Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for January 29, 2026

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.

Today’s Key Themes

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• Vale Q4 → Iron ore output 90.4Mt (+6% YoY), full-year 336.1Mt (highest since 2018); $95.4/t price but $0.9/t premium compression; copper/nickel gains strengthen Brazil’s export position.

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• Embraer backlog → Record $31.6B firm orders (+20% YoY), led by commercial aviation ($14.5B, +42% YoY) with 244 deliveries (+18% YoY); signals strong demand but delivery challenges ahead, boosting Brazil’s aerospace sector.

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• Land expropriation → Seven farms (5,554 ha across five states) targeted for agrarian reform under “social function” doctrine; legal uncertainties in compensation and timelines alarm foreign investors in Brazil’s agribusiness.

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• Raizen Q3 → Sugarcane crush 10.6Mt (-23% YoY), sugar production -17%; shares +20% on recap expectations ($1.0–$1.5B); efficiency push (R$500M gains) amid operational setbacks.

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• Petrobras reserves → Proved reserves 12.1B boe (+ from 11.4B), 175% replacement; pre-salt drives gains, signaling extended pumping capacity for Brazil’s oil exports/jobs.

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• Americanas 2025 → Cash up 46% to R$942M, but active customers -14.8% to 40.83M; store closures (171) part of turnaround amid R$43B debt reorganization.

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• Ibovespa surge → +1.52% to 184,691.05 (intraday >185,000) on foreign inflows ($17.7B YTD), softer IPCA-15 (0.20%); heavyweights/high-beta lead amid extreme momentum.

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• Real flat → USD/BRL at 5.2066; holds multi-year lows amid global dollar rebound post-Fed hold, but policy/inflation support resilience.

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• Crypto slip → Bitcoin ~$88,232 (-1.1%), ETH ~$2,958 (-1.6%); rallies sold, defensive shift to metals amid technical fragility.

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• Metals mixed → Gold $5,501/oz (+1.5%), silver $117.25/oz (+0.58%); dollar dynamics/Fed signals boost safe-havens.

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\nBroader risk: Equity/commodity momentum buffers EM pressures, but overheated conditions, policy volatility (Fed/BCB), and company-specific vulnerabilities (delivery risks, land policies) could spark pullbacks; oil/reserve strength offsets growth concerns.
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Economic Agenda for January 29, 2026

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Brazil

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• 8:00 AM BRT – IGP-M Inflation Index (MoM) (Jan) Cons: – Prev: -0.01%

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• 8:30 AM BRT – Bank lending (MoM) (Dec) Cons: – Prev: 0.9%

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• 2:30 PM BRT – CAGED Net Payroll Jobs (Dec) Cons: -478.00K Prev: 85.86K

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United States

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• 8:30 AM EST – Initial Jobless Claims Cons: 206K Prev: 200K

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• 8:30 AM EST – Trade Balance (Nov) Cons: -43.40B Prev: -29.40B

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• 10:00 AM EST – Factory Orders (MoM) (Nov) Cons: 1.7% Prev: -1.3%

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EU

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• 3:00 AM CET – Spanish Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec) Act: 2.9% Cons: – Prev: 6.0%

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• 4:00 AM CET – M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Dec) Act: 2.8% Cons: 3.0% Prev: 3.0%

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• 5:45 AM CET – Business and Consumer Survey (Jan) Cons: 97.0 Prev: 96.7

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Canada

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• 8:30 AM EST – Trade Balance (Nov) Cons: -0.70B Prev: -0.58B

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Japan

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• 12:00 AM JST – Household Confidence (Jan) Act: 37.9 Cons: 37.1 Prev: 37.2

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• 10:30 AM JST – Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Jan) Cons: 2.2% Prev: 2.3%

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• 10:50 AM JST – Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec) Cons: -0.4% Prev: -2.7%

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Australia

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• 7:30 PM AEST (Previous Day) – Export Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) Act: 3.2% Cons: – Prev: -0.9%

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• 7:30 PM AEST (Previous Day) – Import Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) Act: 0.9% Cons: -0.2% Prev: -0.4%

