Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for November 11, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets open today extending an 11th straight record close for the Ibovespa, buoyed by global risk appetite and a softer dollar amid U.S. shutdown progress.
A transformative new river link now gives Manaus a direct Pacific gateway, slashing over a week off sailing times to Asia via dredged Alto Solimões channels, tri-border road legs, and ports like Peru’s Chancay—boosting agribusiness, bio-economy exports, and factory supply chains while creating jobs and cutting logistics costs under a R$3.8 billion integration plan.
Yesterday’s BCB Focus report kept 2025 inflation forecasts near 4.55%, reinforcing contained expectations and high-carry appeal with Selic steady at 15%.
Today’s key Brazilian prints—06:00 AM BRT Copom minutes and 07:00 AM BRT October CPI (cons. MoM 0.16%, YoY 4.75%)—matter because dovish signals or a soft inflation read re-anchor cooling expectations, fueling early-2026 cut bets and Ibovespa momentum; any hawkish tilt prolongs 15% Selic pain and caps BRL below 5.25.
Key global prints steer EM flows:
- 06:00 AM BRT NFIB optimism (cons. 98.5)
- 05:00 AM BRT German ZEW sentiment (cons. 41.0)
- All day Canada holiday (Armistice Day)
These matter because upbeat U.S. small-business confidence or EZ sentiment revival supports risk-on spill into Petrobras/Vale; Canadian closure curbs CAD liquidity, indirectly lifting BRL carry amid dollar pause.
Economic Agenda for November 11, 2025
Brazil
- 06:00 AM BRT – BCB Copom Meeting Minutes
- 07:00 AM BRT – CPI (MoM) (Oct) Cons: 0.16% Prev: 0.48%
- 07:00 AM BRT – CPI (YoY) (Oct) Cons: 4.75% Prev: 5.17%
Implication: Soft print + dovish minutes = cut bets, equity bid, BRL support; hot read = prolonged Selic, dollar spikes.
Mexico
- 07:00 AM BRT – Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) Cons: 0.0% Prev: –0.3%
- 07:00 AM BRT – Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep) Prev: –3.6%
Implication: Weak output drags near-shoring narrative, peso spill pressures BRL carry.
United States
- 06:00 AM BRT – NFIB Small Business Optimism (Oct) Cons: 98.5 Prev: 98.8
- 06:00 AM BRT – Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Aug) Prev: –0.2%
Implication: Firm confidence + inventory build = dollar firmness, EM pause.
Europe
- 05:00 AM BRT – German ZEW Current Conditions (Nov) Cons: –77.5 Prev: –80.0
- 05:00 AM BRT – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov) Cons: 41.0 Prev: 39.3
- 03:20 AM BRT – ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Implication: Improved ZEW curbs commodity drag; Lagarde tone sets EUR path, indirect oil spill.
Why These Events Matter: Brazil’s CPI and Copom minutes are the local anchors—cool numbers keep the record streak alive and foreign inflows bid.
Global sentiment gauges set the dollar tempo; upside surprises prolong Selic discipline, while misses fuel EM revival and Ibovespa fuel.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
São Paulo’s B3 notched an 11th straight record and a 14th day of gains, propelled by global risk appetite and a softer dollar that eased pressure on local rates.
The Ibovespa closed at 155,257 (+0.77%) with turnover around R$22.5 billion, while the real firmed to roughly 5.30 per dollar. Petrobras and Vale advanced alongside stronger oil and steady iron-ore sentiment.
Retail rallied on the pullback in long-dated DI rates; Raízen rose after agreeing to sell the Continental sugar-energy mill for R$750 million.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. stock markets closed sharply higher on Monday, November 10, 2025, led by a strong rebound in Big Tech and AI-related stocks.
The S&P 500 rose 1.5%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.3%, its best day since May.
Nvidia was the top performer. The rally followed signs of progress in ending the record-long U.S. government shutdown. YTD: S&P +16.2%, Nasdaq +21.8%.
Mexico’s Market Yesterday
The Mexican peso hovered around 18.37 per USD, extending modest strength as the dollar paused. The S&P/BMV IPC slipped roughly 0.5% to about 63,100, a brief pause after multi-week climb.
Argentina’s Market Yesterday
Argentina’s peso steadied, with official rate at 1,445 ARS/USD and blue rate at 1,425 ARS/USD (gap 20 ARS). S&P Merval extended rebound in the 2.90–2.93 million band, led by industrials and utilities (Ternium, Aluar, Edenor top gainers).
Colombia’s Market Yesterday
The Colombian peso strengthened, USD/COP around 3,750–3,760. MSCI COLCAP consolidated around 2,060–2,075 after powerful run, with Conconcreto (+16.1%) and Fabricato (+8.6%) leading.
Chile’s Market Yesterday
The Chilean peso firmed to near 937–938 per USD amid copper climb. S&P IPSA closed at 9,660 (+0.6%), notching its 55th record of the year on trade-exposed sectors and rate-cut bets.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The real strengthened to around 5.29 USD/BRL Monday, buoyed by U.S. shutdown progress easing dollar safe-haven flows, Brent near $64, and Selic at 15% reinforcing carry while Focus kept 2025 inflation near 4.55%. Charts hug lower Bollinger, oversold RSI; bias mildly bullish toward 5.25–5.22 if shutdown optimism holds.
