Chile Lowers Its 2026 Growth Outlook After a Weak Start

CHILE · ECONOMY

Chile has cut its forecast for economic growth this year to 2.1%, after the economy contracted at the start of 2026, in the new government’s first official assessment of the public finances.

What changed in the forecast

The Finance Ministry trimmed its 2026 growth estimate to 2.1%, from the 2.4% it projected in its previous quarterly report. The downgrade brings the government’s view closer to that of many private forecasters.

Officials linked the cut to a weak opening to the year. The economy contracted 0.5% in the first quarter compared with a year earlier, its poorest January-to-March result since 2009.

The report also assumes mining output will be flat this year, a notable change for an economy that is the world’s top copper producer. The projection for average inflation was put at about 3.7%.

Chile’s fiscal backdrop

The assessment is the first public-finances report issued by the new administration, which took office recently. It noted that 2025 closed with a structural deficit wider than the target set under the previous government.

The report projects that gross government debt would cross the 45% of output that officials treat as a prudent ceiling later this decade. The government said it would set out corrective steps to steady the public accounts.

For the wider region, Chile‘s slower outlook is a reminder that even its steadier economies face headwinds. Much will hinge on copper and on whether activity picks up over the rest of the year.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Chile’s new growth forecast?

The Finance Ministry now expects the economy to grow 2.1% in 2026, down from 2.4% in its previous report. It cited a weak first quarter and flat mining output.

Why was it cut?

The economy contracted 0.5% in the first quarter, its weakest start since 2009, and the report now assumes no growth in mining this year, a key sector for Chile.

What about the public finances?

It is the new government’s first such report. It noted a 2025 structural deficit wider than the prior target and projected debt crossing the 45% prudent ceiling later this decade, with corrective steps promised.

Connected Coverage

For more on Chile’s economy, see our coverage of its salmon export sector. For a regional comparison, see our report on Colombia’s 2026 growth outlook.