Chilean Market Bounces 2% From Four-Month Low as Oil Retreat Lifts SQM and Banks
The Big Three
The Banco Central de Chile held its rate at 4.50% on Tuesday and released its March IPoM, raising inflation forecasts due to the energy shock while cutting 2026 GDP growth projections — a stagflationary signal that capped the prior session’s selloff.
The IPSA surged +2.00% to 10,409.95, recovering more than 270 points from Tuesday’s four-month low of 10,132.74. SQM-B led with +6.7% and Banco de Chile added +3.1%.
Brent crude fell below $103 after Trump’s 15-point Iran ceasefire proposal, though Tehran rejected the offer. The oil pullback gave Chile — a net energy importer — immediate relief from the cost pressures flagged in the IPoM.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| IPSA Close | 10,409.95 | +2.00% |
| IPSA Prior Close (4-mo low) | 10,132.74 | −0.9% (Tue) |
| IPSA ATH (Feb 12) | 11,721.38 | −11.19% |
| BCCh Policy Rate | 4.50% | Held (Mar 24) |
| Brent Crude | $102.22 | −2.2% |
| S&P 500 | 6,591.90 | +0.54% |
| VIX | 25.33 | −6.01% |
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02 Equities
The Chile stock market IPSA today snapped a four-session losing streak with a +2.00% jump to 10,409.95, its best session since the January 5 record-setting rally. The rebound was driven by two heavyweight names: SQM-B surged +6.7% on the oil-driven decompression, and Banco de Chile gained +3.1%. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Chile’s stock market and Latin American financial markets.
Diario Financiero noted the rally was not structural — it reflected a partial decompression from extreme pessimism rather than a fundamental shift. The prior session had left the IPSA at 10,132.74, its lowest since November 28, 2025, after four consecutive losing days driven by Andina-B (−4%), Mallplaza (−3.5%), and Quiñenco (−3.1%).
The pre-war consensus of an IPSA at 12,200 by year-end remains under serious revision. Redimin noted that any projection depends on whether the Middle East energy shock continues to dominate the macro outlook.
03 Currency
The Banco Central de Chile held its policy rate at 4.50% on Tuesday March 24, as widely expected. The accompanying March IPoM was the session’s key macro event: the central bank raised its short-term inflation forecasts sharply, citing energy cost pass-through from the war, while cutting the 2026 GDP growth range.
This stagflationary combination — higher prices and lower growth — leaves the BCCh in a policy bind. Rate cuts to support the economy risk fueling inflation, while hikes to contain prices would choke an already-slowing expansion. The peso remains vulnerable to further oil spikes, as Chile imports nearly all its fuel.
04 Technical Analysis — S&P IPSA Daily
The index opened at 10,206 — precisely at the prior close — and rallied steadily to an intraday high of 10,445.73 before settling at 10,409.95. The bullish candle reclaimed the 10,400 zone, though it remains well below the 10,540 resistance that marked the late-February consolidation.
The MACD histogram at −145.619 remains deeply negative, and the MACD line (−3.486) is just beginning to curl upward. RSI at 44.22/41.46 stays below 50, signaling the broader trend is still bearish despite Wednesday’s relief bounce. The 200-day SMA at approximately 9,585 provides the structural floor.
05 Key Levels
| Level | IPSA |
| Resistance 3 | 10,540.46 |
| Resistance 2 | 10,482.85 |
| Resistance 1 | 10,445.73 |
| Current Close | 10,409.95 |
| Support 1 | 10,393.02 |
| Support 2 | 10,206.16 |
| Support 3 | 10,067.63 |
06 Global Context
Wall Street rose with the S&P 500 up +0.54% to 6,591.90 on the Iran peace plan. Brent dropped −2.2% to $102.22 as the oil selloff — at one point down 7% intraday — gave net importers like Chile its first breather in weeks. The VIX fell −6.01% to 25.33.
07 Looking Ahead
The IPoM’s stagflationary signal is now the central reference for Chilean assets. If oil sustains above $100, the BCCh’s rate path is frozen — no room to cut. A meaningful pullback toward $90 would reopen the easing conversation and could support a more durable IPSA recovery.
SQM-B’s outsized move on Wednesday underscores the index’s sensitivity to global commodity flows. Copper remains the other key variable — any US-China trade escalation or demand signal could amplify or reverse the Chilean equity rebound. The Kast government’s political handling of energy costs adds a domestic wildcard.
08 Verdict
The IPSA’s +2.00% bounce was a relief rally from oversold conditions, not a trend reversal. RSI remains below 50, the MACD histogram is deeply negative, and the index sits −11.19% from its February all-time high. The IPoM’s stagflation warning limits the BCCh’s ability to support growth, keeping the macro headwind firmly in place.
Bias: Neutral to cautiously bearish. Wednesday proved Chile’s market can snap back fast when oil retreats, but the structural setup — frozen rate path, energy cost pass-through, and a growth downgrade — favors sellers on rallies until Brent drops sustainably below $100.
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