Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for April 23, 2025
Brazilian markets are poised for a significant day as key economic releases, both domestic and international, shed light on currency dynamics, global demand, and economic resilience.
These indicators will influence Brazil’s export-heavy economy, particularly in commodities, amid optimism from easing U.S.-China trade tensions. At 13:30 PM (BRT), Brazil’s Foreign Exchange Flows (previous: -0.236B) will track the net balance of currency inflows and outflows.
A positive reading could bolster the Brazilian real and reflect growing investor confidence, critical for stabilizing Brazil’s external accounts, while a negative figure might signal capital flight, pressuring the currency amid strong commodity exports.
Globally, at 02:00 AM (EST) / 03:00 AM (BRT), the UK’s Public Sector Net Borrowing for March (consensus: 15.40B, previous: 10.71B) will gauge fiscal conditions in a key market.
Higher borrowing could indicate economic strain, potentially reducing demand for Brazilian agricultural and industrial exports, while a lower figure might support trade stability.
At 04:00 AM (EST) / 05:00 AM (BRT), the Eurozone’s Manufacturing PMI for April (consensus: 47.4, previous: 48.6) and Services PMI for April (consensus: 50.4, previous: 51.0) will measure industrial and service sector activity.
Weaker readings could dampen demand for Brazilian commodities like copper and iron ore, whereas stable or stronger figures might reinforce export optimism fueled by recent trade positivity.
At 08:30 AM (EST) / 09:30 AM (BRT), U.S. Building Permits for March (consensus: 1.482M, previous: 1.459M) will signal housing market strength in Brazil’s largest trading partner.
Robust permits could drive demand for Brazilian metals and construction-related exports, while a decline might temper commodity price expectations.
At 10:00 AM (EST) / 11:00 AM (BRT), U.S. New Home Sales for March (consensus: 680K, previous: 676K) will reflect consumer demand in the U.S. housing sector.
A rise could support Brazil’s commodity exports, particularly for construction materials, while a drop might indicate weaker trade flows, impacting Brazil’s economic outlook.
Economic Agenda for April 23, 2025
Brazil
- 13:30 PM – Foreign Exchange Flows: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous -0.236B. Tracks net currency flows, signaling investor confidence and currency stability critical for Brazil’s external accounts.
United Kingdom
- 02:00 AM (EST) – Public Sector Net Borrowing (Mar): Actual TBD, consensus 15.40B, previous 10.71B. Reflects fiscal health, influencing demand for Brazilian exports.
Eurozone
- 04:00 AM (EST) – Manufacturing PMI (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 47.4, previous 48.6. Measures industrial activity, impacting Brazil’s commodity export outlook.
- 04:00 AM (EST) – Services PMI (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 50.4, previous 51.0. Gauges service sector health, affecting trade sentiment for Brazilian goods.
United States
- 08:30 AM (EST) – Building Permits (Mar): Actual TBD, consensus 1.482M, previous 1.459M. Indicates housing market strength, critical for Brazil’s commodity exports.
- 10:00 AM (EST) – New Home Sales (Mar): Actual TBD, consensus 680K, previous 676K. Reflects U.S. consumer demand, influencing Brazil’s trade and commodity prices.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
The Brazilian stock market climbed on April 22, 2025, as investors reacted positively to signs of potential de-escalation in the U.S.-China trade war.
The Ibovespa rose 0.63% to close at 130,464.38 points, buoyed by global optimism following U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments on reducing trade tensions with China.
The Brazilian real strengthened significantly, with the USD/BRL exchange rate falling 1.31% to R$5.7284, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar and robust commodity export performance.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. stocks surged on April 22, 2025, recovering from prior losses as trade war fears eased. The S&P 500 rose 129.56 points, or 2.5%, to 5,287.76.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1,016.57 points, or 2.7%, to 39,186.98, and the Nasdaq composite climbed 429.52 points, or 2.7%, to 16,300.42.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies added 49.96 points, or 2.7%, to 1,890.28. Strong corporate earnings from companies like Equifax and 3M, alongside a stabilizing U.S. dollar, fueled the rally, creating a positive spillover for Brazilian assets.
Commodities
Oil Prices
Oil prices climbed on April 22, 2025, driven by tightened Iran sanctions and falling U.S. inventories, supporting Petrobras and Brazil’s oil export revenues. Today’s U.S. housing data will be critical for gauging demand signals, as construction activity influences energy consumption.
Gold Prices
Gold retreated sharply from its $3,500 historic peak on April 22, 2025, as President Trump softened his stance on Federal Reserve policy and U.S.-China trade tensions eased.
This decline pressures Brazil’s mining sector, though safe-haven demand may persist if global uncertainties linger.
Silver Prices
Silver defied gold’s retreat, advancing 1% to approximately $31.55 per ounce on April 22, 2025, driven by industrial optimism tied to easing trade tensions. This uptick supports Brazil’s mining exports, particularly as industrial demand strengthens.
Copper Prices
Copper prices rallied on April 22, 2025, fueled by trade optimism and a weaker U.S. dollar, benefiting Brazil’s commodity exports, including Vale’s operations. Today’s Eurozone PMI data will be key for assessing global industrial demand.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin surged to $94,000 on April 22, 2025, breaking resistance levels and reflecting bullish sentiment in global markets. This rally influences Brazil’s fintech sector, signaling growing investor confidence amid economic stabilization.
Companies and Market
Service Sector
Brazil’s service sector remains resilient, supported by domestic demand despite inflationary pressures highlighted by the Central Bank. Today’s Foreign Exchange Flows data will be critical for assessing capital inflows and their impact on service-driven growth.
Petrobras
Petrobras benefits from rising oil prices driven by Iran sanctions and U.S. inventory declines, strengthening its export outlook. Today’s U.S. housing data will provide further clarity on global energy demand, critical for Petrobras’ revenue projections.
Brazil’s Tariff Exposure
Easing U.S.-China trade tensions, signaled by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments, reduce risks to Brazil’s commodity exports like soybeans and iron ore, which rely heavily on Chinese demand. Today’s UK, Eurozone, and U
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+1.37%
186,340.46
+1.37%
64,214.36
-1.38%
10,969.49
-0.78%
2,819,323
+0.00%
2,549.16
-0.38%
60,410.88
-0.96%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 186,340.46 | +1.37% | +21.85% | 183,827.59 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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