Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for November 11, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets open today extending an 11th straight record close for the Ibovespa, buoyed by global risk appetite and a softer dollar amid U.S. shutdown progress.
A transformative new river link now gives Manaus a direct Pacific gateway, slashing over a week off sailing times to Asia via dredged Alto Solimões channels, tri-border road legs, and ports like Peru’s Chancay—boosting agribusiness, bio-economy exports, and factory supply chains while creating jobs and cutting logistics costs under a R$3.8 billion integration plan.
Yesterday’s BCB Focus report kept 2025 inflation forecasts near 4.55%, reinforcing contained expectations and high-carry appeal with Selic steady at 15%.
Today’s key Brazilian prints—06:00 AM BRT Copom minutes and 07:00 AM BRT October CPI (cons. MoM 0.16%, YoY 4.75%)—matter because dovish signals or a soft inflation read re-anchor cooling expectations, fueling early-2026 cut bets and Ibovespa momentum; any hawkish tilt prolongs 15% Selic pain and caps BRL below 5.25.
Key global prints steer EM flows:
- 06:00 AM BRT NFIB optimism (cons. 98.5)
- 05:00 AM BRT German ZEW sentiment (cons. 41.0)
- All day Canada holiday (Armistice Day)
These matter because upbeat U.S. small-business confidence or EZ sentiment revival supports risk-on spill into Petrobras/Vale; Canadian closure curbs CAD liquidity, indirectly lifting BRL carry amid dollar pause.
Economic Agenda for November 11, 2025
Brazil
- 06:00 AM BRT – BCB Copom Meeting Minutes
- 07:00 AM BRT – CPI (MoM) (Oct) Cons: 0.16% Prev: 0.48%
- 07:00 AM BRT – CPI (YoY) (Oct) Cons: 4.75% Prev: 5.17%
Implication: Soft print + dovish minutes = cut bets, equity bid, BRL support; hot read = prolonged Selic, dollar spikes.
Mexico
- 07:00 AM BRT – Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) Cons: 0.0% Prev: –0.3%
- 07:00 AM BRT – Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep) Prev: –3.6%
Implication: Weak output drags near-shoring narrative, peso spill pressures BRL carry.
United States
- 06:00 AM BRT – NFIB Small Business Optimism (Oct) Cons: 98.5 Prev: 98.8
- 06:00 AM BRT – Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Aug) Prev: –0.2%
Implication: Firm confidence + inventory build = dollar firmness, EM pause.
Europe
- 05:00 AM BRT – German ZEW Current Conditions (Nov) Cons: –77.5 Prev: –80.0
- 05:00 AM BRT – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov) Cons: 41.0 Prev: 39.3
- 03:20 AM BRT – ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Implication: Improved ZEW curbs commodity drag; Lagarde tone sets EUR path, indirect oil spill.
Why These Events Matter: Brazil’s CPI and Copom minutes are the local anchors—cool numbers keep the record streak alive and foreign inflows bid.
Global sentiment gauges set the dollar tempo; upside surprises prolong Selic discipline, while misses fuel EM revival and Ibovespa fuel.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
São Paulo’s B3 notched an 11th straight record and a 14th day of gains, propelled by global risk appetite and a softer dollar that eased pressure on local rates.
The Ibovespa closed at 155,257 (+0.77%) with turnover around R$22.5 billion, while the real firmed to roughly 5.30 per dollar. Petrobras and Vale advanced alongside stronger oil and steady iron-ore sentiment.
Retail rallied on the pullback in long-dated DI rates; Raízen rose after agreeing to sell the Continental sugar-energy mill for R$750 million.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. stock markets closed sharply higher on Monday, November 10, 2025, led by a strong rebound in Big Tech and AI-related stocks.
The S&P 500 rose 1.5%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.3%, its best day since May.
Nvidia was the top performer. The rally followed signs of progress in ending the record-long U.S. government shutdown. YTD: S&P +16.2%, Nasdaq +21.8%.
Mexico’s Market Yesterday
The Mexican peso hovered around 18.37 per USD, extending modest strength as the dollar paused. The S&P/BMV IPC slipped roughly 0.5% to about 63,100, a brief pause after multi-week climb.
Argentina’s Market Yesterday
Argentina’s peso steadied, with official rate at 1,445 ARS/USD and blue rate at 1,425 ARS/USD (gap 20 ARS). S&P Merval extended rebound in the 2.90–2.93 million band, led by industrials and utilities (Ternium, Aluar, Edenor top gainers).
Colombia’s Market Yesterday
The Colombian peso strengthened, USD/COP around 3,750–3,760. MSCI COLCAP consolidated around 2,060–2,075 after powerful run, with Conconcreto (+16.1%) and Fabricato (+8.6%) leading.
Chile’s Market Yesterday
The Chilean peso firmed to near 937–938 per USD amid copper climb. S&P IPSA closed at 9,660 (+0.6%), notching its 55th record of the year on trade-exposed sectors and rate-cut bets.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The real strengthened to around 5.29 USD/BRL Monday, buoyed by U.S. shutdown progress easing dollar safe-haven flows, Brent near $64, and Selic at 15% reinforcing carry while Focus kept 2025 inflation near 4.55%. Charts hug lower Bollinger, oversold RSI; bias mildly bullish toward 5.25–5.22 if shutdown optimism holds.
