Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for October 14, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets face a dynamic day driven by domestic policy shifts and global economic signals.
President Lula’s weakest congressional win rate since 1988 signals challenges for fiscal reforms, with a stronger Congress potentially constraining his agenda, impacting investor confidence in fiscal credibility.
Airbus’s strategic bet on Brazil as Latin America’s aviation hub, with plans to expand jet deliveries and maintenance facilities, underscores the country’s growing role in global aviation, boosting related sectors.
Meanwhile, Petrobras faces tough choices in its 2026–2030 plan as Brent crude slips toward $60, pressuring its investment strategy and energy stocks.
Gol Linhas Aéreas’ exit from Brazil’s stock market signals broader corporate restructuring trends, potentially cooling investor sentiment in the airline sector despite aviation growth.
Today’s agenda includes Brazil’s Service Sector Growth data at 08:00 AM BRT, critical for gauging consumption trends amid fiscal pressures from Lula’s reforms.
Globally, U.S. Fed Chair Powell’s speech at 12:20 PM BRT and IMF Meetings at 06:00 AM BRT will shape expectations for U.S. rate cuts, influencing USD/BRL and Brazil’s high-yield appeal with the Selic rate at 15%.
German ZEW Economic Sentiment at 05:00 AM BRT and Chinese monetary data (M2, loans) will guide commodity demand, impacting Vale and Petrobras.
These events matter for Brazil’s fiscal stability, export competitiveness, and capital inflows, as markets navigate global trade dynamics and domestic policy risks.
Economic Agenda for October 14, 2025
Brazil (10th Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$2.125 trillion)
- 08:00 AM BRT – Service Sector Growth (MoM) (Aug): Actual: TBD, Consensus: TBD, Previous: 0.3%.
- 08:00 AM BRT – Service Sector Growth (YoY) (Aug): Actual: TBD, Consensus: TBD, Previous: 2.8%.
Implication: Stronger service sector data could signal resilience in consumption, supporting retail and banks like Nubank, especially with low unemployment (5.6%) and Airbus’s aviation investments boosting related services.
Weakness may heighten fiscal concerns from Lula’s reform costs, pressuring the Selic hold at 15% and export-driven firms like JBS.
United States (Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$30.50 trillion)
- 06:00 AM BRT – IMF Meetings: Actual: TBD, Consensus: TBD, Previous: TBD.
Implication: Discussions on global growth could influence risk sentiment, impacting USD/BRL (near 5.46) and Brazil’s high-yield appeal as per UBS’s outlook, especially for commodity exporters like Vale. - 06:00 AM BRT – NFIB Small Business Optimism (Sep): Actual: TBD, Consensus: 100.6, Previous: 100.8.
Implication: A drop could signal U.S. economic softening, boosting Fed cut expectations, weakening the dollar, and aiding USD/BRL stability, benefiting Brazil’s exports. - 07:00 AM BRT – Construction Spending (MoM) (Aug): Actual: TBD, Consensus: -0.1%, Previous: -0.1%.
Implication: Continued weakness may reinforce Fed easing bets, supporting Brazil’s commodity demand (Vale, Petrobras) amid Brent’s slide to $60. - 07:00 AM BRT – Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Aug): Actual: TBD, Consensus: TBD, Previous: 1.4%.
Implication: Robust sales could counter slowdown fears, supporting U.S. growth and demand for Brazilian steel and soy (Gerdau, JBS). - 08:45 AM BRT – FOMC Member Bowman Speaks.
Implication: Hawkish tones could strengthen the dollar, pressuring USD/BRL toward 5.50, impacting export competitiveness, while dovish signals align with UBS’s rate-cut window, favoring inflows. - 12:20 PM BRT – Fed Chair Powell Speaks.
Implication: Powell’s views on inflation and labor will shape Fed cut timing, critical for USD/BRL (near 5.46) and carry trades leveraging Brazil’s 15% Selic rate. - 15:25 PM BRT – Fed Waller Speaks.
Implication: Comments on monetary policy could influence dollar strength, affecting Brazil’s export outlook and foreign inflows (R$4.8B in September). - 15:30 PM BRT – Fed Collins Speaks.
Implication: Dovish hints could weaken the dollar, supporting USD/BRL stability and Brazil’s commodity exports.
Europe (Collective GDP of Key Economies: Germany, UK, France, etc.)
- 02:00 AM BRT – German CPI (YoY) (Sep): Actual: 2.4%, Consensus: 2.4%, Previous: 2.2%.
