Rice Giant Camil Sinks 18% After Its Profit Falls by More Than Half
Camil Results Fiscal 1Q26: What Happened
Camil Alimentos S.A. (B3: CAML3) is Brazil's dominant packaged staple-foods group — rice above all, plus beans, sugar, canned fish, pasta and coffee — with operations stretching into Uruguay, Chile, Peru and Ecuador. Its fiscal year runs March to February, which is why it opens every Brazilian earnings season: the quarter it reported on July 14 covers March through May 2026.
Net profit came in at R$28 million ($5.5M), 57.6% below the R$66 million ($13M) of the same quarter last year. The number was weak but broadly anticipated; what the market punished was the composition. CAML3 fell 18.18% to R$4.41 the next session, closing on its low, per InfoMoney's account, and drifted to R$4.30 the day after.
The panel explains the violence of the move. With a free float of barely 9%, CAML3 trades thin; a disappointment meets few natural buyers. And at half of book value, the market is pricing not a bad quarter but a structurally difficult year.
Key Drivers Behind the Camil Results
Grain deflation is the core of it. Rice prices have fallen hard from their 2024-25 peaks across the Mercosur growing belt, and Camil's international arm — Uruguay is a major rice exporter — caught the full force: 26% more volume sold, 32% lower prices, revenue down 15%. When prices fall faster than volumes rise, mills earn less on every additional ton they move.
Brazil behaved differently. Domestic net revenue rose 5% to R$2.0 billion ($392M), volumes grew 14%, and realized prices fell only 8% — better than the sell side feared. Adjusted domestic EBITDA edged up 2% to R$164 million ($32M) at an 8.1% margin. The home market's brand strength is doing what commodity exposure abroad cannot.
Financing costs complete the squeeze. Staple-foods processing runs on working capital, and with the Selic still elevated, interest expense eats a company earning R$28 million ($5M) a quarter alive. Bradesco BBI ranks Camil the single most rate-sensitive earnings profile in its coverage universe.
Camil Fiscal 1Q26 Financial Detail
| Metric | 1Q25 (fiscal) | 1Q26 (fiscal) | Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net profit | R$66.0 mn ($13M) | R$28.0 mn ($5.5M) | −57.6% |
| Brazil net revenue | R$1.90 bn ($372M) | R$2.00 bn ($392M) | +5% |
| Brazil adj. EBITDA | R$161 mn ($32M) | R$164 mn ($32M) | +2% |
| Brazil EBITDA margin | 8.3% | 8.1% | −20 bps |
| International adj. EBITDA | R$69 mn ($14M) | R$36 mn ($7M) | −48% |
| International volumes | — | — | +26% |
| International realized prices | — | — | −32% |
Note the asymmetry: the international book grew volumes faster than any other line in the company and still halved its earnings. That is what a price war against a bumper crop looks like on a P&L.
The consolidated accounts frame the quarter's problem precisely: Camil grew revenue 48% over five fiscal years while net income fell by more than two thirds. Scale went up; the price environment took the profit anyway:
| Fiscal year (Feb-end) | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2022 | R$7.5 bn ($1.5B) | R$886 mn ($174M) | R$478 mn ($94M) |
| FY2023 | R$9.0 bn ($1.8B) | R$1.06 bn ($208M) | R$478 mn ($94M) |
| FY2024 | R$11.2 bn ($2.2B) | R$1.11 bn ($218M) | R$360 mn ($71M) |
| FY2025 | R$12.3 bn ($2.4B) | R$1.18 bn ($231M) | R$217 mn ($43M) |
| FY2026 | R$11.1 bn ($2.2B) | R$901 mn ($177M) | R$148 mn ($29M) |
Net debt of R$4.5 billion ($882M) sits against R$3.0 billion ($588M) of equity and a trailing consolidated EBITDA of roughly R$830 million ($163M) — leverage in the region of five times trailing EBITDA on EODHD's consolidated figures (the company's own adjusted measure runs lower, but the direction is the same). With the Selic still in double digits, that debt stack is the mechanism by which Bradesco BBI's 'most rate-sensitive name in coverage' verdict becomes arithmetic: interest expense currently absorbs most of what the operations earn.
What the Banks Say About Camil
Bradesco BBI: 2026 is proving harder than expected, low grain prices may persist until the 2026-27 harvest brings supply visibility, and free cash flow will stay constrained while rates stay high. Itaú BBA: there is still long-term value to unlock; Brazilian gross margin was the quarter's positive surprise, though its repeatability is unproven. BBA's catalyst: a stronger El Niño lifting rice-price expectations for the next crop.
The consensus target of R$7.50 implies 74% upside — a number that says less about conviction than about how far the stock has fallen below any reasonable through-cycle valuation. Value investors will note 0.50x book; skeptics will note there is no dividend while they wait.
What to Watch Next for Camil
Rice prices: Southern-cone crop forecasts and any El Niño intensification are the single biggest swing factor for fiscal 2026. Selic path: as the coverage's most rate-sensitive name, every cut repriced into the curve matters more here than almost anywhere on the B3. Fiscal 2Q26 (June–August), due in October: whether Brazil's margin resilience holds and international prices find a floor. Leverage: net debt trends while EBITDA is compressed.
Risks Facing Camil
Grain deflation could run longer than the banks assume if the 2026-27 harvest disappoints expectations of tightness. The 9% free float cuts both ways — thin liquidity amplifies any downside surprise. High rates for longer would extend the financing squeeze. And El Niño, the bull catalyst, is a weather forecast: it may simply not deliver.
Brazilian Staple Foods Sector Context
Camil's quarter is the cleanest read anywhere on what cheap food is doing to South America's farm-belt processors. The same price collapse that squeezes a rice miller in São Paulo is relief for consumers and for central banks fighting inflation — one reason Brazil's IPCA prints keep surprising to the downside. For foreign investors the stock has become a leveraged bet on two reversals at once: grain prices and Brazilian interest rates. Neither is dated; both are priced at half of book.
This report is part of The Rio Times' Company Intelligence coverage of B3-listed companies. It is journalism, not investment advice.
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