Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for November 11, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets open today extending an 11th straight record close for the Ibovespa, buoyed by global risk appetite and a softer dollar amid U.S. shutdown progress.
A transformative new river link now gives Manaus a direct Pacific gateway, slashing over a week off sailing times to Asia via dredged Alto Solimões channels, tri-border road legs, and ports like Peru’s Chancay—boosting agribusiness, bio-economy exports, and factory supply chains while creating jobs and cutting logistics costs under a R$3.8 billion integration plan.
Yesterday’s BCB Focus report kept 2025 inflation forecasts near 4.55%, reinforcing contained expectations and high-carry appeal with Selic steady at 15%.
Today’s key Brazilian prints—06:00 AM BRT Copom minutes and 07:00 AM BRT October CPI (cons. MoM 0.16%, YoY 4.75%)—matter because dovish signals or a soft inflation read re-anchor cooling expectations, fueling early-2026 cut bets and Ibovespa momentum; any hawkish tilt prolongs 15% Selic pain and caps BRL below 5.25.
Key global prints steer EM flows:
- 06:00 AM BRT NFIB optimism (cons. 98.5)
- 05:00 AM BRT German ZEW sentiment (cons. 41.0)
- All day Canada holiday (Armistice Day)
These matter because upbeat U.S. small-business confidence or EZ sentiment revival supports risk-on spill into Petrobras/Vale; Canadian closure curbs CAD liquidity, indirectly lifting BRL carry amid dollar pause.
Economic Agenda for November 11, 2025
Brazil
- 06:00 AM BRT – BCB Copom Meeting Minutes
- 07:00 AM BRT – CPI (MoM) (Oct) Cons: 0.16% Prev: 0.48%
- 07:00 AM BRT – CPI (YoY) (Oct) Cons: 4.75% Prev: 5.17%
Implication: Soft print + dovish minutes = cut bets, equity bid, BRL support; hot read = prolonged Selic, dollar spikes.
Mexico
- 07:00 AM BRT – Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) Cons: 0.0% Prev: –0.3%
- 07:00 AM BRT – Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep) Prev: –3.6%
Implication: Weak output drags near-shoring narrative, peso spill pressures BRL carry.
United States
- 06:00 AM BRT – NFIB Small Business Optimism (Oct) Cons: 98.5 Prev: 98.8
- 06:00 AM BRT – Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Aug) Prev: –0.2%
Implication: Firm confidence + inventory build = dollar firmness, EM pause.
Europe
- 05:00 AM BRT – German ZEW Current Conditions (Nov) Cons: –77.5 Prev: –80.0
- 05:00 AM BRT – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov) Cons: 41.0 Prev: 39.3
- 03:20 AM BRT – ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Implication: Improved ZEW curbs commodity drag; Lagarde tone sets EUR path, indirect oil spill.
Why These Events Matter: Brazil’s CPI and Copom minutes are the local anchors—cool numbers keep the record streak alive and foreign inflows bid.
Global sentiment gauges set the dollar tempo; upside surprises prolong Selic discipline, while misses fuel EM revival and Ibovespa fuel.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
São Paulo’s B3 notched an 11th straight record and a 14th day of gains, propelled by global risk appetite and a softer dollar that eased pressure on local rates.
The Ibovespa closed at 155,257 (+0.77%) with turnover around R$22.5 billion, while the real firmed to roughly 5.30 per dollar. Petrobras and Vale advanced alongside stronger oil and steady iron-ore sentiment.
Retail rallied on the pullback in long-dated DI rates; Raízen rose after agreeing to sell the Continental sugar-energy mill for R$750 million.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. stock markets closed sharply higher on Monday, November 10, 2025, led by a strong rebound in Big Tech and AI-related stocks.
The S&P 500 rose 1.5%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.3%, its best day since May.
Nvidia was the top performer. The rally followed signs of progress in ending the record-long U.S. government shutdown. YTD: S&P +16.2%, Nasdaq +21.8%.
Mexico’s Market Yesterday
The Mexican peso hovered around 18.37 per USD, extending modest strength as the dollar paused. The S&P/BMV IPC slipped roughly 0.5% to about 63,100, a brief pause after multi-week climb.
Argentina’s Market Yesterday
Argentina’s peso steadied, with official rate at 1,445 ARS/USD and blue rate at 1,425 ARS/USD (gap 20 ARS). S&P Merval extended rebound in the 2.90–2.93 million band, led by industrials and utilities (Ternium, Aluar, Edenor top gainers).
Colombia’s Market Yesterday
The Colombian peso strengthened, USD/COP around 3,750–3,760. MSCI COLCAP consolidated around 2,060–2,075 after powerful run, with Conconcreto (+16.1%) and Fabricato (+8.6%) leading.
Chile’s Market Yesterday
The Chilean peso firmed to near 937–938 per USD amid copper climb. S&P IPSA closed at 9,660 (+0.6%), notching its 55th record of the year on trade-exposed sectors and rate-cut bets.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The real strengthened to around 5.29 USD/BRL Monday, buoyed by U.S. shutdown progress easing dollar safe-haven flows, Brent near $64, and Selic at 15% reinforcing carry while Focus kept 2025 inflation near 4.55%. Charts hug lower Bollinger, oversold RSI; bias mildly bullish toward 5.25–5.22 if shutdown optimism holds.
Cryptocurrencies
Crypto slipped; Bitcoin around $104,900 (–1.4%), Ether $3,551 (–1.7%). Altcoins broadly lower (Solana –2–3%, Litecoin –4.8%), though UNI surged 26% on governance. Heavy ETF outflows eased marginally; range-bound beneath $106–108k resistance.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Corporate discipline shines—Raízen portfolio tidy, Mater Dei richer mix, M. Dias Branco scale-back for margins amid softer dollar and rate relief.
Key Developments
Raízen sells Continental mill for R$750m, preserving 73m tons crushing while cutting complexity; Q2 preview crushes 35.1m tons.
Mater Dei revenue +16.3% to R$567.9m on higher-complexity cases, though net –57.2% to R$27.5m on tax/mix.
M. Dias Branco net +73.3% to R$216.1m via volume +5.6%, price cuts for share; EBITDA R$318m, cash flow R$530m.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
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+2.63%
192,114.55
+2.63%
64,531.68
+1.10%
10,916.57
+0.08%
2,767,663
+0.32%
2,515.02
-0.59%
59,751.67
+0.18%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 192,114.55 | +2.63% | +21.85% | 187,197.46 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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