- 02:00 AM BRT – German CPI (MoM) (Sep): Actual: 0.2%, Consensus: 0.2%, Previous: 0.1%.
- 02:00 AM BRT – German HICP (YoY) (Sep): Actual: 2.4%, Consensus: 2.4%, Previous: 2.1%.
- 02:00 AM BRT – German HICP (MoM) (Sep): Actual: 0.2%, Consensus: 0.2%, Previous: 0.1%.
Implication: Stable inflation supports ECB’s cautious stance, potentially weakening the euro and boosting Brazil’s steel and soy exports (Vale, JBS). - 05:00 AM BRT – German ZEW Current Conditions (Oct): Actual: TBD, Consensus: -75.0, Previous: -76.4.
- 05:00 AM BRT – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Oct): Actual: TBD, Consensus: 41.2, Previous: 37.3.
Implication: Improved sentiment could lift demand for Brazilian exports, benefiting Ibovespa and firms like Gerdau, especially with Airbus’s aviation push. - 05:00 AM BRT – ZEW Economic Sentiment (Oct): Actual: TBD, Consensus: 30.2, Previous: 26.1.
Implication: Stronger sentiment may steady Eurozone growth, supporting Brazil’s auto and commodity exports amid aviation sector momentum.
Other Countries
- 02:00 AM BRT – GBP Average Earnings ex Bonus (Aug): Actual: 4.7%, Consensus: 4.7%, Previous: 4.8%.
- 02:00 AM BRT – GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Aug): Actual: 5.0%, Consensus: 4.7%, Previous: 4.8%.
- 02:00 AM BRT – GBP Claimant Count Change (Sep): Actual: 25.8K, Consensus: 10.3K, Previous: -2.0K.
- 02:00 AM BRT – GBP Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Aug): Actual: 91K, Consensus: TBD, Previous: 232K.
- 02:00 AM BRT – GBP Unemployment Rate (Aug): Actual: 4.8%, Consensus: 4.7%, Previous: 4.7%.
Implication: Rising unemployment and claimant counts could soften the pound, supporting Brazil’s high-yield carry trades and FDI inflows. - 02:30 AM BRT – INR WPI Inflation (YoY) (Sep): Actual: 0.13%, Consensus: 0.50%, Previous: 0.52%.
Implication: Lower inflation may sustain India’s demand for Brazilian iron ore (CSN Mineração), supporting commodity exporters. - 05:00 AM BRT – CNY M2 Money Stock (YoY) (Sep): Actual: TBD, Consensus: 8.5%, Previous: 8.8%.
- 05:00 AM BRT – CNY New Loans (Sep): Actual: TBD, Consensus: 1,460.0B, Previous: 590.0B.
Implication: Stronger Chinese credit growth could boost iron ore and oil demand, lifting Vale and Petrobras amid Brent’s $60 pressure. - 08:30 AM BRT – CAD Building Permits (MoM) (Aug): Actual: TBD, Consensus: -0.7%, Previous: -0.1%.
Implication: Weakness could soften commodity prices, impacting Vale’s exports.
Why These Events Matter: Brazil’s Service Sector Growth (08:00 AM BRT) will test consumption strength amid fiscal risks from Lula’s weaker congressional support, critical for the Selic hold at 15%.
U.S. Fed speeches (12:20 PM BRT) and IMF Meetings (06:00 AM BRT) will guide dollar dynamics, affecting USD/BRL and Brazil’s export competitiveness.
German ZEW data and Chinese loan growth will influence commodity demand, crucial for Vale and Petrobras as Brent nears $60.
Fiscal credibility and global risk sentiment are key for sustaining foreign inflows (R$4.8B in September) and navigating Gol’s delisting and Airbus’s aviation boost.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
Brazil’s Bovespa rose 0.78% to 141,783.36 on October 13, 2025, driven by a global relief rally as U.S.–China trade tensions eased, boosting risk appetite. The Brazilian real firmed to ~5.46 per dollar, with B3 turnover at R$14.67 billion ($2.77 billion).
Improved inflation expectations (2025 at 4.72%, 2026 at 4.28%) and softer DI rates (Jan-28 at 13.415%) supported equity valuations, despite Lula’s congressional challenges.
Cyclical stocks, particularly steelmakers, surged on China’s record iron-ore imports, though protein producers lagged. Gol’s stock market exit signaled corporate caution, while Airbus’s aviation investments lifted related sectors.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
The S&P 500 gained 1.56% to 6,654.72, Nasdaq +2.21% to 22,694.61, and Dow +1.29% to 46,067.58 on October 13, 2025.
