Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for November 18, 2024
As trading commences on Monday, November 18, 2024, investors in Brazil are gearing up for a day filled with key economic indicators and strategic announcements that could influence both domestic and international markets.
Today’s agenda includes the release of the IPC-S and the Focus Bulletin at 8:25 AM, significant trade balance data from the Eurozone at 7:00 AM, and the United States will unveil its Net Long-Term Transactions at 6:00 PM. Additionally, Brazil’s currency performance remains under scrutiny amidst global economic shifts.
The IPC-S (Indice de Preços ao Consumidor – Seminário) will offer a snapshot of consumer price changes, directly impacting monetary policy decisions. The Focus Bulletin will shed light on market expectations regarding interest rates and economic growth.
Eurozone’s Trade Balance data will highlight the region’s export-import dynamics, influencing global trade relations and the Brazilian Real (BRL). Meanwhile, the US Net Long-Term Transactions report will reveal the flow of long-term investments, affecting currency valuations and emerging market investments, including Brazil.
Economic Calendar for Monday, November 18
Brazil
- IPC-S
- 8:25 AM – Focus Bulletin
Eurozone
- 7:00 AM – Trade Balance
United States
- 6:00 PM – Net Long-Term Transactions
Mexico
- Holiday – Revolution Day
Argentina
- Holiday – National Sovereignty and Children’s Day
Brazil’s Market Performance on Friday
Brazilian markets were closed on Friday, November 15th, for Republic Day. However, international markets saw significant movements. The BRL has hit R$5.79, struggling to keep pace with the strengthening U.S. dollar.
U.S. Markets on Friday
U.S. stocks experienced their worst losses since Election Day, with the S&P 500 dropping 1.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.7%, and the Nasdaq composite declining 2.2%.
This downturn was partly driven by Moderna and other vaccine makers following President-elect Trump’s appointment of an anti-vaccine activist as health secretary. Treasury yields fluctuated after stronger-than-expected economic reports
Market Indices on Friday:
- S&P 500 fell 78.55 points, or 1.3%, to 5,870.62.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 305.87 points, or 0.7%, to 43,444.99.
- Nasdaq composite fell 427.53 points, or 2.2%, to 18,680.12.
- Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 33.10 points, or 1.4%, to 2,303.84.
Commodity Markets
Oil Prices Slide Below $73
A supply glut combined with weak demand has pushed oil prices downward, impacting Brazil’s export revenues. However, Petrobras securing fourth place among global oil giants in Q3 2024 signals strong operational performance despite market challenges.
Gold’s Reality Check: Trump’s Victory Sparks Market Upheaval
Gold prices took their biggest hit in three years this week. The precious metal dropped over 4% despite Friday’s minor recovery to $2,571.99 per ounce.
Trump Win Propels Dollar to Yearly High, Rattles Markets
Trump’s unexpected election victory triggered this market shakeup, forcing investors to reconsider their positions. The story behind these numbers reveals a shifting economic landscape.
Emerging Market Dynamics
Emerging market equities have seen the largest outflow since 2020, as investors seek safer assets amid global uncertainty. This trend puts additional pressure on Brazilian stocks and could lead to increased capital flight if not managed effectively.
Cryptocurrency Activity
Bitcoin has rebounded past $90,000, driven by post-election market shifts and renewed investor interest in digital assets as alternative investments.
Corporate Highlights
Petrobras Secures Fourth Place Among Global Oil Giants in Q3 2024
Petrobras has demonstrated robust performance, securing its position among the top global oil companies despite fluctuating oil prices. This achievement underscores the company’s strategic initiatives and operational efficiency in a competitive market.
GetNinjas Faces Challenges in Q3 2024
The leading online services marketplace, GetNinjas, reported a decline in profits for Q3 2024, attributed to increased investments in technology and market expansion. While profitability has decreased, these strategic moves are aimed at long-term growth and market penetration.
Casas Bahia’s Q3 Physical Stores Shine, Online Sales Struggle
Traditional retail giant Casas Bahia reported strong performance in its physical stores during Q3 2024. However, online sales have struggled, highlighting challenges in the e-commerce segment and the need for digital transformation strategies to compete effectively in the online marketplace.
Outlook
Markets are expected to remain cautious as investors digest the outcomes of the G20 Leaders’ Summit. The positive economic activity in Brazil, as indicated by recent data, suggests robust growth. However, uncertainty remains due to global economic conditions and potential shifts in monetary policy.
The investor landscape is expected to remain sensitive to the interplay between global economic indicators and local economic data. Investors will closely monitor the IPC-S and Focus Bulletin releases for insights into inflation trends and market expectations.
Additionally, Eurozone’s Trade Balance and the U.S. Net Long-Term Transactions will provide further clarity on international economic health and capital flows affecting Brazil.
Key factors to watch today include:
- Inflation Indicators: The IPC-S will shed light on consumer price movements, directly impacting monetary policy and interest rate decisions.
- Trade Dynamics: Eurozone’s Trade Balance will influence Brazil’s export strategies and currency valuation.
