Azali Assoumani’s CRC Sweeps 31 of 33 Seats as Comoros Economy Grows 3.8%

Economy · Comoros

Comoros enters 2026 as a politically consolidated but structurally fragile Indian Ocean micro-economy. Azali Assoumani’s ruling party now dominates the Assembly after disputed votes, while growth remains dependent on three aromatic crops, diaspora transfers and France’s shifting aid politics over Mayotte.

Assoumani’s consolidation after two disputed ballots

Azali Assoumani was declared re-elected president on 14 January 2024 in a vote that opposition groups rejected as flawed.

Reuters reported he was sworn in for a fourth term on 26 May 2024, though the World Bank describes it as a third term under the post-2018 constitutional framework.

That 2018 constitutional change ended the rotating island presidency among Grande Comore, Anjouan and Mohéli, giving Assoumani a direct five-year route to remain in office.

Parliamentary elections followed on 12 January 2025 for the 33-seat Assembly of the Union, the national legislature of the Comoros.

The ruling Convention for the Renewal of the Comoros, known locally as the CRC, initially won 28 of 33 seats according to a Reuters report on 15 January 2025.

A 2025 legislative sweep and a compliant Assembly

The Supreme Court annulled results in four constituencies on 22 January 2025, triggering reruns held on 16 February 2025.

The Inter-Parliamentary Union records that after those reruns the CRC ultimately controlled 31 of 33 seats.

The new Assembly held its first session on 4 April 2025 and re-elected Abdou Moustadroine as Speaker, cementing the executive’s hold over the legislature.

The World Bank country page confirms that the January 2025 parliamentary elections gave Assoumani’s CRC an absolute majority in the National Assembly.

With the judiciary endorsing reruns and the opposition sidelined, Assoumani now governs with minimal institutional friction heading into 2026.

A 3.8 percent growth rebound with narrow foundations

The World Bank’s June 2026 Economic Update says real GDP growth accelerated from 3.3 percent in 2024 to 3.8 percent in 2025.

That represents the strongest expansion since before the pandemic, with all three sectors growing above 3.5 percent.

Growth was driven by private consumption, services and a recovery in ylang-ylang production, the aromatic flower essence where Comoros is a world reference supplier.

The World Bank’s April 2026 Macro Poverty Outlook projects growth at 4.1 percent in 2026, with average expansion of 4.1 percent over 2026 to 2028.

Inflation is expected to run around 4.3 percent in 2026 before easing later in the forecast horizon.

Ylang-ylang, vanilla and cloves as the export backbone

Comoros’ agricultural economy revolves around three core export crops: ylang-ylang, vanilla and cloves.

The World Bank explicitly identifies ylang-ylang production recovery as a support to agricultural growth in 2025.

Secondary international sources describe Comoros as the world’s leading producer of ylang-ylang essence, used in high-end perfumery, though primary rankings were not independently confirmed in this reporting.

Vanilla and cloves provide additional export earnings but leave the economy exposed to volatile global commodity prices.

The IMF’s 2026 staff report notes continued dependence on commodity exports and remittance inflows, reinforcing the narrowness of the export base.

Remittances as the true stabiliser

The World Bank titled its June 2026 Comoros Economic Update Making Remittances Work, signalling that diaspora transfers are now the central economic narrative.

Net remittance inflows rose 5.6 percent in 2025, directly supporting private consumption and household income.

World Bank data show personal remittances received reached 20.8 percent of GDP in 2023, among the highest shares globally.

Over the past decade, remittances have averaged 11.3 percent of GDP, making them a vital source of household income.

Yet the World Bank cautions that remittances cannot offset trade imbalances or fund development on their own.

Mayotte, France and the aid conditionality fight

Mayotte is a French overseas department in the same archipelago, but Comoros disputes French sovereignty and still considers the island part of its territory.

In August 2026 French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said development aid could be conditioned on countries’ cooperation against smugglers and on their willingness to take back irregular migrants.

Reuters reported that France planned to strengthen enforcement around Mayotte, including more military and surveillance resources, as part of efforts against irregular migration.

Comorian officials have condemned the aid conditionality as condescending or akin to blackmail.

Human Rights Watch reported on 25 August 2026 that French political leaders continue to frame Mayotte’s problems through migration restrictions, including proposals to curb asylum and family reunification rights on the island.

Operation Wuambushu and the 2026 political chill

France previously carried out Operation Wuambushu in 2024, aimed at removing undocumented migrants from Mayotte, with many of those targeted being Comorian.

Africanews reported on 21 August 2026 that former French Prime Minister Édouard Philippe vowed to crack down on immigration to Mayotte if elected president in 2027.

The migration question remains a major political issue in both France and Comoros, with diaspora links to Mayotte complicating economic and diplomatic ties.

For Comoros, Mayotte is not just a sovereignty grievance but also a critical node for family remittances and informal cross-border movement.

Tighter French enforcement and aid conditionality could pressure both state finances and household incomes in 2026 and beyond.

Public debt eases but distress risk persists

The World Bank’s June 2026 update says public debt fell to 27.7 percent of GDP in 2025, down from 30.3 percent the previous year.

The World Bank country page records a slightly different figure, putting public debt at 25.2 percent of GDP in 2025.

Despite the decline, Comoros remains at high risk of debt distress under the January 2026 IMF-World Bank Debt Sustainability Analysis.

This risk marker reflects a low-capacity small island state with limited fiscal buffers and persistent import dependence.

Debt reduction has been helped by stronger growth, but the external position remains vulnerable to trade and remittance shocks.

Poverty is falling but still deep

Using the US$4.20 per day line at 2021 purchasing power parity, poverty declined from 25.9 percent of the population in 2020 to 18.0 percent in 2024.

The World Bank projects poverty at 17.1 percent in 2025, with a continued gradual decline expected.

A separate 2020 household survey found 44.8 percent of the population lived below the national poverty line.

The World Bank says poverty under the lower-middle-income poverty line measure is expected to reach 43.3 percent by 2027.

Even with recent improvements, deep poverty remains a defining feature of the Indian Ocean’s most fragile state.

Four decades of weak growth behind the 2026 moment

The World Bank’s June 2026 Economic Update states Comoros has averaged only 2.6 percent growth over four decades.

This long-run underperformance explains why the 2025 rebound to 3.8 percent is significant but still insufficient to transform the economy.

The update says household consumption, remittances and public investment matter more than broad industrial diversification in this small island economy.

Structural constraints continue to limit job creation, export capacity and resilience to external shocks.

For investors and donors, Comoros offers a narrow but politically stable entry point with high reliance on diaspora flows and aromatic commodity exports.

What to watch in 2026 and beyond

The immediate test is whether growth of around 4.1 percent in 2026 can be sustained beyond the remittance and ylang-ylang recovery cycle.

France’s August 2026 aid conditionality push over Mayotte migration could alter external financing and diplomatic room for Moroni.

The World Bank’s Making Remittances Work agenda signals potential reforms to channel diaspora money into investment rather than consumption alone.

Public debt levels are improving, but high risk of debt distress keeps Comoros dependent on concessional finance and donor goodwill.

With the CRC holding 31 of 33 Assembly seats, policy direction now hinges almost entirely on decisions from Assoumani’s presidency.

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