Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for July 29, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets open today under continued pressure from U.S. trade tensions and domestic fiscal challenges.
The U.S.’s 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports, effective August 1, 2025, threaten R$175 billion in export revenues, with agriculture and manufacturing sectors particularly vulnerable, according to a FIEMG study.
Political uncertainties and a R$6 billion foreign capital outflow in July further heighten investor caution. The Central Bank of Brazil’s (BCB) 15% Selic rate, coupled with a 76.2% public debt-to-GDP ratio and a projected R$104 billion fiscal deficit for 2025, continues to strain the retail and construction sectors.
This combination sets a cautious tone for trading.
Today’s domestic economic agenda is pivotal, featuring two key releases that will shape market sentiment and policy expectations.
- CAGED Net Payroll Jobs (Jun) at 1:30 PM EST (2:30 PM BRT): With a previous reading of 148.99K, this report will signal labor market health, influencing consumer spending and retail sector performance in a high-interest-rate environment.
- Foreign Exchange Flows at 1:30 PM EST (2:30 PM BRT): With a previous reading of $0.216B, this indicator reflects capital flows, critical for currency stability amid trade tensions and foreign capital outflows.
Globally, key releases include:
- Spanish GDP (YoY and QoQ) (Q2) at 3:00 AM EST (4:00 AM BRT): With previous readings of 2.8% (YoY) and 0.6% (QoQ), these will signal Eurozone demand for Brazilian commodities like soybeans and iron ore.
- U.S. CB Consumer Confidence (Jul) at 10:00 AM EST (11:00 AM BRT): With a consensus of 95.9 (previous: 93.0), this will gauge U.S. consumer demand, impacting Brazil’s export markets.
- U.S. JOLTS Job Openings (Jun) at 10:00 AM EST (11:00 AM BRT): With a consensus of 7.510M (previous: 7.769M), this will reflect U.S. labor market health, influencing commodity demand.
These events are crucial for shaping Brazil’s export-driven economy amidst ongoing trade and fiscal pressures.
Economic Agenda
Brazil
- 1:30 PM EST / 2:30 PM BRT – CAGED Net Payroll Jobs (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 148.99K. Signals labor market health, impacting consumer spending and retail stocks in a high-interest-rate environment.
- 1:30 PM EST / 2:30 PM BRT – Foreign Exchange Flows: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 0.216B. Reflects capital inflows/outflows, critical for currency stability amid tariff risks and foreign capital outflows.
Mexico
- 8:00 AM EST / 9:00 AM BRT – GDP (YoY) (Q2): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 0.8%. Signals regional economic health, impacting Brazil’s trade outlook.
- 8:00 AM EST / 9:00 AM BRT – GDP (QoQ) (Q2): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 0.2%. Reflects quarterly growth, influencing regional demand.
- 5:00 PM EST / 6:00 PM BRT – Fiscal Balance (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -117.90B. Tracks fiscal health, affecting regional trade dynamics.
South Africa
- 2:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM BRT – M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Jun): Actual 7.27%, Consensus TBD, Previous 6.86%. Tracks money supply growth, influencing commodity demand.
- 2:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM BRT – Private Sector Credit (Jun): Actual 4.98%, Consensus TBD, Previous 4.98%. Gauges credit trends, impacting Brazil’s commodity exports.
Eurozone
- 3:00 AM EST / 4:00 AM BRT – Spanish GDP (YoY) (Q2): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 2.8%. Signals Eurozone economic health, impacting Brazil’s commodity exports.
- 3:00 AM EST / 4:00 AM BRT – Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q2): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.6%, Previous 0.6%. Reflects quarterly growth, influencing demand for Brazilian goods.
United Kingdom
- 4:30 AM EST / 5:30 AM BRT – BoE Consumer Credit (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus 1.200B, Previous 0.859B. Measures consumer borrowing, influencing demand for Brazilian agricultural exports.
- 4:30 AM EST / 5:30 AM BRT – Mortgage Approvals (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus 63.00K, Previous 63.03K. Signals housing market activity, impacting Brazil’s exports.
United States
- 10:00 AM EST / 11:00 AM BRT – CB Consumer Confidence (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus 95.9, Previous 93.0. Signals consumer sentiment, critical for Brazil’s export demand.
- 10:00 AM EST / 11:00 AM BRT – JOLTS Job Openings (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus 7.510M, Previous 7.769M. Reflects labor market health, impacting U.S. demand.
New Zealand
- 9:00 PM EST / 10:00 PM BRT – ANZ Business Confidence (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 46.3. Gauges business sentiment, impacting commodity demand.
Australia
- 9:30 PM EST / 10:30 PM BRT – CPI (YoY) (Q2): Actual TBD, Consensus 2.1%, Previous 2.4%. Tracks annual inflation trends, affecting commodity demand.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
Brazil’s Ibovespa index fell to a four-month low on July 28, 2025, dropping 0.21% to 133,524.18 points, driven by U.S. tariff threats and persistent domestic inflation pressures.
