Chile State of the Nation Preview: Kast Faces Polls and Codelco

CHILE · POLITICS

The Chile State of the Nation preview reads as a balancing act. Plaza Pública Cadem released figures on Thursday showing Kast government approval at 39 percent against 56 percent disapproval, alongside a Codelco-ownership question where 56 percent want the state copper miner to remain fully public.

What the Chile State of the Nation preview shows on the numbers

Cadem’s Plaza Pública survey, released Thursday, recorded the fifth-week-of-May reading at 39 percent approval and 56 percent disapproval for President Kast. Approval fell two points from the previous week. Disapproval rose one point and now sits two points below its peak of 58 percent reported on May 15.

The methodology brief details 1,002 online interviews conducted across 165 communes nationally. Cadem is one of three regularly published Chilean pollsters tracking weekly presidential approval, alongside Pulso Ciudadano and CEP. The survey is widely cited in Chilean political coverage but, like any single methodology, carries its own design choices.

Cadem also asked what citizens want from the Cuenta Pública itself. Forty-four percent said the speech should be used principally to recognize government errors and correct course, while forty percent said it should focus on new announcements and reforms. Six percent said it should showcase achievements.

The Codelco question and what the Chile State of the Nation preview tells investors

On Codelco’s ownership structure, the same Cadem release recorded 56 percent backing for keeping the company fully state-owned. Twenty-six percent supported opening part of the company to private firms or funds. Seven percent backed full privatization.

The poll question lands amid a live policy debate. The Senate’s Mining and Energy Commission heard from Biminister Daniel Mas in April on government priorities. Opposition senators Yasna Provoste, Daniel Núñez and Miguel Ángel Calisto pressed the executive on whether earlier statements about needing “more private and less state” pointed toward privatizing the copper company.

Codelco chairman Máximo Pacheco told the Senate commission in mid-May that any decision on company ownership rests exclusively with Congress. He highlighted the privileged position of a copper-and-lithium producer in current global demand conditions. The Pacheco appearance drew critical questioning on financial performance and project cost overruns from commission president Cristián Tapia.

What Kast’s policy track record signals

The Kast government has signalled openness to private-sector deepening in mining without endorsing outright Codelco privatization on the record. Biminister Mas, on his Senate visit, focused on permitting reform, the future of state mining holdings, and royalty allocation, without confirming a privatization push for the state miner itself.

In context, Codelco lost its status as Chile’s largest single copper producer to private operator Escondida several years ago. The state miner has pursued partnership models, including the Nova Andino Litio joint venture with SQM in the Salar de Atacama and a separate lithium-brine partnership with Rio Tinto in Salar de Maricunga. Both were structured under the prior administration.

For investors, the Codelco governance question matters because of its financial weight. The company is among the world’s largest copper producers and its capital structure depends on Treasury support, sovereign borrowing capacity and operational performance. Royalty revenue from the 2023 mining-tax law is now distributing through the Fondo Comunas Mineras and Fondo Equidad Territorial to municipalities nationally.

Security and the economy: where the Kast speech is likeliest to land

Cadem found 61 percent of respondents wanted the Cuenta Pública to prioritize crime, security and organized-crime issues. The Kast government has made domestic security a central political pillar, hosted this week’s regional Compromiso Regional de Santiago on transnational organized crime, and faces continued pressure on policing and border-control measures.

On economic policy, 46 percent prioritized employment and cost-of-living issues. The reconstruction plan registered 23 percent, fiscal adjustment 20 percent and health 18 percent. The combination suggests citizens want concrete near-term economic deliverables alongside the security framing.

Eighty-eight percent of Cadem respondents wanted Kast to commit to clear targets to 2030 with concrete examples of announcements. Eighty-seven percent wanted the speech used to recommunicate government objectives. Both metrics frame the address as a chance to reset narrative rather than only to defend it.

What the Chile State of the Nation preview means for regional readers

For Latin American business audiences, the Cuenta Pública matters as a signal-setting event. Kast’s framing of mining governance, security posture and fiscal trajectory will shape investor expectations for the second half of 2026. Chile’s policy choices on Codelco echo similar debates in Peru, Bolivia and Mexico on state-owned commodity producers.

The 56 percent public support for keeping Codelco fully state-owned constrains the political space for radical reform regardless of executive preference. Any structural change to the company would require congressional approval, as Pacheco emphasized at the Senate. That institutional friction is itself a stabilizer.

For copper-price watchers, the practical outcome may be incremental: more joint ventures, more royalty-system tweaks, more private participation in adjacent segments. The state ownership of Codelco itself looks politically protected for now. Regional comparisons will sharpen as Chile’s announcements land.

Frequently Asked Questions

When is the Chilean Cuenta Pública and what is it?

It is the constitutionally mandated annual presidential address before Congreso Pleno, the joint session of both chambers. President Kast delivers his first on Monday, June 1, 2026, in Valparaíso. The format combines policy retrospective with forward-looking announcements.

How reliable is the Cadem survey?

Plaza Pública Cadem is a weekly Chilean methodology with declared sample frame, this week 1,002 online interviews across 165 communes. It is one of three regularly published Chilean pollsters, alongside Pulso Ciudadano and CEP. Each methodology has trade-offs and reading any one in isolation has limits.

Is Codelco being privatized?

No structural ownership change is currently before Congress. Codelco chairman Máximo Pacheco told the Senate that any privatization decision rests with the legislature. The Kast government has not proposed Codelco privatization on the record.

What economic data points should investors watch around the speech?

Watch the fiscal trajectory framing, royalty-distribution announcements, permitting-reform progress, and any specific copper or lithium project commitments. Chilean peso behaviour around the address is also worth tracking for sentiment signals.

How does this compare to other Latin American state-owned commodity debates?

Chile’s Codelco debate parallels questions around Petrobras in Brazil, Pemex in Mexico, and YPF in Argentina. Each country balances state strategic interest against capital efficiency and private participation in different ways. The 56 percent state-ownership preference is at the higher end of regional public-opinion baselines on this question.

Connected Coverage

For broader regional market context, see our Morgan Stanley Latin American currency outlook and our piece on the global bond selloff and Latin America. For commercial real-estate trends, see Latin American office occupancy leaders.

The Rio Times — Latin American financial news — riotimesonline.com