Copper Prices Rise on Tight Supply, China Demand
Key Facts
- Copper prices rise again three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange gained 0.7% to US$14,766 a tonne on Tuesday.
- New York settled higher COMEX December copper closed at US$6.8348 a pound, up 1.07%, a sixth straight advance.
- Mine supply tightened world mine production fell 1.1% in the first half of 2026, the International Copper Study Group says.
- China paid up for imports the Yangshan premium ended last week at US$124 a tonne, then eased to US$119 on Monday.
- Chile dominates output it produced 5.3 million metric tons in 2025, about 23% of world supply, US Geological Survey data show.
- Producers outran the metal Southern Copper closed at US$206.14, up 4.08%, and Freeport-McMoRan at US$74.35, up 3.03%.
Today’s Focus
Copper prices rose for a sixth straight session on Tuesday 22 September 2026, as tight mine supply met firm Chinese buying. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange gained 0.7% to US$14,766 a tonne in London trading.
In New York, COMEX December copper settled at US$6.8348 a pound, up 1.07%. That is the most active contract and the one American industrial buyers price from.
Producer shares moved harder. Southern Copper closed at US$206.14, up 4.08%, while Freeport-McMoRan added 3.03% to US$74.35.
The Yangshan premium, the gauge of Chinese appetite for imported metal, ended last week at US$124 a tonne. That was its highest in nearly four years, and it eased to US$119 on Monday 21 September 2026.
Chile remains the world’s largest supplier, at 5.3 million metric tons in 2025. Peru ranks third at 2.7 million, behind the Democratic Republic of Congo.
What matters today. Thin Chinese stockpiles and a shrinking pool of freely available London metal are keeping the squeeze on.
01 The session in one read
Copper prices rose for a sixth session on Tuesday 22 September 2026, driven by shrinking mine output and Chinese buying. London’s three-month contract added 0.7% to US$14,766 a tonne, within 1% of its 10 September 2026 peak.
The move reflected structural tightness rather than speculative froth. World copper-mine production fell 1.1% year on year in the first half of 2026, the International Copper Study Group reported.
A 2.6% drop in concentrate output drove that decline. It outweighed a 4.3% rise in cathode made by leaching, the same figures show.
Tuesday’s gain rests on visible physical tightness, not on positioning alone: Shanghai warehouse stocks are down about 70% since early June 2026. Watch whether the Yangshan premium climbs back towards US$124 a tonne.
02 The board
The two futures benchmarks moved together. COMEX December copper settled at US$6.8348 a pound, up 1.07%, while London’s three-month contract gained 0.7%.
Producers outran the metal itself. Southern Copper closed at US$206.14, a 4.08% jump, while Freeport-McMoRan rose 3.03% to US$74.35.
That gap points to investors rewarding miners with operating leverage to the price. The CPER tracking fund, which holds copper futures rather than spot metal, settled at US$41.43, up 1.87%.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Copper, LME three-month | US$14,766 a tonne | +0.7% |
| Copper, COMEX December | US$6.8348 a pound | +1.07% |
| Copper (CPER tracker) | US$41.43 | +1.87% |
| Southern Copper | US$206.14 | +4.08% |
| Freeport-McMoRan | US$74.35 | +3.03% |
Trade date: Tuesday 22 September 2026. Sources: London Metal Exchange three-month copper as reported by MINING.COM; COMEX December settlement via Investing.com; New York closes via RT. The CPER fund is shown as a labelled proxy, not a spot price.
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03 What moved it
China’s pre-holiday restocking was the clearest demand signal. Inventories across China’s main regions fell to 74,800 tonnes on 21 September 2026, Shanghai Metals Market said.
That was a draw of 14,500 tonnes on the week. Chinese holidays begin on 25 September 2026 and run through the National Day break in early October.
The Yangshan import premium tracks what buyers pay for metal delivered into China. It finished last week at US$124 a tonne, its highest in nearly four years, and slipped to US$119 on Monday.
Exchange stocks tell the same story. Copper held in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses has fallen about 70% since early June 2026.
In London, only 133,725 tonnes were freely available to the market on Tuesday. Cancelled warrants, metal already booked for withdrawal, made up 48% of the total on warrant.
Supply constraints reinforced the bid. Freeport-McMoRan is still rebuilding output at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia after a fatal accident in September 2025.
04 The Latin American read
Chile, the world’s largest copper producer at 5.3 million metric tons in 2025, sits at the centre of this story. US Geological Survey data put world mine output at 23 million tons.
Codelco, the Chilean state miner, is still absorbing a rockburst at its El Teniente mine in July 2025. Reuters reported the company put the annual loss at about 48,000 tonnes.
Peru ranks third globally with 2.7 million metric tons, behind the Democratic Republic of Congo at 3.2 million. For investors in the region, Southern Copper’s 4.08% jump shows how fast producer shares answer a supply scare.
05 The names to watch
Southern Copper, which mines in Peru and Mexico, remains the purest listed proxy for the metal among large producers. Freeport-McMoRan’s 3.03% gain came despite the slow restart at Grasberg.
CPER, the futures-tracking fund, offers broader access but carries a different risk profile. Because it holds copper futures contracts, its performance can diverge from spot copper due to contract timing, storage costs and roll expenses.
06 The outlook
The supply-demand arithmetic still favours firm copper prices. Chinese buyers are replenishing stocks before the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, while mine output struggles to keep pace.
Energy-transition demand adds a longer-term floor: electric vehicles, grid upgrades and renewable equipment all need copper. State Grid Corporation of China plans about US$574 billion of fixed-asset investment from 2026 to 2030.
That programme was set out by China’s state asset regulator in January 2026. It is a 40% increase on the previous five-year plan.
07 What to watch
- Yangshan import premium: a return above US$124 a tonne, last week’s close, would show renewed Chinese restocking urgency
- Chinese inventories: another weekly draw from 74,800 tonnes would confirm that buyers are restocking before the holidays
- London warrants: a further rise above 48% cancelled would shrink the metal freely available to the market
- Grasberg restart: the pace of Freeport-McMoRan’s recovery in Indonesia shapes concentrate supply into 2027
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did copper rise on Tuesday?
Tight mine supply and firm Chinese buying lifted both benchmarks. London three-month copper gained 0.7% and COMEX December copper settled up 1.07%.
Is CPER the same as spot copper?
No, CPER tracks copper futures contracts, so its price also reflects contract timing, storage costs and roll expenses.
Which country produces the most copper?
Chile is the world’s largest producer, with 5.3 million metric tons in 2025, about 23% of global output.
Why are Southern Copper shares moving more than the metal?
Producer shares carry operating leverage to copper prices. Southern Copper jumped 4.08% on Tuesday against a 0.7% gain in London three-month copper.
Market data: RT
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