Cryptocurrencies
Crypto slipped; Bitcoin around $104,900 (–1.4%), Ether $3,551 (–1.7%). Altcoins broadly lower (Solana –2–3%, Litecoin –4.8%), though UNI surged 26% on governance. Heavy ETF outflows eased marginally; range-bound beneath $106–108k resistance.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Corporate discipline shines—Raízen portfolio tidy, Mater Dei richer mix, M. Dias Branco scale-back for margins amid softer dollar and rate relief.
Key Developments
Raízen sells Continental mill for R$750m, preserving 73m tons crushing while cutting complexity; Q2 preview crushes 35.1m tons.
Mater Dei revenue +16.3% to R$567.9m on higher-complexity cases, though net –57.2% to R$27.5m on tax/mix.
M. Dias Branco net +73.3% to R$216.1m via volume +5.6%, price cuts for share; EBITDA R$318m, cash flow R$530m.
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-0.20%
173,371.35
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66,125.27
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10,896.87
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3,223,652
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2,298.34
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55,645.90
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 173,371.35 | -0.20% | +29.22% | 173,714.08 | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.09 | +0.04% | -8.71% | 5.09 | 5.09 | 5.08 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.82 | -0.65% | -10.25% | 5.85 | 5.82 | 5.80 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.62 | -0.67% | +28.05% | 89.22 | 89.41 | 87.88 | 5,313 |
| WTI | 82.05 | -1.42% | +22.10% | 83.23 | 83.05 | 81.39 | 37,112 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +65.48% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,071 | +1.51% | +19.66% | 4,010 | 4,088 | 4,003 | 49,150 |
| SILVER | 59.44 | +4.64% | +52.00% | 56.80 | 59.50 | 56.38 | 14,608 |
| LITHIUM | 66.92 | -2.14% | +57.46% | 68.38 | 67.75 | 66.78 | 178,132 |
| SOY | 1,226 | -0.02% | +20.76% | 1,226 | 1,230 | 1,220 | 27,419 |
| CORN | 471.00 | +4.78% | +16.66% | 449.50 | 474.25 | 469.00 | 23,408 |
| WHEAT | 671.75 | -0.33% | +23.88% | 674.00 | 678.75 | 667.25 | 11,638 |
| COFFEE | 313.70 | -6.19% | +5.53% | 334.40 | 313.80 | 306.00 | 606 |
| SUGAR | 14.91 | +0.61% | -8.92% | 14.82 | 14.92 | 14.77 | 4,359 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 146.90 | +6.30% | -55.12% | 138.20 | 148.15 | 136.65 | — |
| COTTON | 79.87 | +3.23% | +20.03% | 77.37 | 81.75 | 79.75 | 1,989 |
| BEEF | 223.30 | -0.50% | -0.85% | 224.43 | 223.53 | 219.83 | 24,937 |
| CATTLE | 346.78 | +0.24% | +5.85% | 345.95 | 347.00 | 338.30 | 11,861 |
| COCOA | 5,712 | +3.48% | -29.97% | 5,520 | 5,727 | 5,571 | 225 |
| PETR4 | 41.15 | +0.61% | +32.53% | 40.90 | 41.44 | 40.47 | 26,963,500 |
| VALE3 | 71.93 | -1.38% | +28.33% | 72.94 | 73.25 | 71.71 | 13,089,900 |
| SUZB3 | 41.89 | -0.10% | -17.86% | 41.93 | 42.03 | 41.11 | 4,464,600 |
| KLABIN | 17.48 | -0.57% | -5.84% | 17.58 | 17.86 | 17.32 | 3,179,200 |
| SLCE3 | 13.57 | +0.30% | -15.61% | 13.53 | 13.68 | 13.48 | 1,134,500 |
| ABEV3 | 15.79 | +1.02% | +17.66% | 15.63 | 15.83 | 15.58 | 24,319,200 |
| ITUB4 | 42.30 | +0.81% | +22.80% | 41.96 | 42.53 | 42.10 | 12,611,000 |
| BBDC4 | 18.41 | +0.66% | +17.41% | 18.29 | 18.51 | 18.28 | 12,802,000 |
| BBAS3 | 20.17 | -1.56% | +1.56% | 20.49 | 20.54 | 20.13 | 15,053,800 |
| B3SA3 | 15.26 | +0.39% | +16.49% | 15.20 | 15.43 | 15.14 | 16,307,500 |
| WEGE3 | 43.13 | -1.15% | +2.76% | 43.63 | 43.79 | 43.02 | 3,973,600 |
| PRIO3 | 57.69 | -0.28% | +34.92% | 57.85 | 58.72 | 57.62 | 4,922,600 |
| RENT3 | 37.49 | -1.94% | +4.66% | 38.23 | 38.38 | 37.41 | 5,725,800 |
| AZZA3 | 18.17 | -2.26% | -48.86% | 18.59 | 18.75 | 18.16 | 906,100 |
| CSNA3 | 5.07 | +0.40% | -36.55% | 5.05 | 5.12 | 5.03 | 6,881,700 |
| GGBR4 | 23.62 | -1.75% | +42.12% | 24.04 | 24.25 | 23.53 | 4,280,300 |
| ENEV3 | 25.65 | -0.12% | +85.87% | 25.68 | 25.84 | 25.47 | 6,953,200 |
| LREN3 | 13.31 | -0.82% | -23.81% | 13.42 | 13.52 | 13.28 | 6,495,400 |
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