Tech and consumer discretionary led, with Broadcom up ~10% on OpenAI chip news. Softer U.S.–China trade rhetoric drove the rally, though consumer staples lagged.
The VIX eased to ~19, and WTI crude hovered at $59.6/bbl. U.S. bond markets were closed for Columbus Day, keeping rates stable.
Mexico’s Market Yesterday
Mexico’s S&P/BMV IPC rebounded 0.76% to 62,398.25 on October 13, 2025, with the peso firming to ~18.35 per dollar as the Dollar Index softened.
The rally followed global risk-on sentiment, with oil’s bounce aiding sentiment despite Banxico’s cautious stance. Local leaders included Orbia Advance (+3.2%), while Volaris lagged (-2.1%). USD/MXN held a tight range (18.30–18.50), with IPC support at 61,900.
Argentina’s Market Yesterday
Argentina’s S&P Merval extended gains, up 0.9% to ~1.781 million on October 13, 2025. The peso remained stable (official ~1,400/1,450, blue 1,440/1,460) via central bank interventions.
Glencore’s copper push supported sentiment, though dollar scarcity persists. Ternium (+4.1%) led, while Supervielle (-2.8%) lagged. USD/ARS held ~1,389–1,402, with Merval eyeing resistance at 1.80–1.85M.
Colombia’s Market Yesterday
Colombia’s COLCAP edged up 0.4% to ~1,870 on October 13, 2025, with the peso steady at ~3,880 per dollar, supported by a coffee export surge and oil’s bounce.
Mineros (+2.8%) outperformed, while Argos (-1.9%) lagged. USD/COP remained below 3,900, with coffee exports cushioning fiscal caution.
Chile’s Market Yesterday
Chile’s S&P CLX IPSA rose 0.6% to ~8,950 on October 13, 2025, with the peso at ~958 per dollar as the Dollar Index eased.
Copper prices remained range-bound, limiting gains. Itau (+2.1%) led, while Enel (-2.3%) lagged. USD/CLP showed upside bias (957–961), with IPSA struggling at 9,000 resistance.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The Brazilian real held near 5.46 per dollar on October 13, 2025, supported by softer U.S.–China trade rhetoric and improved inflation expectations (2025 at 4.72%).
USD/BRL stayed below the 200-day average (~5.45), with RSI neutral in the low-40s. Resistance lies at 5.50/5.55, support at 5.43/5.40. A dovish Fed outlook could push USD/BRL lower, aiding exports, though Lula’s fiscal challenges and Gol’s delisting add volatility.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin steadied near $118,000 on October 13, 2025, after tariff-driven ETF outflows paused. Ethereum rose 1.8% to ~$4,070, Solana +1.5% to ~$202, and XRP +1.2% to ~$2.84.
Brazil’s fintech adoption remains cautious amid Selic at 15% and Petrobras’s Brent-linked pressures, with U.S. data and trade sentiment driving crypto volatility.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil’s commodity-driven economy benefits from global trade de-escalation, with Selic at 15% attracting yield-seeking capital (R$4.8B foreign inflows in September).
However, manufacturing PMI weakness (46.5) and Lula’s congressional struggles signal fiscal risks, potentially cooling industrial activity. Airbus’s aviation hub plans bolster transport and services, while Petrobras’s 2026–2030 plan faces pressure from Brent at $60.
Gol’s stock market exit reflects corporate restructuring, tempering airline sector optimism. Today’s Service Sector Growth data (08:00 AM BRT) and U.S. Fed speeches will shape energy and export outlooks, with Chinese loan data impacting Vale’s iron ore prospects.
Key Developments
Airbus’s Aviation Push: Airbus aims to make Brazil Latin America’s aviation engine, expanding jet deliveries and maintenance, boosting related stocks and services.
Petrobras’s Strategic Shift: Petrobras’s 2026–2030 plan faces tough choices as Brent nears $60, potentially capping investment and impacting energy stocks.
Gol’s Delisting: Gol’s exit from B3 signals restructuring, reflecting challenges in the airline sector despite aviation growth.
Lula’s Congressional Hurdles: Lula’s weakest win rate since 1988 strengthens Congress, risking fiscal reform delays and investor caution.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+0.90%
167,830.27
+0.90%
63,999.26
+0.10%
11,241.32
+0.49%
2,874,493
+0.00%
2,453.87
-0.30%
57,612.45
+1.33%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 167,830.27 | +0.90% | +21.85% | 166,334.86 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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