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ECOPETROL · Ecopetrol
ECOPETROL is trading at 13.11 today; the session move is -0.87%. The peer strip below gives the immediate market context.
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Ecopetrol reported proven reserves (1P) of 1,944 million barrels of oil equivalent at year-end 2025, an increase of 51 MBOE — or 2.7% — over the 1,893 MBOE reported at the close of 2024. The company incorporated 300 MBOE of new proven reserves during the year, the highest addition in four years and well above the 260 MBOE added in 2024 and the 119 MBOE of 2023. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Colombia affairs and Latin American financial news.
The result is particularly notable given the headwinds. The Brent reference price used for SEC-standard reserve calculations fell 13.9%, from $79.69 per barrel in 2024 to $68.64 in 2025 — a price environment that would typically erode economically recoverable volumes. That Ecopetrol still managed to grow reserves speaks to the quality of its technical execution, particularly in enhanced oil recovery.
After deducting full-year production of 248 MBOE, the net reserve balance still rose, securing a reserve life of 7.8 years — modestly above the 7.6 years reported at year-end 2024. Some 99% of reserves were independently certified by Ryder Scott, DeGolyer & MacNaughton, and GaffneyCline & Associates.
Enhanced recovery projects were the dominant contributor, adding 142.6 MBOE — nearly half of total additions. The standout fields were Castilla, Chichimene, and Akacias, all heavy-oil assets in the Llanos Orientales basin that have become the backbone of Ecopetrol’s reserve replacement strategy. These fields benefit from mature infrastructure and decades of geological data, allowing the company to apply techniques like polymer flooding, steam injection, and water alternating gas to unlock incremental barrels at relatively low marginal cost.
The dominance of enhanced recovery over exploration-driven additions reflects a structural reality: in Colombia’s current regulatory environment, brownfield recovery from proven basins offers faster, lower-risk reserve growth than frontier exploration.
A significant administrative contributor was the materialization of agreements with the Agencia Nacional de Hidrocarburos (ANH). These contracts — which included royalty titling under ANH Resolution 0977 of 2025 and economic rights in the Tello–La Jagua fields — added approximately 100 MBOE to the revisions category. The ANH royalty allocations covered crude oil from Castilla, Akacias, Caño Sur Este, Chichimene, Rubiales, and Yariguí–Cantagallo. While these are largely accounting reclassifications rather than new geological discoveries, they represent real, commercially exploitable barrels now formally booked under SEC standards.
The third pillar was operational optimization at legacy fields, particularly Rubiales and La Cira–Infantas. These are among the oldest producing assets in Ecopetrol’s portfolio, yet improved water management, infill drilling, and debottlenecking initiatives continue to extend their productive lives. Extensions and discoveries contributed a more modest 16.1 MBOE, underscoring that the reserve growth story is fundamentally about squeezing more value from existing assets rather than material new finds.
Full-year 2025 financial results are due March 3, 2026. Through the first nine months, Ecopetrol reported revenue of COP 90.9 trillion ($24.8 billion), EBITDA of COP 36.7 trillion ($10.0 billion), and net income of COP 7.5 trillion ($2.0 billion). The EBITDA margin of 40.4% held firm, but net income fell 32% year-on-year, with roughly 76% of the decline attributable to the Brent price drop from an average of ~$83 in H1 2024 to ~$71 in H1 2025.
Q4 guidance suggested further softening: management projected Q4 revenue of COP 26–30 trillion ($7.1–8.2 billion) and EBITDA of COP 9–11 trillion ($2.5–3.0 billion), reflecting a Brent average of approximately $63 in the final quarter. For every $1 decline in Brent, Ecopetrol estimates a COP 500 billion ($136 million) hit to net income.
Despite the earnings compression, operational output hit a decade high. Average production through the first nine months reached 751,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day — the highest level in ten years — driven by strong contributions from Colombian fields like Caño Sur and CPO-09, as well as Permian basin operations in the United States. This elevated production base is what makes the 121% replacement ratio so critical: without sustained reserve additions, Ecopetrol’s asset base would deplete in under eight years at current run rates.
Ecopetrol declared a COP 214 per share dividend for fiscal 2024 (paid in 2025), representing a 58.9% payout of net income. For minority shareholders, payments were split into two installments in April and June 2025. The government — which holds 87.5% of shares — received its portion in coordination with FEPC (fuel price stabilization fund) debt repayment scheduling.
For 2026, the board approved a capital investment range of COP 22–27 trillion ($6.0–7.4 billion), maintaining the dual focus on hydrocarbon production sustainability and energy transition initiatives. The company also flexed its 2025 investment budget downward by $500 million (COP ~1.8 trillion) to protect cash flow amid lower oil prices, insisting the adjustment would not affect production or reserves.
The reserve report landed at a strategic moment for Ecopetrol. President Ricardo Roa has repeatedly emphasized that the company is managing a delicate balancing act: maintaining Colombia’s energy security while navigating the Petro government’s stated ambitions to accelerate the energy transition and reduce dependence on hydrocarbons. The strong reserve replacement ratio provides institutional ammunition to argue that the hydrocarbon business remains sustainable and investable.
Management’s framing of the results stressed resilience — the word appeared repeatedly in official communications. The ability to grow reserves even as Brent fell nearly 14% was presented as evidence of operational discipline and asset quality, not merely favorable geology. The COP 4.1 trillion ($1.1 billion) in efficiency savings achieved through Q3 2025 — with 60% directly boosting EBITDA — signals a cost-management culture that is essential in a lower-price environment.
