Brazil elections 2022: Lula has 37%, Bolsonaro 36% in Rio de Janeiro state

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Just as in São Paulo, the presidential dispute in Rio de Janeiro promises to be tight.

In the electoral survey EXAME/IDEIA released this Thursday, June 16, in a portrait made among the electorate of Rio de Janeiro, former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party – PT) has 37% of voting intentions, and president Jair Bolsonaro (Liberal Party – PL) has 36%, in an estimated first-round question, with the names presented beforehand.

Considering the poll’s margin of error, which is three percentage points higher or lower, the two are tied.

Ciro Gomes, of PDT, has 10%. Simone Tebet (MDB) and André Janones (Avante) score 2% each.

Blanks and nulls add up to 5%, and 7% don’t know. The survey did not simulate a scenario of a national runoff in Rio de Janeiro.

One thousand people from the state were interviewed for the survey between June 10 and 15. The interviews were conducted by telephone, with calls to both residential landlines and cell phones.

The survey was registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under the number BR-07646/2022. The margin of error is three percentage points higher or lower.

Cila Schulman, vice president of the IDEIA research institute, recalls the importance of the state to the national scene, besides being where President Bolsonaro has his electoral base.

“The Southeast region concentrates the largest electoral colleges in the country and was fundamental for Bolsonaro’s victory in 2018.

“In Rio, in the last election, in 2018, the president beat the PT in all 92 cities of the state, in all electoral zones of the capital, and took the second round with 68% of the votes.

“Now, he appears, within the margin of error, tied with Lula,” says Cila Schulman, vice president of the IDEIA research institute.

In an open question, without presenting any name to the interviewees, Lula has 30%, Bolsonaro 27%, and Ciro appears with 6%. Those who say they will vote blank or null add up to 8%, and those who don’t know are 26%.

In the national EXAME/IDEIA electoral survey, released on May 19, Lula has 41%, and Bolsonaro appears with 24% in a first-round simulation. In a second-round simulation, Lula has 46% of voting intentions, and the president has 39%.

The distance between the two is seven percentage points, the smallest in a year.

RIO STATE GOVERNMENT: CASTRO AND FREIXO TIED

The dispute for the government of Rio de Janeiro shows a close scenario, with a tie between two pre-candidates.

According to the electoral survey EXAME/IDEIA, governor Cláudio Castro (Liberal Party – PL) has 24% of voting intentions, and federal deputy Marcelo Freixo (PSB) has 23%.

The numbers are from an estimated question. Considering the poll’s margin of error, which is three percentage points higher or lower, there is a technical tie between Castro and Freixo.

Behind them come the former mayor of Rio, Marcelo Crivella (Republicans), with 10%, and Rodrigo Neves (PDT), with 8%. The pair is also within the poll’s margin of error and is therefore considered tied. Among those interviewed, 8% said they would vote blank or null, and 17% didn’t know.

With information from Exame