Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for Thursday, August 13, 2026
Key Facts
- Copom has already moved cutting the Selic, Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, by 25 basis points to 14.00% on 5 August, its fourth consecutive cut. Attention now turns to September
- Retail sales data lands at 9:00 BRT and economists expect a firm annual reading, which could shift views on domestic demand and inflation
- Business confidence is also due at 11:00 BRT with a forecast of 44.8, a small improvement that would echo the resilience in services activity
- Vale’s Salobo copper plan is in focus after the miner said it had simplified the project’s scope and cut its investment estimate to roughly US$215 million
- The real is steady to slightly softer with USD/BRL near its recent range as investors wait for the data and the central-bank signals
Today’s Focus
Thursday’s B3 session is built around two domestic anchors: the retail sales number at 9 am and the Copom wager that has been quietly pulling rates expectations. The central bank’s next meeting is the real driver of positioning, but today’s data could nudge the odds and the real.
Economists see June retail sales rising about 0.3% from a year earlier, after 0.4% in May. On the month, consensus is 0.3% against 0.1% previously. A print near those forecasts would support the view that Brazilian consumers are still spending, keeping the Copom cautious about cutting the Selic too quickly.
The board shows the Ibovespa is not expensive relative to its 52-week high, leaving room for domestic names to run if the numbers land well. Vale is the main corporate story after its Salobo copper project update, a reminder that the metals complex is still a live theme in Brazil.
The indicated open will lean on the data. If retail sales beat, watch for banks and consumer stocks to set the tone; if it misses, the real could drift and the Copom cut bets for August might firm up.
What matters today. Whether today’s retail sales and business confidence argue for another cut at the September Copom meeting, or for a pause.
Today’s Economic Events
| Instrument | Level | Session |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 167,491 | -0.23% |
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,748 | +0.26% |
| USD/BRL | 5.1639 | +0.69% |
Ibovespa — Source: RT close, 2026-08-12. Figures rendered directly from the feed.
01 The setup in one read
Brazil’s B3 market opens Thursday with a domestic data double-header: retail sales at 9 am and industrial confidence later in the morning. Both feed directly into the Copom’s thinking, and that is where the real action sits.
The Copom — Brazil’s monetary-policy committee — has kept the Selic, the benchmark interest rate, high to tame inflation. Traders are now weighing whether the next move is a cut or another hold, and today’s demand numbers will sharpen that debate.
Vale, one of Brazil’s biggest miners, has also given the market something to chew on. Its Salobo copper complex in Pará will be simpler and cheaper than first planned, with the investment estimate now around US$215 million.
The external backdrop is calm but not helpful: US markets are near their highs and the dollar index is roughly unchanged, so Brazil will have to make its own weather today.
The evidence is mixed: the real has held near recent levels and the Brazilian board has decoupled modestly from Wall Street, but there is no fresh pre-market indication to confirm a clear direction. The retail sales forecast is strong, so any disappointment could hit consumer names and soften the real. The variable to watch is the 9:00 BRT retail sales print.
02 Where Brazil is set to open
| Instrument | Last close | Indicated | Watch today |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | The board shows the main index little changed at the last close | — | Retail sales at 9:00 BRT; Vale’s copper update |
| USD/BRL | The board shows the real steady to slightly softer | — | Retail sales and Copom pricing |
| VALE3 | The board shows the stock in focus after Salobo news | — | Copper project scope and investment guidance |
| Consumer names | The board shows a mixed sector backdrop | — | Retail sales print; any demand surprise |
The board shows the Ibovespa is still well below its 52-week high, which gives domestic names room to rally on a good data day. The real is likewise not stretched, so a strong retail print could pull USD/BRL back toward the lower end of its recent range.
Vale is the single stock to watch on the corporate side. The Salobo update reduces execution risk and frees up capital, which is the kind of news that can lift a heavy industrial name early. Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
IBOV
192,114.55
+2.63%
+21.85%
187,197.46
168,310
167,142
—
USD/BRL
5.16
+0.01%
-5.13%
5.16
5.18
5.14
—
EUR/BRL
5.95
+1.01%
-5.83%
5.89
5.98
5.94
—
SELIC
14.00%
—
—
—
—
—
BRENT
88.88
-0.03%
+34.42%
88.91
90.07
88.12
29,713
WTI
83.11
-0.11%
+31.57%
83.20
84.35
82.40
166,848
IRON ORE
161.91
—
+58.10%
161.91
161.91
1
GOLD
4,461
+1.78%
+33.20%
4,383
4,503
4,421
139,824
SILVER
65.59
+1.26%
+73.05%
64.77
66.98
64.81
46,406
LITHIUM
75.20
+1.47%
+62.95%
74.11
75.80
75.08
89,275
SOY
1,184
+3.20%
+17.05%
1,148
1,199
1,168
163,179
CORN
480.50
+10.02%
+29.34%
436.75
480.75
459.50
341,248
WHEAT
655.00
+3.93%
+29.70%
630.25
657.75
631.50
128,793
COFFEE
317.25
-5.51%
+0.67%
335.75
321.20
313.55
21,747
SUGAR
16.43
-1.79%
-3.01%
16.73
17.11
16.22
171,992
ORANGE JUICE
138.55
-0.47%
-45.38%
139.20
141.05
137.50
703
COTTON
85.03
+2.33%
+26.78%
83.09
82.90
81.96
16,546
BEEF
223.60
-3.93%
-5.18%
232.75
226.40
223.00
16,126
CATTLE
339.10
-3.16%
-1.82%
350.17
345.50
338.60
10,164
COCOA
5,719
+3.18%
-34.96%
5,543
5,779
5,574
26,773
PETR4
41.64
-0.05%