Notably, the June 2025 declaration of commerciality at the Lorito field in Meta — estimated to hold 2,154 million barrels of original oil in place with some 250 million extractable barrels — points to a meaningful future catalyst. Ecopetrol acquired Repsol’s 45% stake in the CPO-09 block in late 2024, securing 100% ownership of this strategic Piedemonte Llanero asset.
FY2025 financial results are scheduled for March 3, 2026. The market will be watching for the full-year net income figure, which through Q3 stood at COP 7.5 trillion ($2.0 billion) — already 32% below the prior-year pace. The Q4 earnings release will also reveal the final Brent impact on the company’s dividend capacity for fiscal 2025, a critical number for both minority shareholders and the Colombian treasury.
The COP 22–27 trillion investment budget for 2026 will face scrutiny around allocation between conventional hydrocarbons and energy transition. Ecopetrol’s ISA subsidiary (electric transmission) and its growing renewable portfolio — including the 26-megawatt La Iguana solar project at the Barrancabermeja refinery — represent the transition pillar, but exploration and production still command the lion’s share of capital.
Production sustainability is the ultimate test. The 121% replacement ratio is strong, but the reserve mix is heavily tilted toward enhanced recovery of existing fields. The relatively modest 16.1 MBOE from extensions and discoveries suggests that organic exploration is not yet replacing production at scale. Whether the Lorito commercialization, continued Permian contributions, and any offshore Caribbean progress can shift that balance will determine Ecopetrol’s long-term reserve trajectory.
| Component | MBOE | Note |
| Opening Balance (Dec 2024) | 1,893 | Prior year 1P |
| Enhanced Recovery | +142.6 | Castilla, Chichimene, Akacias |
| Revisions (incl. ANH contracts) | +141.3* | ~100 MBOE from ANH |
| Extensions & Discoveries | +16.1 | New finds |
| Total Additions | +300 | 4-year high |
| Production | −248 | ~751 Kboed avg |
| Closing Balance (Dec 2025) | 1,944 | +2.7% Y/Y |
* Revisions figure derived from total additions minus enhanced recovery and extensions. Includes ~100 MBOE from ANH royalty titling per ANH Resolution 0977 of 2025.
| Metric | 2025 | 2024 |
| Proven Reserves (1P) | 1,944 MBOE | 1,893 MBOE |
| Reserve Replacement Ratio | 121% | 104% |
| Reserves Incorporated | 300 MBOE | 260 MBOE |
| Reserve Life | 7.8 years | 7.6 years |
| Brent Reference Price (SEC) | $68.64/bbl | $79.69/bbl |
| Full-Year Production | ~248 MBOE | 250 MBOE |
| Independent Certification | 99% | 99.2% |
| Revenue (9M 2025) | COP 90.9T ($24.8B) | — |
| EBITDA Margin (9M 2025) | 40.4% | — |
| 2026 Capex Guidance | COP 22–27T ($6–7B) | — |
| NYSE: EC Price | ~$12.58 | P/E 8.5x |
Oil price exposure remains the dominant risk. The 121% replacement ratio was achieved despite Brent at $68.64, but a further decline toward $60 would shrink the economically recoverable reserve base and compress both reported reserves and earnings. Management estimates each $1 drop in Brent costs COP 500 billion ($136 million) in net income — a sensitivity that makes the full-year 2025 result and the 2026 dividend highly dependent on commodity prices.
Reserve quality warrants scrutiny. The 300 MBOE addition was dominated by enhanced recovery (142.6 MBOE) and ANH contractual reclassifications (~100 MBOE), with only 16.1 MBOE from extensions and discoveries. The modest exploration contribution raises questions about long-term organic replenishment: enhanced recovery has geological limits, and contractual reclassifications are one-time events. Without a step-change in exploration success or new basin entry, the current replacement model may not be sustainable beyond the medium term.
Political and regulatory risk is ever-present. The Colombian government holds 87.5% of Ecopetrol’s shares and the company’s dividend is a significant fiscal revenue source. Tensions between the Petro administration’s energy transition rhetoric and the operational need to maintain hydrocarbon investment create policy uncertainty. Additionally, blockades and infrastructure damage — cited as contributing 13% of the 9M 2025 earnings decline — remain an operational hazard across Colombian producing regions.
Ecopetrol is Colombia’s largest company and one of the principal integrated energy groups in the Americas, with more than 19,000 employees and responsibility for over 60% of the country’s hydrocarbon production. It operates across the full value chain: exploration and production, pipeline transportation and logistics, refining and petrochemicals (Barrancabermeja and Cartagena), and — through its 51.4% stake in ISA — electric power transmission and toll road concessions across Latin America.
Geographically, approximately 89% of reserves are in Colombia, with the remaining 11% in the United States (primarily the Permian basin). The company also has exploration presence in Brazil and the Gulf of Mexico. This diversification, while modest relative to supermajors, provides some buffer against single-country risk and gives Ecopetrol exposure to one of the most prolific unconventional basins in the world.
Among Latin American national oil companies, Ecopetrol’s 121% replacement ratio compares favorably with Petrobras and YPF, both of which face their own reserve sustainability challenges. The stock trades on both the BVC in Bogotá and the NYSE in New York (ticker: EC), where it recently fetched approximately $12.58 per ADR with a trailing P/E of roughly 8.5x and a forward dividend yield above 20% — valuation metrics that reflect both the commodity risk and the generous payout policy that makes Ecopetrol a yield play for international investors.
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