- Long-Term Investments: U.S. Net Long-Term Transactions will affect capital inflows and investor confidence in emerging markets.
- Currency Stability: The BRL’s performance against the dollar will continue to be a focal point, influencing import costs and inflation.
- Corporate Performance: Ongoing earnings reports from major Brazilian corporations will provide insights into sector-specific health and investment opportunities.
Note: All times are in Brasília Time (BRT)
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-1.52%
174,041.95
-1.52%
66,247.47
-1.56%
10,950.74
+0.31%
3,283,854
-1.07%
2,274.53
-0.38%
58,287.01
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 174,041.95 | -1.52% | +30.07% | 176,723.62 | 176,720 | 174,042 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.08 | -0.18% | -8.00% | 5.08 | 5.09 | 5.05 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.78 | +0.08% | -10.91% | 5.78 | 5.80 | 5.75 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 98.38 | -2.29% | +42.21% | 100.69 | 101.16 | 95.14 | 29,916 |
| WTI | 90.47 | -1.87% | +37.01% | 92.19 | 92.83 | 87.68 | 336,373 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +64.24% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,056 | +0.22% | +20.31% | 4,047 | 4,085 | 4,024 | 112,402 |
| SILVER | 58.49 | +1.20% | +49.89% | 57.80 | 59.29 | 57.36 | 26,053 |
| LITHIUM | 67.81 | -1.75% | +51.94% | 69.02 | 68.69 | 67.73 | 177,410 |
| SOY | 1,253 | +1.21% | +24.72% | 1,238 | 1,257 | 1,238 | 166,916 |
| CORN | 487.25 | +5.01% | +21.28% | 464.00 | 492.00 | 479.25 | 257,469 |
| WHEAT | 679.00 | -2.48% | +25.39% | 696.25 | 711.25 | 659.50 | 117,726 |
| COFFEE | 314.20 | +1.55% | +3.07% | 309.40 | 318.55 | 306.40 | 14,168 |
| SUGAR | 14.76 | +0.48% | -10.92% | 14.69 | 14.79 | 14.54 | 45,966 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 142.65 | -2.83% | -57.91% | 146.80 | 146.15 | 141.50 | 345 |
| COTTON | 80.00 | +0.20% | +18.80% | 79.84 | 81.75 | 79.75 | 11,312 |
| BEEF | 222.58 | -1.25% | -1.43% | 225.40 | 224.13 | 220.78 | 19,283 |
| CATTLE | 342.05 | -0.50% | +4.00% | 343.77 | 345.48 | 337.25 | 9,940 |
| COCOA | 5,331 | +0.57% | -34.38% | 5,301 | 5,438 | 5,227 | 17,604 |
| PETR4 | 42.21 | -1.72% | +32.15% | 42.95 | 42.91 | 42.15 | 29,107,700 |
| VALE3 | 75.24 | -0.58% | +33.10% | 75.68 | 75.53 | 74.84 | 8,619,900 |
| SUZB3 | 41.84 | -1.39% | -18.76% | 42.43 | 42.25 | 41.63 | 3,639,400 |
| KLABIN | 17.52 | -0.79% | -5.27% | 17.66 | 17.59 | 17.32 | 3,680,600 |
| SLCE3 | 13.64 | -0.94% | -14.51% | 13.77 | 13.80 | 13.63 | 1,432,500 |
| ABEV3 | 15.64 | -1.76% | +15.85% | 15.92 | 15.90 | 15.61 | 15,223,800 |
| ITUB4 | 42.10 | -1.08% | +23.68% | 42.56 | 42.45 | 42.04 | 10,431,800 |
| BBDC4 | 18.48 | -1.28% | +17.86% | 18.72 | 18.64 | 18.42 | 13,961,200 |
| BBAS3 | 20.35 | -2.77% | +1.40% | 20.93 | 20.82 | 20.35 | 14,376,600 |
| B3SA3 | 15.44 | -1.34% | +17.68% | 15.65 | 15.67 | 15.43 | 35,146,900 |
| WEGE3 | 45.99 | +0.70% | +26.94% | 45.67 | 46.19 | 44.94 | 7,718,600 |
| PRIO3 | 58.82 | -2.84% | +39.05% | 60.54 | 60.27 | 58.46 | 5,375,200 |
| RENT3 | 36.89 | -0.67% | +2.56% | 37.14 | 37.38 | 36.59 | 4,733,700 |
| AZZA3 | 16.65 | -2.35% | -54.40% | 17.05 | 17.17 | 16.65 | 1,511,900 |
| CSNA3 | 5.36 | +1.13% | -37.31% | 5.30 | 5.45 | 5.24 | 8,140,000 |
| GGBR4 | 24.26 | +0.83% | +40.39% | 24.06 | 24.45 | 23.82 | 5,543,500 |
| ENEV3 | 24.90 | -3.11% | +79.65% | 25.70 | 25.58 | 24.87 | 4,494,900 |
| LREN3 | 13.27 | -0.75% | -22.31% | 13.37 | 13.49 | 13.18 | 7,803,700 |
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