Colombia Stock Market Falls 0.85% as Election Poll Blackout Begins
COLCAP Colombia market report: the index fell 0.85% to 2,083.39 on Friday May 22, opening at the day high 2,101.35 and closing at the day low — a clean Open=High bearish exhaustion. Ecopetrol led the slide (−2.46% to COP $2,575) on softer oil and a new sulfur-supply deal under review. The poll blackout now binds: Sunday’s May 24 surveys were the last public read before the May 31 first round.
The Big Three
COLCAP closed Friday at a cycle low 2,083.39 (−0.85%, −17.96 pts) on a textbook Open=High candle: open 2,101.35 = day high, close = day low. The 20.82-point range is the second narrowest of the month — distribution, not panic. The index sliced below the Kijun cluster 2,097.65 that had capped every rally since May 12.
Ecopetrol fell 2.46% to COP $2,575, intraday low $2,565, leading the slide on softer Brent and a Monomeros–Gecelca sulfur deal under union review. RSI fast 35.63 below slow 35.52 sits at the deepest oversold of the cycle, paired with a narrow MACD histogram −2.38 — the bearish momentum has not yet widened.
The political calendar is the binding constraint. The 7-day poll-publication blackout begins today — Sunday’s May 24 surveys were the last public read. Cepeda closed his campaign Friday May 23 at Bogotá’s Bolívar Square calling Uribe a “fascist”; Sunday May 24 was the legal end of all public campaign events. From here, the market trades on whispers and rallies, not data.
02 Session Data
| Metric | Value | Change | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| COLCAP close | 2,083.39 | −0.85% | Cycle low, below Kijun 2,097.65 |
| Intraday range | 2,083.39–2,104.21 | 20.82 pts | Open=High distribution candle |
| Ecopetrol (ECO) | COP $2,575 | −2.46% | Index heavyweight led slide |
| USD/COP | $3,672 | −0.78% | Peso strengthened — equity-specific selling |
| RSI (fast/slow) | 35.63 / 35.52 | Cycle low | Deepest oversold since March |
| MACD (hist/line/signal) | −2.38 / −39.99 / −42.37 | Bearish | Line still above signal; not widening yet |
| BB lower | 2,044.26 | 1.9% below | First structural support before 200-DMA |
Live Market IntelligenceColombia — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Colombia — Live Market Board
+0.40%
185,147.15
-0.02%
64,866.61
-0.87%
11,315.26
-1.14%
3,049,121
-0.29%
2,544.56
+0.40%
59,978.22
-0.31%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COLCAP | 2,544.56 | +0.40% | — | 9.04 | 9.05 | 9.02 | 4,133 |
| USD/COP | 3,140 | +0.03% | -22.04% | 3,139 | 3,141 | 3,105 | — |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| ECOPETROL | 16.92 | -0.53% | +98.01% | 17.01 | 17.05 | 16.79 | 737,591 |
| BANCOLOMBIA | 95.87 | -2.18% | +96.15% | 98.01 | 100.36 | 95.73 | 188,740 |
| GRUPO AVAL | 5.40 | +2.66% | +76.89% | 5.26 | 5.49 | 5.32 | 146,447 |
| TECNOGLASS | 42.30 | -1.10% | -48.04% | 42.77 | 42.73 | 42.05 | 60,908 |
| CREDICORP | 375.17 | -0.49% | +49.60% | 377.00 | 384.43 | 372.27 | 88,375 |
| BUENAVENTURA | 34.45 | -1.02% | +88.07% | 34.80 | 35.62 | 34.33 | 275,831 |
| SOUTHERN COPPER | 193.97 | -0.26% | +104.01% | 194.48 | 199.36 | 192.59 | 367,102 |
03 Why It Fell
Local Driver: Ecopetrol and the poll-blackout countdown
Ecopetrol’s 2.46% drop did the index work, on softer Brent and the Monomeros–Gecelca sulfur-offtake deal union sources flagged for review. Cepeda’s closing Bogotá rally Friday May 23 attacking Uribe as “fascist” raised final-week rhetoric a register; Sunday May 24 ended public campaigning. From today, the seven-day poll blackout strips the market’s primary information channel.
External Trigger: Warsh era opens, Brazil decouples down with Colombia
Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed chair Friday; traders are now pricing the Fed to hold through 2026 with hike risk for 2027. Wall Street closed at records into Memorial Day; LATAM did not — Brazil also fell 0.81% Friday. Latin America is the relative loser of the Warsh opening week.
Key Facts
— The cleanest read this week is the FX–equity divergence. Equities posted a new cycle low at 2,083 on a clean Open=High distribution, but the peso STRENGTHENED 0.78% to a two-week high near $3,672 — the kind of split that says selling is equity-specific (Ecopetrol, election overhang) rather than broad COP-weakness risk-off. The carry trade at BanRep’s 11.25% is still doing its work; foreign capital is rotating from equities into local fixed income to hold yield through the political event, not exiting Colombia outright.
— The probability tree is intact. Invamer’s April Cepeda 44.3% / De la Espriella 21.5% / Valencia 19.8% is the last firm read; AtlasIntel had Valencia beating Cepeda 47.1–39.6 head-to-head. Cepeda’s 8.5–9M ceiling sits well below the 11.4M needed to win outright, so a June 21 runoff is the base case. With polls dark, every move from here is a Bayesian update on whispers.
05 Technical Snapshot
COLCAP 2,083 sits below the Kijun cluster 2,097.65 and the BB mid 2,094.79 that capped every rally since May 12, with the cloud bottom now overhead resistance. The MACD line at −39.99 remains above signal −42.37 with a small −2.38 histogram, so the bearish cross has not widened — consistent with stabilisation rather than a fresh leg. RSI fast 35.63 below slow 35.52 marks the deepest oversold of the cycle. BB lower 2,044.26 is the first structural support; below that, the 200-DMA in the low 2,040s is the long-term uptrend line that has not been tested in this cycle.
06 Forward Look
07 Questions & Answers
Key Facts
— COLCAP printed a cycle low on a clean Open=High distribution candle, and the polls have gone dark. The peso’s 0.78% gain says this is an equity-specific event, not broad capital flight. RSI 35.63 and a narrow MACD spread argue stabilisation, but the political binary now has no information feedback for six days. Whispers and rally optics will drive the tape until Sunday.
— Related: Fri May 22 bounce report · Election preview · May 20 decoupling.
— Six days dark, one Sunday loud: the May 31 print resets the tape.
Disclaimer: This report is editorial market analysis based on publicly available data. It is not investment advice. Markets carry risk; consult a licensed professional before trading.
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