Exame/IDEIA Poll: Bolsonaro Wins Reelection in Hypothetical Electoral Scenarios

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – If the presidential elections were held today, President Jair Bolsonaro would be reelected. In a first-round dispute scenario between Bolsonaro, ex-president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, ex-Minister of Justice Sérgio Moro and other candidates, the president would take the majority of the votes (31 percent), followed by ex-president Lula (17 percent).

In a second round, Bolsonaro would beat Lula, with 42 percent of the votes, compared to 31 percent for the leftist opponent. This is shown by an Exame/IDEIA survey.

In this first round scenario, Moro comes third with 13 percent of voting intentions, followed by ex-Minister Ciro Gomes (six percent) and TV host Luciano Huck (five percent). São Paulo governor João Doria and politician João Amoedo are tied with three percent of intentions.

Ex-Minister Marina Silva got two percent of votes, followed by the governor of Maranhão, Flávio Dino, with one percent. The number of voters who would vote blank or void totals 14 percent of intentions.

The survey was conducted by telephone with 1,235 people in all regions of the country between August 24th and 31st. The error margin is three percentage points, plus or minus.

Families with a monthly income above five minimum salaries (roughly US$1,000) are the most inclined to vote for Bolsonaro (35 percent of voting intentions), as well as the South and Midwest inhabitants (35 percent) and Brazilians who have completed only elementary school (41 percent, compared to 29 percent of those who attended elementary and high school).

Lula’s voters are concentrated in the Northeast (24 percent, compared to 12 percent in the South and 16 percent in the Southeast) and earn up to one minimum salary (20 percent). Around 15 percent of families with an income of three to five minimum salaries would vote for the ex-president. “Lula had his image attached to the Bolsa Família (Family Grant), which had a repercussion mainly in the Northeast region,” says Mauricio Moura, IDEIA founder.

In a potential second round, Bolsonaro would beat Lula with 42 percent of the votes, against 31 percent for his rival. With Moro in the scenario, the vote would be tighter, but Bolsonaro would still win the election. The ex-Minister of Justice would have 31 percent of the votes and Bolsonaro would get 38 percent. If the President’s opponent were Doria, Bolsonaro would win with 41 percent of the vote compared to 17 percent for the São Paulo governor.

Approval of President Bolsonaro’s government has increased since the start of the pandemic. In January, it was stable at 30 percent. Its popularity began to grow in April, when the monthly R$ 600 emergency aid was established.

Another Exame/IDEIA survey, released on Wednesday, September 2nd, shows that 65 percent of Brazilians believe that Bolsonaro is mainly responsible for the emergency aid, which will be extended until December in the amount of R$300 per month.

However, the Brazilian population is still politically polarized. While the government has the approval of 38 percent of Brazilians, who consider it great or good, another 26 percent say its management is terrible. Added to the voters who classify the President’s work as bad, the discontented reach the same 38 percent as those who say they approve the government.

“Despite the high approval of the President, the indexes still reflect the deep feeling of polarization of Brazilian public opinion,” says Moura. “The bad and poor numbers of the presidential assessment are milder, but still corroborate a high contingent of dissatisfaction, even more so when compared to other world leaders in the post-Pandemic.”

Source: Exame