China to Become World’s Top Lithium Miner by 2026, Fastmarkets Says

China will overtake Australia as the world’s largest lithium miner by next year, according to a forecast by Fastmarkets.

This marks a major shift in the global battery supply chain, as China moves from third place in 2023 to the top spot, extracting 8,000 to 10,000 more metric tons than Australia in 2026.

By 2035, China is expected to mine 900,000 metric tons of lithium, far ahead of Australia’s 680,000 tons, Chile’s 435,000 tons, and Argentina’s 380,000 tons. China’s rapid rise comes from a clear national strategy.

The government has supported lithium mining through subsidies, local job protection, and long-term planning. Unlike Australian miners, who have cut production due to falling prices, Chinese companies keep mining even when it is not profitable.

This approach helps China maintain its market share and secure jobs, even during market downturns. Most of China’s new lithium production comes from a mineral called lepidolite, found mainly in southern China.

Mining lepidolite is more expensive and creates more waste than other methods, such as extracting lithium from salty brines in South America or hard rock spodumene in Australia.

For every ton of lithium carbonate produced from lepidolite, up to 200 tons of waste can be generated. This waste, which includes toxic by-products like thallium and tantalum, can pollute water supplies and harm local communities.

Authorities in Yichun, a major mining area, have already found toxic substances in rivers and have suspended some operations due to pollution concerns. Despite these environmental challenges, China continues to expand its lithium industry.

China’s Stranglehold on Global Lithium Refining and Processing

The country already refines about 70% of the world’s lithium, turning it into battery-grade material. This means China not only mines the metal but also processes it for use in electric vehicles and energy storage.

More than 60% of all electric vehicles sold globally last year were in China, showing the country’s strong demand for batteries. China’s dominance in lithium is part of a larger strategy to control critical minerals needed for new technologies.

The country also leads in refining other important battery minerals, such as cobalt, graphite, and manganese. This gives China a powerful position in the global shift to electric vehicles and renewable energy.

However, China’s strategy comes with risks. The environmental impact of lepidolite mining is significant, and stricter regulations or public backlash could slow growth.

At the same time, other countries are working to increase their own lithium production and processing to reduce reliance on China. Australia, Chile, and Argentina all have plans to expand output, and new projects are underway in North America and Europe.

China’s move to the top of the lithium mining world matters for everyone. It affects the price and supply of batteries, the pace of electric vehicle adoption, and the environmental footprint of the clean energy transition.

As demand for lithium keeps rising, the world will watch how China balances growth, profit, and environmental responsibility.