who seeks re-election for the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT), and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of Rio de Janeiro, the candidate of the conservative Liberal Party (PL). Flávio is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, and the PL made his candidacy official at its national convention on 25 July.
Edinho Silva chairs the PT and also works on Lula’s campaign, g1 says. Valdemar Costa Neto is the national president of the PL, CNN Brasil reported at the convention.
Who Moderates the Debate
César Tralli moderates the debate, and g1 names him as host from Estúdios Globo. He has anchored Jornal Nacional with Renata Vasconcellos since early November 2025, when he succeeded William Bonner, CNN Brasil reported.
Globo’s separate one-on-one interviews were led by another journalist, Renata Lo Prete, who questioned Lula on Thursday 15 October and Flávio on Friday 16 October. The g1 site says both interviews are available in full on its pages.
Where Flávio’s Campaign Stands
Flávio’s campaign had not signed Globo’s rules for the debate after a meeting with network representatives on Tuesday 13 October, according to the Painel column of the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo, as relayed by Brasil 247. Lula’s campaign said it had signed, and Globo set Monday 19 October as the deadline for Flávio’s team to formalise its attendance.
At that meeting Globo explained how the debate would run, including the blocks, the themes, the time for each candidate and a draw for the order, Brasil 247 reported. Globo has not published those rules, and NC News and Melhor Investimento both wrote on Monday that the format and the question order were still not public.
An unsigned document is not a withdrawal, the blog Nill Júnior wrote, citing Folha, and Flávio’s camp has changed course before. On 13 October Flávio said he would skip Band’s debate, yet on Sunday 18 October he took part in it, g1 reported.
On Monday 19 October Gazeta do Povo wrote that Friday is expected to be given over to final preparations for the Globo debate, with allies such as congressman Nikolas Ferreira expected to accompany Flávio. That report does not say whether the rules have been signed, and The Rio Times found no published confirmation of a signature.
What Happened at the Band Debate
The two men met face to face for the first time in this campaign on Sunday 18 October, at a debate hosted by the broadcaster Band, g1 reported. Over three blocks they argued about security, the economy, health and relations with the United States, and they traded accusations about criminal investigations of allies and relatives.
Lula proposed that both candidates open their bank and phone records, g1 reported, and the two disagreed on lowering the age of criminal responsibility and on ties with Washington. Both had skipped Band’s first-round debate on 23 August, g1 notes, and Terra reported that Globo called off its own first-round debate planned for 1 October at the last minute.
Why This Debate Carries Weight
The runoff is on Sunday 25 October, with polls open from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Brasília time, the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) says. In the first round on 4 October Flávio won 47.03% of valid votes and Lula 45.16%, a gap of 1.87 points, according to the court’s count.
The g1 site called the race a technical tie, citing a Datafolha poll fielded on 13 and 14 October that put Flávio at 47% and Lula at 45%. Terra calls Friday’s programme the last presidential debate before the runoff, and g1 calls it the last one Globo will hold between the two men.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors gave Flávio Bolsonaro a 75.9% chance of winning the runoff and Lula 23.5% (19 October, 7:55 p.m. ET). About US$23.2 million has been traded on the Flávio contract and about US$26.7 million on the Lula contract.
Flávio’s price was about 86% on the evening of Tuesday 13 October and about 79% by the evening of Sunday 18 October, the night of the Band debate. A separate Polymarket contract, with about US$70,000 traded, asked whether Lula and Flávio would join the same televised debate by 24 October, and it has resolved Yes after the Band debate.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.3% · Lula 23.5% (US$188 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 21%
As of 19 October, 8:20 pm ET (01:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
From the United States the debate starts at 8:20 p.m. Eastern on a Friday evening, long after the regular session of the New York Stock Exchange ends at 4:00 p.m. Eastern. Investors in US-listed Brazilian shares and funds therefore have no regular New York session between the debate and Sunday’s vote.
Terra, in an item licensed from RD1, said g1 will make the programme available to the whole world, but the g1 announcement itself does not say so and mentions no English or subtitled stream. At the Band debate the two men disagreed on relations with the United States, g1 reported, a topic that Globo’s debate may revisit although Globo has not published its themes.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether Flávio’s campaign has signed Globo’s rules, because the reports found date from 13 October and Globo’s deadline falls on Monday 19 October. The Rio Times found no statement from Globo or from the campaign that settles it.
The format, the themes, the speaking time and the question order have not been made public, and Brasil 247 reported only that Globo explained them to the campaigns on 13 October. It is also not known whether the 9:20 p.m. start will hold, or whether court rulings will again change the format, as two did before Globo’s cancelled first-round debate.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the Globo debate between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro?
The debate is set for Friday 23 October, after Jornal Nacional, with a scheduled start of 9:20 p.m. in Brasília. That is 8:20 p.m. US Eastern and 5:20 p.m. US Pacific.
Who moderates the Globo debate?
César Tralli, who anchors Jornal Nacional with Renata Vasconcellos, moderates from Estúdios Globo in Rio de Janeiro. Renata Lo Prete led Globo’s separate one-on-one interviews with Lula and Flávio on 15 and 16 October.
Will Flávio Bolsonaro attend the Globo debate?
He is invited, but whether his campaign has formally accepted Globo’s rules is not public. Folha de S.Paulo’s Painel column reported on 13 October that his team had not signed, while Lula’s team said it had.
Where can US viewers watch the Globo debate?
Globo will show it on TV Globo, with simultaneous streams on GloboNews and the g1 news site. The g1 announcement does not say whether the stream works outside Brazil.
When is Brazil’s runoff election?
Brazil votes on Sunday 25 October, from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Brasília time, the Superior Electoral Court says. Flávio led the first round with 47.03% of valid votes to Lula’s 45.16%.
Sources: g1 (Globo), when is the Globo presidential debate, 19 October 2026, g1, first runoff debate on Band, 18 October 2026, g1, GloboNews Debate with the campaign coordinators, 19 October 2026, Superior Electoral Court (TSE), election calendar, TSE, runoff voting hours, 16 October 2026, Terra, when is the Globo debate, 19 October 2026, Terra (RD1), Globo confirms debate details, 11 October 2026, Brasil 247, citing Folha de S.Paulo, 13 October 2026, Nill Júnior blog, citing Folha de S.Paulo, 13 October 2026, Gazeta do Povo, Flávio’s final campaign agenda, 19 October 2026, NC News, 19 October 2026, Melhor Investimento, 19 October 2026, Jamildo, Globo interviews and debate, 14 October 2026, O Liberal (Estadão Conteúdo), 19 October 2026, TSE, Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula go to the runoff, October 2026, Carta Capital, first-round final count, 5 October 2026, Datafolha, runoff poll BR-00466/2026, 16 October 2026, CNN Brasil, PL convention, 25 July 2026, CNN Brasil, Tralli at Jornal Nacional, New York Stock Exchange, trading hours, Polymarket, Brazil presidential election market (prices from its public data feed). All retrieved 19 October 2026. Prices are bets, not polls.
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