Brazil’s Morning Call for Tuesday, March 31, 2026

Where We Left Off MONDAY, MAR 30 — B3 CLOSE

Powell spoke, yields dropped, and stocks still fell — but not everywhere. The Ibovespa opened at 181,561 and rallied to 184,414 intraday before settling at 182,514.20 (+0.53%). The rally was broad-based with energy names leading. Brazil’s domestic floor — the 14.75% carry, IPCA-15 disinflation, and May cut expectations — continues to attract capital.

Wall Street was mixed. The Dow eked out a 49-point gain (+0.11%), but the S&P 500 lost 0.39% to 6,344 and the Nasdaq dropped 0.73% to 20,795 as Micron crashed 10% and semis continued to bleed from Google’s TurboQuant algorithm disruption. The S&P 500 is now 9% off its highs — one more percent to correction.

Powell’s Harvard appearance was the session’s defining moment. He said policy is “in a good place,” won’t hike to address oil-driven inflation, and saw no systemic risk from the correction. The 10Y dropped ~10 bps to 4.33%. Bond traders loved it — equity traders shrugged as WTI crossed $100 for the first time since 2022. Bessent’s “retake control of the Straits” and Trump’s “take the oil” comments escalated the rhetoric further.

LatAm delivered a strong session. Argentina’s MERVAL surged 2.57% — the best LatAm performer — while Mexico’s IPC gained 0.60% and Chile’s IPSA was flat. Colombia’s COLCAP dipped 0.80%. As covered in yesterday’s Morning Call, Brazil’s decoupling from US equities continues to widen. Gold rallied 1.52% to $4,580 and silver surged 3.29% as the safe-haven bid strengthened post-Powell.

Market Snapshot DATA AS OF MON, MAR 30 CLOSE

What to Watch TUESDAY CATALYSTS

EU CPI flash at 05:00 ET (cons: 2.6% YoY vs 1.9% prev) is the war’s first comprehensive European inflation reading. After Spain’s 3.6% shock, this will confirm whether the oil pass-through is broad-based or concentrated. French CPI (cons: 1.6% vs 0.9% prev) and Italian CPI round out the picture. A hot EU print pushes ECB hawks and raises global rate expectations.

CB Consumer Confidence at 10:00 ET (cons: 87.8, prev: 91.2) and JOLTS Job Openings (cons: 6.89M) are the US sentiment reads. If confidence drops below 85 — levels last seen in the pandemic — the recession drumbeat intensifies. Chicago PMI at 09:45 ET (cons: 54.8) tests manufacturing resilience. Colombia’s rate decision at 14:00 ET (cons: 11.25%) is the LatAm central bank event.

Brazil’s domestic data: fiscal balance and debt-to-GDP (07:30 BRT), PPI (08:00 BRT), and CAGED net payroll jobs (13:30 BRT, cons: 270K). Four Fed speakers — Goolsbee, Schmid, Barr, Bowman — will interpret Powell’s dovish signal. This is Q1’s last trading session — portfolio marks are final at the close.

Ibovespa Setup TECHNICAL LEVELS

The Ibovespa closed at 182,514.20 (+0.53%). RSI recovered to 51.06 (MA: 47.91) — back above 50. The MACD histogram rose to 78.83 (MACD: −53.60, signal: −132.43) — the bullish crossover is strengthening with three consecutive positive histogram readings. Volume on Monday’s intraday rally to 184,414 suggests buyers are active.

Resistance: 182,514 (Monday close) → 182,316 / 182,276 (upper SMA cluster) → 183,831 (swing high) → 185,988 (upper Bollinger).

Support: 181,422 (mid-range) → 181,333 / 181,188 (SMA cluster) → 180,720 (50-day) → 177,299 (lower SMA) → 176,677 (lower Bollinger) → 155,131 (200-day).

Copom Watch SELIC AT 14.75% · NEXT MEETING: MAY 6-7

Powell’s refusal to hike is the best global backdrop the BCB could ask for. If the Fed holds through the oil shock and says rates are “in a good place,” the BCB has cover to proceed with the May cut. The IPCA-15 at 3.74% and the Focus Survey’s anchored expectations reinforce the case.

However, Brent above $112 and WTI above $100 create genuine forward-looking inflation risk. If today’s EU CPI flash shows broad-based war-driven inflation, the market may begin to question whether any central bank — including the BCB — can cut into an energy shock of this magnitude. Colombia’s decision at 14:00 ET (cons: 11.25% from 10.25%) will signal whether LatAm central banks are hawking up again.

Economic Calendar TUESDAY, MAR 31

Latin America Markets MONDAY CLOSE

Argentina’s MERVAL is the Q1 standout, surging 2.57% on Monday with RSI at 57.89 — the highest in LatAm and the only index approaching overbought territory. Milei’s reform momentum is providing a domestic bid that transcends the war noise. Brazil and Mexico posted matching gains, while Colombia lagged ahead of today’s rate decision.

Commodities & FX KEY MOVES

Oil crossed a psychological threshold: WTI settled at $102.88 (+3.25%), its first close above $100 since the war began. Brent hovered near $112. Trump’s FT interview — saying he wants to “take the oil” and that US forces could seize Iran’s Kharg Island export hub — escalated the rhetoric to a new level. Bessent’s “retake control of the Straits” language suggests operational planning, not just diplomacy.

Gold surged 1.52% to $4,580 and silver popped 3.29% to $72.39 — the best precious metals day in two weeks. Powell’s dovish hold and the 10 bps drop in yields boosted non-yielding assets. Gold’s RSI at 40.77 (MA: 37.94) shows recovery momentum building from deeply oversold levels.

USD/BRL held at R$5.25, utterly stable despite global volatility. RSI at 52.03 — perfectly neutral. The real is trading on its own fundamentals: 14.75% carry, disinflation, and institutional flows. Bitcoin recovered to $67,662 (+1.40%), finding a modest bid alongside the broader risk assets.

Yields were the session’s biggest move. The 10Y dropped ~10 bps to 4.33% on Powell’s dovish signal. The 2Y fell even more — down to 3.83%. The yield curve flattening suggests the bond market believes the Fed will eventually cut, even with oil at $100+. The VIX eased to 30.61 but remains above 30, elevated.

Risk Map BULL vs BEAR

Positioning BOTTOM LINE