Global Economy Briefing: October 15, 2025

Investors digested softer activity in Japan, a mixed European inflation and production picture, and renewed signs of cooling U.S. housing demand.

China’s credit pulse improved on aggregate financing but bank lending slowed, while India’s trade gap widened. Funding conditions in Europe eased at core auctions as IMF meetings shaped the policy backdrop.

United States

Mortgage demand slipped again: applications fell 1.8% week on week as the 30-year rate edged to 6.42%.

The Empire State manufacturing index jumped to 10.7, hinting at a firmer October start after recent softness. The Beige Book and Fed speakers (Bostic, Waller) were in focus for color on labor tightness and pricing power.

Europe & UK

France’s CPI held at 1.2% year on year in September (-1.0% m/m), with HICP at 1.1%. Spain’s inflation was stickier at 3.0% y/y (HICP 3.0%), though m/m CPI fell 0.3%. Euro area industrial production declined 1.2% m/m (+1.1% y/y), underscoring weak goods momentum.

Funding costs eased: Germany’s 30-year Bund auction cleared at 3.170% (prior 3.250%) and the 2-year Schatz at 1.910%. ECB officials (De Guindos) remained cautious.

Asia

Japan’s real-side momentum softened: industrial production −1.5% m/m, capacity utilization −2.3%; later in the day, core machinery orders fell 0.9% m/m (+1.6% y/y).

China’s credit mix was uneven—total social financing rose to ¥3.53T, but new bank loans slowed to ¥1.29T; M2 growth eased to 8.4% y/y and outstanding loan growth to 6.6% y/y. Australia’s labor market added 14.9k jobs, but unemployment rose to 4.5% as participation climbed to 67.0%.

Major Emerging Markets

India’s exports reached $36.38B while imports jumped to $68.53B, widening the trade deficit to $32.15B. South Africa’s retail sales growth eased to 2.3% y/y.

Brazil’s retail sales ticked up 0.2% m/m (0.4% y/y), with weekly FX flows showing a $0.738B net inflow. Canada’s August manufacturing (−1.0% m/m) and wholesale sales (−1.2% m/m) softened after strong July prints.

Commodities & Flows

Easier euro funding at long and short tenors and a steadier U.S. mortgage rate tempered broad tightening. Norway’s trade surplus narrowed to NOK 36.9B, signaling softer energy tailwinds.

Risks and Framing

Europe’s disinflation contrasts with persistent Spanish price pressure; Japan’s output slump and China’s slower bank lending flag fragile Asia momentum.

The next catalysts are U.S. demand and price anecdotes in the Beige Book, euro-area hard prints, and China’s October credit follow-through.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error

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