The IPCA-15 inflation rate of 5.30% over the past 12 months, above the BCB’s target, reinforced expectations that the 15% Selic rate will remain unchanged, increasing borrowing costs. Brazil’s building industry faced a slowdown, with confidence dropping due to rising costs, impacting construction firms.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. stocks ended quietly on July 28, 2025, with the S&P 500 edging up by less than 0.1% to 6,389.77, marking its sixth consecutive all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.1% to 44,837.56, while the Nasdaq composite rose 0.3% to 21,178.58, setting a new record.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 0.2% to 2,256.73. Market stability was supported by a U.S.-EU trade deal framework, though details remain pending.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The Brazilian real weakened as the U.S. dollar gained ground, with USD/BRL rising to 5.66, up 1.8% on July 28, 2025, driven by heightened U.S.-Brazil trade tensions ahead of the August 1, 2025, tariff deadline.
A stronger U.S. dollar and ongoing uncertainties kept markets cautious, with investors eyeing diplomatic efforts to mitigate tariff impacts.
Today’s CAGED Net Payroll Jobs and Foreign Exchange Flows at 1:30 PM EST (2:30 PM BRT) will provide critical insights into labor market health and capital flow trends, shaping expectations for currency stability amidst a R$6 billion foreign capital outflow in July.
Oil Prices
Oil markets showed strength, with Brent crude futures rising 1.2% to $67.29 per barrel on July 28, 2025, testing key resistance levels. Optimism over potential trade pacts and heightened geopolitical risks, including sanctions on key oil producers, supported the uptrend.
Today’s U.S. CB Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings at 10:00 AM EST (11:00 AM BRT) will provide demand signals for Petrobras’ revenues, as Brazil’s oil exports navigate global trade challenges.
Gold Prices
Gold prices dipped to $3,313.87 per ounce on July 28, 2025, down 0.03%, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and easing global tensions following progress on a U.S.-EU trade deal. Investors awaited further clarity on global stability and U.S. economic data.
Today’s U.S. CB Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings at 10:00 AM EST (11:00 AM BRT) will influence safe-haven flows, impacting Brazil’s mining sector, including Vale.
Silver Prices
Silver prices consolidated near $38.50 per ounce on July 28, 2025, supported by a softer U.S. dollar and balanced supply-demand dynamics. Strong ETF demand and tight supply conditions underpinned stability, with investors monitoring industrial and safe-haven trends.
Today’s U.S. CB Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings at 10:00 AM EST (11:00 AM BRT) will guide demand trends for Brazil’s mining exports.
Copper Prices
Copper prices fell to $4.11 per pound on July 28, 2025, down 0.6%, as U.S. tariff threats and technical selling pressure weighed on sentiment. Concerns over global demand, particularly from China, added to market caution.
Today’s U.S. CB Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings at 10:00 AM EST (11:00 AM BRT) will clarify industrial demand trends, supporting Vale’s outlook.
Cryptocurrencies
Crypto markets navigated modest turbulence over the last 24 hours, with Bitcoin consolidating near $117,900 on July 28, 2025, after a late Monday rebound driven by shifts in ETF flows.
Both one-day and four-hour Bitcoin charts indicate a prolonged consolidation, with resistance near $118,200 and support at $116,800. Volume data showed no abnormal buying or selling pressure, supporting the consolidation view.
A measured reduction in Bitcoin ETF inflows followed consistent institutional accumulation in prior weeks, with capital rotating into high-performing altcoins.
Today’s U.S. CB Consumer Confidence at 10:00 AM EST (11:00 AM BRT) will shape crypto sentiment, impacting Brazil’s fintech sector, including Mercado Livre and XP Inc.
Iron Ore Prices
Iron ore prices for 62% Fe, CFR China, stood at $99.25 per ton on July 28, 2025, facing resistance amid weak demand from China’s property sector and technical selling pressure.
The daily chart showed a bearish tilt, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 49 signaling neutral momentum and Bollinger Bands indicating reduced volatility. China’s port inventories remained elevated at 147 million tons, up 28% year-on-year, reflecting subdued steel demand.
Today’s U.S. CB Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings at 10:00 AM EST (11:00 AM BRT) will signal commodity demand trends, impacting Vale’s outlook.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil’s commodity-driven economy faces significant challenges from the 15% Selic rate, increasing borrowing costs for exporters and domestic firms, particularly in retail and construction.
The R$104 billion fiscal deficit and 76.2% debt-to-GDP ratio, combined with U.S. 50% tariffs, threaten export revenues and economic stability.
Today’s CAGED Net Payroll Jobs, Foreign Exchange Flows, and U.S. CB Consumer Confidence will shape export demand and market sentiment for Brazil’s key industries, including mining, energy, and agriculture. Below are key developments impacting the market:
U.S. Tariffs Threatening Export Revenues: The U.S. 50% tariffs, effective August 1, 2025, risk R$175 billion in export revenues, particularly in agriculture and manufacturing, driving the Ibovespa to a four-month low.
Construction Sector Slowdown: Brazil’s building industry reported declining confidence due to rising costs, impacting construction firms in early 2025.
BTG Pactual’s Expansion: BTG Pactual acquired HSBC’s Uruguay unit, strengthening its Latin American presence and boosting financial sector confidence.
Explanation of EST
Eastern Standard Time (EST) is the time zone used in the eastern United States, including New York, Washington, D.C., and Miami, set at UTC-5, five hours behind Coordinated Universal Time (UTC).
EST is applied here for consistency, as requested, and aligns with U.S. financial market schedules, influencing global trading.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-0.47%
205,526.47
-0.47%
66,790.35
-0.26%
10,912.39
-0.49%
2,857,176
+0.75%
2,591.39
+0.35%
59,543.73
+0.54%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 205,526.47 | -0.47% | +21.85% | 206,505.98 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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