Colombia Stocks Rise on Argos Earnings as Dollar SPOT Hits COP 3,698

Wednesday’s session was driven by two heavyweight earnings catalysts. Grupo Cibest, which accounts for roughly 35% of the COLCAP’s market capitalization, released its Q4 2025 results after the close of trading on Wednesday. Through the first nine months of 2025, Cibest had already posted record utilidades of COP 5.7 billones, up 23% year-over-year, and J.P. Morgan projects the group will distribute US$1.4 billion in dividends in 2026 with double-digit growth in per-share payouts.

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Colombian markets and Latin American financial news.

For context on regional markets, see Brazil’s Ibovespa for the same session.

Also tracking regional peers: Chile’s IPSA closed the same session.

The session’s other major story was Cementos Argos, which reported full-year 2025 results and unveiled Sprint 4.0. Despite a 53.6% decline in net income to COP 2.58 billones — largely reflecting one-off items from the prior year — the company delivered a record 25% EBITDA margin on consolidated EBITDA of COP 1.3 billones, up 6.6% from 2024. The total proposed dividend of COP 580 per share (COP 430 ordinary plus COP 150 extraordinary) represents a 12% ordinary increase, while a new US$100 million buyback program lifts the total repurchase authorization to COP 450 billion.

Ecopetrol remains the index’s most closely watched name heading into its March 4 full-year 2025 results, with analysts projecting utilidades between COP 8.5 and 9.5 billones — a 36–43% decline from 2024’s COP 14.9 billones. The stock has faced persistent pressure from Brent weakness and peso appreciation compressing dollar-denominated earnings, though the oil price surge on Wednesday provided temporary relief.

The peso retreated sharply as the dollar SPOT jumped COP 50 to close at COP 3,698, driving the new TRM for February 20 to COP 3,695.72. The move reverses the peso’s 2.34% year-to-date appreciation and reflects the DXY’s 0.59% rally to 97.63 after hawkish FOMC minutes revealed that some Fed officials would consider further tightening if disinflation stalls.

Domestically, Banco de la República stunned markets on January 30 with a 100-basis-point hike to 10.25%, confounding the consensus expectation of a 50-basis-point move. The central bank now projects inflation at 6.4% for 2026, sharply above the prior 4.6% forecast, driven primarily by the government’s 23% minimum wage increase. January’s CPI confirmed the fears: annual inflation accelerated to 5.35% from 5.10% in December, with monthly prices rising 1.18% — the highest January reading since 2023.

The policy divergence between Colombia’s hawkish BanRep and the Fed’s wait-and-see posture creates a complex dynamic. Higher domestic rates should attract carry trade flows, but the 23% minimum wage shock and fiscal uncertainty ahead of the 2026 presidential election cycle are overwhelming that support, keeping the peso vulnerable to external dollar strength.

The daily chart shows the COLCAP bouncing from the lower Bollinger Band area near 2,363 and closing near the session high of 2,392.15, suggesting buying pressure accelerated into the close. Price remains above all major moving averages, with the 200-day SMA at 1,924.63 providing a distant but rising floor roughly 24% below current levels.

The RSI reads 54.80/54.61, sitting comfortably in neutral territory after resetting from overbought conditions in late January. The MACD histogram at −14.83 remains below zero with signal lines at 35.35 and 20.51, indicating that bearish momentum has not fully exhausted despite Wednesday’s bounce. The Ichimoku cloud provides a cluster of support between 2,267 and 2,303, while the nearest resistance sits at the descending trendline around 2,410–2,414.

Wall Street delivered a mixed session on Wednesday. The S&P 500 gained 0.56% to 6,881.31, with eight of eleven sectors closing higher, but the rally reversed sharply on Thursday as Walmart’s conservative guidance and escalating US-Iran tensions shifted markets into risk-off mode. Crude oil surged to 2026 highs, with WTI climbing 4.67% to $65.17 and Brent jumping 4.49% to $70.45 on fears that the Strait of Hormuz could see disruptions.

The FOMC minutes released Wednesday revealed a divided committee, with some officials signaling they would consider additional rate hikes if inflation proves persistent. Markets have pulled back from pricing three cuts in 2026 to just two, while Friday’s PCE price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — and the advance Q4 GDP estimate will set the tone for the coming weeks. Gold held firm near US$5,015/oz on haven demand, while the DXY pushed above 97.6.

The immediate catalyst calendar is loaded. Ecopetrol reports full-year 2025 results on March 4, with the market expecting a steep earnings decline driven by lower Brent prices and peso appreciation compressing dollar revenues. Analysts estimate the state oil company’s utilidades could drop 36–43% to between COP 8.5 and 9.5 billones. Cibest’s Q4 results, now released, will be fully digested on Thursday’s session.

The macro picture remains dominated by BanRep’s hawkish pivot. The 10.25% policy rate — the highest since the 100-basis-point hike shocked consensus on January 30 — reflects a central bank laser-focused on anchoring inflation expectations after the 23% minimum wage hike pushed its 2026 CPI forecast to 6.4%. The next BanRep decision will provide clarity on whether the board sees the rate hike cycle as complete or if further tightening is needed.

Globally, Friday’s US PCE and GDP data will be decisive for the dollar’s trajectory. A hot PCE reading would reinforce the hawkish FOMC narrative, strengthen the DXY, and pressure EM currencies including the peso. The US-Iran situation adds a wildcard: sustained Brent above $70 would support Ecopetrol’s revenue outlook but could also feed into Colombia’s inflation problem through imported fuel costs.

The COLCAP is caught between compelling corporate fundamentals and a hostile macro backdrop. Cementos Argos’s 764% total shareholder return since 2023, Cibest’s record earnings trajectory with double-digit dividend growth, and an index still up 15.4% year-to-date tell a story of a market that has legitimate reasons to be valued higher. The analyst consensus for support at 2,300 and resistance at 2,420 frames the near-term trading range.

But BanRep’s shock hike to 10.25%, inflation re-accelerating to 5.35%, and a peso under renewed pressure from a rising DXY create headwinds that individual corporate results alone cannot overcome. The COLCAP needs either a dovish pivot from the Fed to weaken the dollar, or convincing evidence that Colombia’s inflation has peaked, to reclaim the path toward its January 27 all-time high. Until then, the index is likely to consolidate between the Ichimoku cloud at 2,267–2,303 and the 2,410–2,414 resistance band — with earnings season providing the session-by-session catalysts.

Deep Dive

For the complete picture, read our in-depth guide: Latin America Stock Markets 2026: Ibovespa, Merval, COLCAP, IPSA and IPC Guide

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