Latin American Pulse for Friday, May 29, 2026

Friday’s Latin American Pulse opens with six institutional reads. President José Antonio Kast’s disapproval climbs to 56% on the eve of his first Cuenta Pública. A fresh Cadem poll shows 56% of Chileans want Codelco to remain fully state-owned.

That cuts against the privatisation thread of the new chairman’s mandate. Washington has reportedly ordered the Justice Department to halt its financial-crimes investigation of acting Venezuelan president Delcy Rodríguez.

The aim is to accelerate the oil-sector reopening. She has promised “more petroleras in the coming weeks.” Mexico’s IPC fell 1.65% in a banking-led selloff, with Banorte off more than 7%. Colombia’s credit-default-swap premia sit at recent highs.

The market is pricing a possible Cepeda win three days from the first round. Peru’s runoff is opening up. The undecided share has doubled to 26% ten days before the vote. Argentina’s MERVAL booked a third consecutive record.

Today’s intelligence brief tracks six institutional decisions across the Thursday close.

01 · Chile — Kast Disapproval Hits 56% as Voters Side Against Codelco Privatisation on the Eve of the Cuenta Pública Bearish

A fresh Cadem Plaza Pública survey released Thursday put disapproval of President José Antonio Kast at 56%, up one point, against approval of 39%, down two — a complex setting four days before his first Cuenta Pública to Congress on Monday June 1. The poll also tested Codelco amid the inflated-output scandal.

45% of Chileans rated the state miner’s image between 1 and 4 and only 31% between 6 and 7, but 56% said the company should remain “completely state-owned,” with 26% favouring opening part of ownership and 7% supporting full privatisation. The numbers cut against the privatisation thread implicit in chairman Fontaine’s audit mandate and frame Monday’s speech.

02 · Venezuela — Washington Reported to Halt the DOJ Probe Against Delcy as Caracas Promises More Oil Companies Volatile

The White House has ordered the Justice Department to suspend a financial-crimes investigation against acting president Delcy Rodríguez to accelerate the reopening of Venezuela’s oil sector, according to internal records obtained by The Associated Press.

The Tampa probe — opened last year by then–Attorney General Pam Bondi — falls under the protocol requiring the Attorney General to personally authorise charges against a sitting foreign head of state, an approval that is not coming.

The DOJ spokesman said no investigation existed “to close.” Hours earlier Rodríguez announced from Caracas that more oil firms will arrive “in the coming weeks,” following the Bloomberg report on the Exxon and ConocoPhillips return talks.

03 · Mexico — The IPC Drops 1.65% in a Banking-Led Selloff With Banorte Down More Than 7% Neutral

Mexico’s S&P/BMV IPC closed Thursday down 1.65% at 68,866.28 points, snapping a two-session bounce, with 32 of the 35 component names lower in a session led by financials: Banorte fell 7.18%, Walmex 3.88%, Genomma Lab 2.74%, and Grupo Carso and Coca-Cola Femsa each about 2.45%.

The peso firmed 0.17% to 17.32 per dollar despite the equity weakness, and traded volume reached 251 million titles for about $1.65 billion in notional.

The session followed Wednesday’s security-cabinet briefing on the 49% homicide-drop claim and lands four days before President Claudia Sheinbaum’s two-year report at the Monumento a la Revolución on Sunday May 31.

04 · Colombia — Credit-Default-Swap Premia at Recent Highs Three Days From the First Round Neutral

Colombian risk assets carried elevated stress into the campaign’s final hours: credit-default-swap spreads reached recent highs and the TES bond market saw volatility through the week as investors priced the possibility of an Iván Cepeda first-round victory Sunday May 31, with banking ADRs giving back part of Wednesday’s surge as the COLCAP eased 0.56% to 2,182.57.

Cepeda of the Pacto Histórico leads polls near 38%, with the right’s Abelardo de la Espriella around 28% and Paloma Valencia near 18%; pollsters profile a runoff between Cepeda and one of the right candidates. The vote runs Sunday 8am to 4pm under poll blackout, the security backdrop tense after recent attacks.

05 · Peru — The Runoff Opens Up as Undecided Voters Double to 26% Ten Days From the Vote Neutral

A new IEP poll released Thursday put Keiko Fujimori at 36% to Roberto Sánchez at 30% — a six-point lead — but the structural finding was the undecided share, which doubled from 13% to 26% since April, with blank or null falling to 6%.

The reshuffle puts roughly a quarter of the electorate in play with ten days to the June 7 runoff and the final debate set for Sunday May 31 at the Centro de Convenciones in Lima.

Sánchez has been pulled in two directions, attempting to distance himself from etnocacerista Antauro Humala while his oral-trial hearing on alleged false campaign-contribution declarations was reprogrammed to June 4.

06 · Argentina — The MERVAL Books a Third Consecutive Record as the Treasury Auction Clears at the Maximum Bullish

Argentina’s S&P MERVAL closed Thursday up 0.57% at 3,089,497 points, a third consecutive record but a more measured advance than the prior session’s 5.05% jump. The structural follow-on was at the Treasury.

