Brazil elections 2022: Lula da Silva’s lead over Bolsonaro ranges from 3.1 to 16 points

The distance between former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party – PT) and the current president, Jair Bolsonaro (Liberal Party – PL), in the first round of the presidential race ranges from 3.1 to 16 percentage points, according to the main electoral polls released in recent days.

The maximum advantage was registered by Ipec (ex-Ibope) in a study carried out on September 17 and 18 (47% x 31%), while Paraná Pesquisas collected the minimum from September 8 to 12 (39.6% x 36.5%, a technical tie within the survey’s margin of error).

The divergence between the percentages does not mean that the survey has published erroneous data. These discrepancies can be explained using the methodologies adopted by each study.

Companies that conduct in-person interviews (Ipec, Datafolha, MDA, and Quaest) tend to give da Silva a greater advantage.

On the other hand, studies conducted by telephone (PoderData, Ipespe, and FSB) show a smaller difference between the leaders.

Paraná Pesquisas, which gives the smallest difference between the candidates, conducts its interviews in a hybrid manner, that is, by telephone and in person.

Poder360 considered the surveys conducted by Ipec, Datafolha, Ipespe, BTG/FSB, MDA/CNT, Quaest, PoderData, and Paraná Pesquisas.

With information from Poder360

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