Cryptocurrencies
Crypto slipped; Bitcoin around $104,900 (–1.4%), Ether $3,551 (–1.7%). Altcoins broadly lower (Solana –2–3%, Litecoin –4.8%), though UNI surged 26% on governance. Heavy ETF outflows eased marginally; range-bound beneath $106–108k resistance.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Corporate discipline shines—Raízen portfolio tidy, Mater Dei richer mix, M. Dias Branco scale-back for margins amid softer dollar and rate relief.
Key Developments
Raízen sells Continental mill for R$750m, preserving 73m tons crushing while cutting complexity; Q2 preview crushes 35.1m tons.
Mater Dei revenue +16.3% to R$567.9m on higher-complexity cases, though net –57.2% to R$27.5m on tax/mix.
M. Dias Branco net +73.3% to R$216.1m via volume +5.6%, price cuts for share; EBITDA R$318m, cash flow R$530m.
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-0.73%
173,787
-0.73%
68,588
-0.40%
10,788
-1.00%
3,166,407
+2.49%
2,176.90
-0.26%
34,836.62
+0.71%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 173,787 | -0.73% | +25.45% | 175,063 | 175,064 | 172,686 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.04 | +0.13% | -11.36% | 5.04 | 5.04 | 5.04 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.88 | -0.16% | -7.92% | 5.89 | 5.91 | 5.85 | — |
| SELIC | 14.50% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 91.12 | -2.76% | +42.60% | 93.71 | 92.89 | 89.94 | 38,381 |
| WTI | 87.36 | -1.73% | +43.71% | 88.90 | 89.02 | 86.35 | 242,918 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +63.35% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,593 | +2.08% | +39.65% | 4,499 | 4,627 | 4,520 | 124,293 |
| SILVER | 75.88 | +0.30% | +130.68% | 75.64 | 76.96 | 74.82 | 34,115 |
| LITHIUM | 87.15 | -0.40% | +141.01% | 87.50 | 88.04 | 87.00 | 232,194 |
| SOY | 1,187 | -0.65% | +13.92% | 1,195 | 1,201 | 1,183 | 106,654 |
| CORN | 446.75 | -1.97% | +0.62% | 455.75 | 459.00 | 445.00 | 226,513 |
| WHEAT | 610.50 | -2.16% | +14.33% | 624.00 | 628.00 | 609.25 | 66,788 |
| COFFEE | 265.90 | -3.04% | -22.35% | 274.25 | 274.60 | 265.30 | 14,216 |
| SUGAR | 14.07 | +1.01% | -17.48% | 13.93 | 14.35 | 13.90 | 74,188 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 158.80 | -5.84% | -44.29% | 168.65 | 170.00 | 158.80 | 529 |
| COTTON | 76.25 | -0.68% | +17.20% | 76.77 | 87.36 | 84.37 | 19,727 |
| BEEF | 239.05 | -4.28% | +10.94% | 249.75 | 241.93 | 238.60 | 19,071 |
| CATTLE | 348.43 | -1.30% | +16.60% | 353.02 | 354.70 | 346.50 | 9,097 |
| COCOA | 3,901 | -4.83% | -60.16% | 4,099 | 4,175 | 3,895 | 15,620 |
| PETR4 | 42.00 | -1.20% | +34.44% | 42.51 | 42.35 | 41.82 | 73,197,700 |
| VALE3 | 82.82 | -1.36% | +54.95% | 83.96 | 84.28 | 82.38 | 20,835,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.91 | +0.53% | -17.14% | 41.69 | 41.91 | 41.03 | 13,187,900 |
| KLABIN | 16.67 | +0.00% | -11.99% | 16.67 | 16.80 | 16.54 | 8,050,600 |
| SLCE3 | 15.50 | -2.52% | -9.65% | 15.90 | 15.80 | 15.40 | 4,660,400 |
| ABEV3 | 16.32 | +0.18% | +16.07% | 16.29 | 16.46 | 16.02 | 86,415,800 |
| ITUB4 | 40.04 | +0.10% | +10.01% | 40.00 | 40.16 | 39.54 | 80,300,000 |
| BBDC4 | 17.70 | -1.12% | +10.07% | 17.90 | 17.95 | 17.70 | 59,689,600 |
| BBAS3 | 20.30 | -1.41% | -14.35% | 20.59 | 20.70 | 20.28 | 60,419,000 |
| B3SA3 | 16.50 | +0.00% | +17.02% | 16.50 | 16.64 | 16.22 | 48,044,400 |
| WEGE3 | 44.10 | +0.87% | +0.18% | 43.72 | 44.30 | 43.10 | 25,788,300 |
| PRIO3 | 62.25 | -1.14% | +55.63% | 62.97 | 62.85 | 61.03 | 10,048,600 |
| RENT3 | 42.02 | -1.87% | -3.27% | 42.82 | 42.90 | 41.35 | 21,837,900 |
| AZZA3 | 19.31 | -2.72% | -54.64% | 19.85 | 19.85 | 19.08 | 3,140,100 |
| CSNA3 | 6.71 | -1.32% | -21.79% | 6.80 | 6.91 | 6.66 | 11,743,700 |
| GGBR4 | 22.77 | -3.11% | +44.57% | 23.50 | 23.48 | 22.74 | 25,828,900 |
| ENEV3 | 25.63 | +2.52% | +79.86% | 25.00 | 25.63 | 24.67 | 14,442,300 |
| LREN3 | 14.90 | -0.67% | -17.04% | 15.00 | 15.10 | 14.80 | 8,788,100 |