Brazil’s Morning Call for Monday, March 30, 2026

Where We Left Off FRIDAY, MAR 27 — B3 CLOSE

The Ibovespa opened at 182,733 and drifted lower to close at 181,556.76 (−0.64%), touching 180,976 intraday. The modest decline contrasted sharply with the carnage in New York, where the Dow lost nearly 800 points. Brazil’s relative resilience — losing just 0.64% vs. 1.73% for the Dow — extends the week’s decoupling pattern.

The S&P 500 cratered 1.67% to 6,368.85 — its lowest since August and a fifth consecutive weekly loss, the longest such streak since 2022. The Nasdaq fell 2.15% to 20,948, now 13% below its October highs. The Dow shed 793 points and entered correction territory at 45,167. The Magnificent Seven lost over $330 billion in market cap on Friday alone.

Brent surged past $112 and WTI topped $100 as Hormuz incidents continued. The 10-year yield hit 4.46%, its highest since July, as BofA noted markets are now pricing a “hawkish Fed reaction function” and a “broader commodity shock.” Gold rose 0.79% to $4,529 and silver gained 1.06% to $70.52 — the safe-haven rotation deepened.

Trump extended the Iran strike deadline by 10 days to April 6, giving diplomacy more time but also prolonging uncertainty. As covered in Friday’s Morning Call, the Ibovespa’s weekly performance (+3.0% Mon-Fri) while the S&P 500 lost 2.1% is the widest weekly spread since the war began.

Market Snapshot DATA AS OF FRI, MAR 27 CLOSE

What to Watch MONDAY CATALYSTS

Fed Chair Powell speaks at 10:30 ET — the most important Fedspeak since the March 18 hold. He faces an impossible question: acknowledge the Dow correction and oil-driven growth risk (dovish), or maintain the hawkish inflation stance with Brent above $110 (hawkish). Any hint of rate cut consideration would send equities surging; doubling down on “higher for longer” likely deepens the correction.

The BCB Focus Survey at 07:25 BRT is the pre-open domestic read. After last week’s IPCA-15 at 3.74%, the survey should confirm anchored expectations — but with Brent back above $110, any uptick in IPCA 2026 forecasts toward 4.5% would be a warning sign. German CPI at 08:00 ET (cons: 1.1% MoM) follows Spain’s 3.6% shock and will shape ECB expectations.

EU Business and Consumer Surveys at 05:00 ET (cons: 96.5, prev: 98.3) will show whether European confidence is cracking under the energy shock. Dallas Fed Manufacturing at 10:30 ET captures the oil patch’s response to $100+ crude. China Manufacturing PMI overnight (cons: 50.2, prev: 49.0) sets the Asia tone. Q1 ends tomorrow — expect window-dressing flows.

Ibovespa Setup TECHNICAL LEVELS

The Ibovespa closed at 181,556.76 (−0.64%). RSI fell to 49.39 (MA: 47.88) — slipping just below 50 after three days above it. The MACD histogram narrowed to 35.49 (MACD: −116.64, signal: −152.13), still positive but fading. The index ended the week at 181,557 vs. 176,219 a week earlier — a net gain of 3.0%.

Resistance: 181,977 (upper SMA cluster) → 182,276 (upper Bollinger zone) → 183,831 (mid-March swing) → 185,424 (Wednesday’s high).

Support: 181,188 (intermediate SMA) → 180,720 (50-day area) → 177,194 (lower SMA) → 175,871 (lower Bollinger) → 154,904 (200-day).

The RSI dipping below 50 is a yellow flag but not a breakdown — it reflects two days of pullback after a five-day, 5.2% surge. If Powell’s tone is less hawkish than expected, the index could reclaim 50 RSI and test 182,000+ immediately. If he’s hawkish and oil stays above $110, the test of the 50-day SMA at ~180,720 becomes likely.

Copom Watch SELIC AT 14.75% · NEXT MEETING: MAY 6-7

The May Copom decision hinges on two variables: where Brent is trading and whether inflation expectations remain anchored. Last week’s IPCA-15 at 3.74% was encouraging, and the BCB Inflation Report showed manageable scenarios. But with Brent back above $112, the war-driven inflation pass-through risk is re-escalating.

Today’s Focus Survey will reveal whether the market has begun to price higher IPCA for 2026. If expectations hold near 4.10%, the May 25 bps cut to 14.50% remains the base case. If they tick toward 4.30-4.50%, the DI curve reprices and rate-sensitive stocks give back gains. Powell’s speech matters here too — a hawkish Fed constrains the BCB’s room to deviate from global policy.

Economic Calendar MONDAY, MAR 30

Latin America Markets FRIDAY CLOSE

Friday’s LatAm session was split. Argentina’s MERVAL (+0.88%) and Chile’s IPSA (+0.19%) managed gains, while Brazil (−0.64%), Mexico (−0.56%) and Colombia (−0.93%) dipped. The key takeaway: all five LatAm indices dramatically outperformed the S&P 500’s −1.67% and the Dow’s −1.73%. The region’s average decline of ~0.2% vs. Wall Street’s ~1.8% is the widest spread of the war.

As tracked in our Ibovespa market reports, all LatAm RSI readings remain in the 44-53 neutral zone — no index is overbought or oversold. This balanced positioning suggests the region can absorb further US weakness without panic selling.

Commodities & FX KEY MOVES

Brent surged above $112 on Friday, its highest close since the Monday before Trump’s 5-day pause. Hormuz incidents continued with no tanker traffic resuming. Trump extended the deadline to April 6 but also deployed more troops, sending mixed signals. Carnival cut its FY earnings guidance citing $90+ Brent assumptions through Q2.

Gold rose 0.79% to $4,529 and silver gained 1.06% to $70.52. Both precious metals posted weekly gains despite the broader commodity carnage. Gold’s RSI at 39.00 (MA: 38.09) is stabilizing at depressed levels, suggesting the worst of the forced liquidation is over. The safe-haven bid is returning as the Dow enters correction.

USD/BRL was essentially flat at R$5.24. The real’s stability while the DXY strengthened and global risk assets crashed is remarkable — the 14.75% carry and the IPCA-15 disinflation are providing genuine support. Bitcoin fell to $67,388, underperforming risk assets as crypto struggles for a war-period narrative.

DXY rose to ~99.5 and the 10-year yield hit 4.46% — the highest since July. The Schwab note that average S&P 500 member drawdown is 17% (vs. 7% for the index) reveals the true depth of the correction beneath the surface. Tech forward P/E has collapsed from 31.7 to 20.2 in five months — the fastest multiple compression since 2022.

Risk Map BULL vs BEAR

Positioning BOTTOM LINE