+35.19%
41.66
41.97
41.15
41,499,400
VALE3
72.97
+0.83%
+30.75%
72.37
73.54
72.66
17,658,000
SUZB3
41.33
+2.35%
-23.55%
40.38
41.48
40.35
3,914,900
KLABIN
17.69
+0.80%
-2.95%
17.55
17.74
17.48
2,057,400
SLCE3
13.34
+0.30%
-12.25%
13.30
13.42
13.20
1,454,200
ABEV3
14.89
-0.80%
+21.91%
15.01
15.07
14.81
16,453,100
ITUB4
38.60
-1.03%
+4.57%
39.00
39.34
38.39
29,487,800
BBDC4
16.85
+0.36%
+3.50%
16.79
16.90
16.67
19,416,900
BBAS3
19.37
+0.47%
+0.73%
19.28
19.44
19.16
11,069,200
B3SA3
14.26
-0.21%
+12.73%
14.29
14.47
14.11
33,037,800
WEGE3
47.59
+0.49%
+29.99%
47.36
48.08
47.36
3,364,600
PRIO3
59.14
-0.19%
+50.67%
59.25
59.81
58.74
3,325,600
RENT3
34.68
-0.09%
+0.84%
34.71
34.96
34.35
7,979,100
AZZA3
15.89
-2.63%
-53.76%
16.32
16.42
15.82
1,330,300
CSNA3
4.30
+0.47%
-42.65%
4.28
4.41
4.26
10,076,100
GGBR4
24.69
+2.19%
+51.38%
24.16
24.85
24.18
7,047,600
ENEV3
24.21
-1.38%
+70.49%
24.55
24.64
23.99
9,297,000
LREN3
11.87
-1.33%
-28.65%
12.03
12.17
11.83
9,683,300
03 On the B3 radar today — retail sales and Vale
| Item | When | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales (monthly) | 9:00 BRT | Consensus 2.4%, prior 0.4%; a big swing that could move Copom cut odds for September |
| Retail Sales (annual) | 9:00 BRT | Consensus 0.3%, prior 0.1%; confirms the strength of the Brazilian consumer |
| Business Confidence | 11:00 BRT | Consensus 44.8, prior 44.4; a lead for industrial demand and capex |
| Vale Salobo update | Pre-market | Vale simplified the copper project, cutting investment to about US$215 million |
The retail sales number is the morning’s clearing event. An annual rise of 2.4% would be the strongest in some time and would argue against a further near-term Selic cut, keeping the real supported and consumer stocks bid.
Business confidence arriving at 11:00 BRT will stitch together the industrial side of the story. If it holds near 44.8, the Copom has one more reason to stay patient.
04 Copom and the macro backdrop
September’s Copom meeting is the gravitational centre of Brazilian trading right now, with the August cut already delivered. The Selic stands at 14.00% after four consecutive cuts since March. The market is split on whether September brings a fifth cut or a pause.
Today’s data matters because it lands inside that debate. Retail sales at 2.4% year-on-year would suggest the economy can absorb tighter money, while a weak print would hand the doves an argument for a cut.
The international mood is neutral-to-supportive. US equities are near record highs and the dollar index is calm, so there is no external shock forcing the Copom’s hand.
The real will trade off this domestic script. If the data beat and the market trims its cut expectations, USD/BRL could drift lower; if the numbers disappoint, the real may soften and rate-cut bets will build.
05 Corporate stories to watch today
Vale’s Salobo copper complex is the standout corporate item. The company said it had revised and simplified the project’s scope, cutting the investment estimate to around US$215 million.
That is a meaningful reduction and suggests Vale is prioritising capital discipline in its base-metals division. Copper remains a strategic metal for electric vehicles and grids, so any progress on Salobo keeps Vale in the global metals conversation.
Elsewhere, there is no heavy domestic earnings flow today, which puts the spotlight back on macro data and sector rotation. Consumer and retail names will be most sensitive to the 9:00 BRT release.
Banks could also react to the data and to any shift in rate expectations, since lower Selic assumptions tend to squeeze lending margins and lift long-duration equity names.
06 The levels to watch at the open
The board shows the Ibovespa little changed at the last close and still far from its 52-week high, so the index has room to move on a real catalyst. A strong retail print could test the top of the recent range, while a weak one could keep the index pinned lower.
USD/BRL is the other barometer. The real is steady to slightly softer, and the 9:00 BRT data could set its direction for the rest of the session.
The market’s tolerance for a break of recent levels will be tested by how tightly the retail sales number lands against the 2.4% consensus. The wider the miss, the sharper the move in both the real and consumer stocks.
The variable to watch is whether today’s data shifts the Copom cut odds for September. That single probability is the hinge for the index, the currency and the whole B3 session.
07 What to watch
- Retail sales at 9:00 BRT: The 2.4% annual forecast is a strong reading; any miss could hit consumer stocks and firm up Selic cut bets
- Copom September odds: Rate futures and swap pricing will show if today’s data moves the chance of a cut at the next meeting
- Vale Salobo project: The approved US$215 million Salobo expansion could support VALE3 early and lift the mining complex
- USD/BRL reaction: A strong data day could pull the real firmer; a weak print could push the currency toward the top of its range
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Copom?
The Copom is Brazil’s monetary-policy committee. It meets regularly to set the Selic, the central bank’s benchmark interest rate.
Why does retail sales matter for B3?
Retail sales measure Brazilian consumer spending. A strong number reduces the chance of an interest-rate cut, which affects the real and stock prices.
What did Vale announce about Salobo?
Vale said it had simplified the Salobo copper project in Pará and cut its investment estimate to about US$215 million.
When is Brazil’s retail sales data released?
The monthly retail sales figure is due at 9:00 BRT on Thursday, 13 August 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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