Global Economy Briefing: December 12, 2025
Read about Global Economy Briefing: December 12, 2025 on The Rio Times.
Key Points
• Europe’s inflation stayed low while UK growth faltered and the trade gap widened.
• China’s credit pulse revived; India’s inflation stayed very low with strong loan growth.
• Oil supply capacity looks steady; commodity positioning swung toward grains and gold.
United States
The newest headline was the President’s remarks; markets stayed focused on data. Oil rigs rose to 414; total rigs were 548. Wholesale inventories rose 0.5% in September as sales fell 0.2%.
Natural-gas storage drew 177 bcf. Funding stayed orderly: 4- and 8-week bills at 3.61%; the 30-year auction at 4.773%.
Net: demand cools at the edges, but liquidity and energy look balanced.
Europe and UK
Germany’s CPI was 2.3% y/y and −0.2% m/m; HICP printed 2.6% y/y and −0.5% m/m. France ran 0.9% y/y (HICP 0.8%); Spain was 3.0% y/y (HICP 3.2%).
Euro core CPI held 2.6% y/y. The UK stumbled: GDP −0.1% m/m; services flat; construction −0.6% m/m; industry +1.1% m/m but still −0.8% y/y. The trade deficit widened to £22.54B.
Message: disinflation persists; Britain’s demand is fragile.
Asia-Pacific
Japan’s plants were busy: industrial production +1.5% m/m; capacity use +3.3% m/m. Sentiment softened (PCSI 40.96).
China’s credit impulse improved: new loans ¥390B; total social financing ¥2.49T; M2 8.0% y/y; loan growth 6.4% y/y.
India’s CPI was 0.71% y/y, with bank loans up 11.5% and deposits up 10.2%; FX reserves rose to $687.26B. Regional consumer gauges eased (Korea, Australia, Japan, China), but the buffers are thick.
Latin America and Africa
Mexico’s industry was mixed: +0.7% m/m, −0.4% y/y, on a bank holiday. Brazil’s services grew 0.3% m/m and 2.2% y/y, slower than September.
South Africa’s retail rose 2.9% y/y; mining output jumped 5.8% y/y; business confidence climbed to 132.3. Net: EM demand is holding, with better volumes in Africa.
Canada
Building permits surged 14.9% m/m. Capacity use reached 78.5%. Wholesale sales rose 0.1% m/m, while new vehicle sales were 163.5k. The mix argues for patience at the BoC.
Positioning and energy
CFTC showed heavier longs in soybeans (254.1k) and gold (210.3k), lighter crude length (69.2k). Corn flipped to a large long (120.9k).
GBP shorts deepened (−79.3k). Oil supply capacity looks steady with rigs inching up and inventories manageable.
What it means
Europe’s low inflation and China’s revived credit reduce global price risk. The UK is the regional weak link. Asia’s buffers anchor FX; India’s ultra-low inflation widens policy space.
EM volumes improve where energy and mining support incomes. Portfolio tilt: keep quality duration, favor service-heavy U.S. and Asia, add selectively to European exporters benefiting from cheaper inputs, and hedge food prices given the grain positioning surge.
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