Wednesday’s auction and Thursday’s second-round adhesión placed the maximum allowed of about US$555 million in BONAR 2027 and 2028 dollar bonds, at corte prices of $1,015.33 and $952.50 respectively, with peso rollovers also above 100% — adding hard-currency reserves and lengthening the local-debt curve into June, the heaviest maturity month of the semester.

The combination of equity follow-through and a clean dollar placement deepens the reform-credibility re-rate the desk has been tracking through the week.

What to Watch

• Fri May 29 · Bolivia — whether the Conferencia Episcopal mediation with Argollo safe-conduct produces any sectoral attendance
• Fri May 29 · Brazil — first IRPF refund batch of R$16bn pays to 8.75 million taxpayers; US PCE print
• Sat May 30 · Brazil — IRPF filing deadline; Libertadores last-16 draw, Luque, Paraguay
• Sun May 31 · Colombia first round; Mexico’s two-year report at the Monumento a la Revolución; Peru presidential debate, Lima
• Mon Jun 1 · Chile — Kast’s first Cuenta Pública to Congress with Codelco on the table
• Wed Jun 4 · Peru — reprogrammed Sánchez nullity hearing
• Thu Jun 5 · Rubio sanctions against Cuba’s GAESA tighten
• Sun Jun 7 · Peru presidential runoff — Fujimori vs Sánchez
• Wed–Thu Jun 17–18 · Brazil Copom decision on the 14.75% Selic
• Sun Jun 21 · Colombia presidential runoff; Jun 25 · Ecopetrol-Brava tender auction

Coverage Tease

Today’s Dossier opens with the Editor’s Leader on Chile’s pre–Cuenta-Pública bind — what it means when a centre-right reform government faces the public on the wrong side of public opinion on its flagship institutional case.

The Deep Dive returns to Bolivia with the Episcopal-mediation track now opening alongside the rupture-by-decree option, re-revising three scenarios. The Country Risk Dashboard scores ten LATAM economies on five proprietary dimensions. The Trade and Positioning section refreshes the Chilean and Venezuelan reads on the new information.

FAQ

Why does the Cadem poll matter for Kast?
Because it lands four days before his first Cuenta Pública on Monday June 1, and because the substantive question it tested — what to do with Codelco — pulls in the opposite direction from where his administration has been leaning.

Disapproval rose to 56% and approval fell to 39% in the Plaza Pública survey, and 61% of Chileans told the pollsters the speech should centre on public security and organised crime.

On Codelco, the inflated-output scandal that defined the first weeks of the term has eroded the company’s image — 45% rated it between 1 and 4, only 31% between 6 and 7 — but the cure the public wants is statist, not liberalising.

56% said Codelco should remain “completely state-owned,” only 26% supported opening part of the equity, and 7% backed full privatisation. That collides with the privatisation thread implicit in chairman Bernardo Fontaine’s external-audit mandate and reshapes the politics of what the president can credibly announce on Monday.

The Cuenta Pública now becomes a balancing act between the security frame voters want and a Codelco posture that the public is signalling it will not absorb.

What is happening with the US case against Delcy Rodríguez?
According to The Associated Press, citing internal DEA records, the White House has ordered the Justice Department to halt a financial-crimes investigation opened last year against then–vice-president and now acting president Delcy Rodríguez, in order to accelerate the reopening of Venezuela’s oil sector.

The probe, run from Tampa, originally fell under the umbrella commissioned by then–Attorney General Pam Bondi into the Caracas leadership’s finances; once Rodríguez became head of state after Nicolás Maduro’s January capture, DOJ protocols required the Attorney General to personally authorise any charge against a foreign head of state — an authorisation that is not coming.

A DOJ spokesperson told the AP there was no investigation “to close,” a formulation the news organisation describes as inconsistent with the internal records.

Hours earlier, Rodríguez announced from Caracas that more oil companies will return “in the coming weeks,” following the Bloomberg report that ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips are pressing for production-sharing guarantees and resolution of the ConocoPhillips $12 billion 2012 ICSID arbitration award.

The package — legal cover plus commercial access — turns the post-intervention transition into an openly transactional one.

Why did Mexico’s IPC drop so sharply?
Because the selloff was concentrated rather than systemic. The S&P/BMV IPC closed down 1.65% at 68,866.28 in a session in which 32 of the 35 index components fell, but the leadership was specific: financials.

Banorte dropped 7.18% in a single session and Walmex 3.88%, with Genomma Lab, Grupo Carso and Coca-Cola Femsa each off about 2.45%. The peso firmed slightly, 0.17% to 17.32 per dollar, which argues against a broad risk-off read on Mexican assets; this looks like a domestic-bank-specific event, not a peso or sovereign-credit story.

Context matters: the session followed Wednesday’s security-cabinet 49% homicide-drop briefing — which did not translate into a sustained equity bid — and precedes President Claudia Sheinbaum’s two-year report at the Monumento a la Revolución on Sunday.

The desk reads the move as an idiosyncratic financial-sector unwind on no surfaced macro driver, against an IPC still up 7.09% year to date.