Global Economy Briefing: December 11, 2025
Read about Global Economy Briefing: December 11, 2025 on The Rio Times.
Key Points
• U.S. jobless claims rose, but the trade gap narrowed and funding stayed orderly.
• Switzerland held rates at 0.00%, while Italy’s jobless rate fell and demand gauges steadied.
• Brazil’s retail improved; South Africa’s mining accelerated; Australia’s jobs slipped.
United States
Latest first. Initial claims rose to 236k; the four-week average ticked up to 216.75k. Continuing claims fell to 1.838 million.
The trade deficit narrowed to $52.8B, with exports at $289.3B and imports at $342.1B. Wholesale inventories rose 0.5% as sales dipped 0.2%.
Natural-gas stocks drew a sharp 177 bcf. Bills eased to 3.610% at both 4- and 8-week auctions; the 30-year reopened at 4.773%.
The Fed’s balance sheet edged to $6.539T and reserve balances to $2.974T.
Translation: hiring cools at the margin, but separation rates stay contained and dollar funding is calm.
Europe and UK
The SNB left policy at 0.00% and stressed stability. Italy’s quarterly jobless rate fell to 6.1%. Rome sold 3-year BTPs at 2.58%.
Eurogroup meetings brought no surprises. Confidence was mixed: UK PCSI rose to 47.3; France improved to 40.46; Germany was steady at 46.44; Italy inched up to 45.86; the euro-area composite slipped to 49.54.
Read-through: services and employment still carry growth while industry mends slowly.
Asia-Pacific
Australia disappointed. Employment fell 21.3k, full-time dropped 56.5k, participation slid to 66.7%, and unemployment held at 4.3%.
Singapore’s jobless rate was 2.0%, showing resilient services. Korea’s export prices rose 7.0% y/y with import prices up 2.2%.
New Zealand’s PMI printed 51.4 and card spending rose 1.2% m/m (1.6% y/y).
Implication: Asia remains the global buffer, but Australia’s labor wobble argues for caution on construction and credit.
Latin America and Africa
Brazil’s retail beat expectations: +0.5% m/m and 1.1% y/y. That supports revenues without rekindling inflation.
South Africa’s mining output jumped 5.8% y/y; manufacturing rose 1.0% m/m (0.2% y/y). Business confidence climbed to 132.3, while gold output dipped 1.2% y/y.
Net: better volume, still-fragile pricing.
Canada
A clean external win. Exports reached C$64.23B; imports C$64.08B. The trade balance swung to a C$0.15B surplus. That supports the currency and gives the BoC time.
What it means
A smaller U.S. gap, a steady SNB, and Canada’s surplus reduce FX stress. South Africa’s volumes and Brazil’s retail add EM momentum. The main risk sits in Australia’s jobs and Europe’s still-soft industry.
Positioning: keep quality duration; favor U.S. and Asia services; add selectively to EMs with improving external balances; stay wary of deep European cyclicals until orders and credit turn.
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