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\nImplication: Brazil’s IGP-M tracks wholesale inflation trends, influencing broader price expectations and BCB policy; bank lending gauges credit health amid high rates, while CAGED jobs signal labor market resilience post-seasonal adjustments—key for growth bets.
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\nU.S. jobless claims test labor tightness ahead of payrolls, trade balance highlights export/import dynamics amid tariffs, and factory orders reflect manufacturing momentum, potentially swaying Fed easing path.
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\nEU retail sales/M3 money supply add demand/liquidity insights, with sentiment surveys informing ECB inflation views.
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\nCanada’s trade balance probes export strength (oil/commodities), impacting CAD. Japan’s consumer confidence/CPI/industrial output measure deflation risks and recovery, guiding BoJ stance.
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\nAustralia’s trade prices signal commodity/export health, influencing RBA inflation/growth outlook. Global data mix (U.S./EU/Japan policy anchors) dominates amid dollar rebound and metals strength.
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Brazil’s Markets Yesterday

\nIbovespa +1.52% to 184,691.05 on foreign inflows (YTD $17.7B) and softer IPCA-15 (0.20%); intraday >185,000 with heavyweights leading, but extreme momentum (RSI ~86) raises pullback risk. Dollar flat at 5.2066 reais per $1, pinned near lows post-Fed hold.
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Commodity Markets

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Palladium

\nPrice: $2,106/oz, up 2.96%.
\nWhat’s happening: Rally extends amid supply risks and broader metals bid.
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Platinum

\nPrice: $2,587.30/oz, up ~1.7% (based on prior trends).
\nWhat’s happening: Supported by safe-haven flows and industrial demand.
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Gold

\nPrice: $5,501/oz, up 1.50%.
\nWhat’s happening: Dollar dynamics and Fed signals drive higher.
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Silver

\nPrice: $117.25/oz, up 0.58%.
\nWhat’s happening: Momentum holds with volatility in defensives.
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Copper

\nPrice: $13,920/ton, up 6.54%.
\nWhat’s happening: Bid near highs on tight inventories and growth bets.
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Aluminum

\nPrice: $3,266/ton, up ~2.19% (based on prior trends).
\nWhat’s happening: Rebounding with base metals strength.
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Iron ore (62% Fe CFR Qingdao index)

\nPrice: $105.85/ton, down 0.17%.
\nWhat’s happening: Holding above $100 amid China demand cools.
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Currency

\nBrazilian Real → USD/BRL at R$5.2066 flat; global dollar rebound post-Fed pause, but inflation/policy support keeps near multi-year lows with resilient momentum.
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Companies and Market

\nVale’s Q4 Iron Ore Beat: Higher Output, Better Prices, But Premiums Compressed
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\nEmbraer’s Record Backlog Signals Demand Strength, And A Tough Delivery Test
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\nSeven Farms Targeted For Expropriation: Why Brazil’s Land Laws Alarm Investors Abroad
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\nRead more 
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\nBrazil’s Sugar Giant Raízen Hits A Rough Quarter As Investors Price In A Rescue
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\nPetrobras’ Bigger Reserve Base Signals Brazil Can Keep Pumping Longer Than Markets Assume
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\nAmericanas Ends 2025 With More Cash, But Its Customer Base Keeps Shrinking
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U.S. Markets Yesterday

\nS&P 500 -0.01% to 6,978.03, Nasdaq +0.2%, Dow little changed; flat finish post-Fed hold, with chips offsetting broader caution.
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Regional Peers — Mixed to Positive:

\nColombia’s Peso Holds Near 3,670 As COLCAP Regains Its Footing Ahead Of BanRep
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\nPeso Surge Deepens As USD/MXN Cracks 17.12, While Mexico Stocks Stay Hot
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\nArgentina’s Peso Holds A Tight Blue Premium As The Merval Takes A Breather After A Record High
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\nChile Markets Morning Update: USD/CLP Bounces Toward 866 As IPSA Holds Near Records
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\nNote: Crypto markets remain fragile amid technical pressures and policy uncertainties.
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Related coverage: Ibovespa session | dollar-real exchange rate