Brazil 2026: Why São Paulo May Decide Who Leads The Right
Key Points
- 62.7% say they would or might follow Governor Tarcísio de Freitas’s endorsement in São Paulo.
- Runoff tests show likely successors start far behind today, largely due to low recognition.
- The presidential succession dispute is turning São Paulo into the key bargaining table.
A new Instituto Travessia poll asks whether Tarcísio can transfer votes if he skips re-election to pursue the presidency.
On the core question, 36.1% said they would vote for a candidate endorsed by Tarcísio and 26.6% said “maybe,” totaling 62.7% open to his recommendation. 34.8% said they would not, and 2.5% were unsure.
Travessia interviewed 1,000 voters on December 16–18; margin of error is three points, confidence 95%. The catch is the bench. In second-round simulations, Vice Governor Felício Ramuth trails badly: Alckmin leads 43.4% to 14.3%, and Haddad leads 41.8% to 15.5%.
Gilberto Kassab also starts far back: Alckmin 42.2% to 16.5%; Haddad 43.3% to 16.5%. São Paulo Mayor Ricardo Nunes is closer but still behind: Alckmin 39.2% to 32.6%; Haddad 39.7% to 32.7%.
Other heir names in circulation include Assembly Speaker André do Prado and former public security chief Guilherme Derrite. If Nunes leaves city hall, vice mayor Mello Araújo takes over, worrying coalition partners.
Rejection and identity show the terrain. “Never vote” rates: Haddad 35.2%, Alckmin 28.4%, Kassab 27.4%, Nunes 27.4%, Tarcísio 24.8%, Ramuth 19.4%. Self-ID: 29.8% right, 19.3% left, 15.3% center; about a quarter label Alckmin as left.
Asked what Tarcísio should do in 2026: re-election 29.5%, presidency 15.7%, neither 33.3%, no answer 21.5%. Nationally, Tarcísio’s presidential buzz cooled after Jair Bolsonaro signaled Senator Flávio Bolsonaro as his preferred heir.
Yet São Paulo runoff scenarios still show Tarcísio leading Lula 44.7% to 36.1%, while Lula leads Flávio 39.9% to 32.3%. That split is why this matters abroad: Brazil’s 2026 coalition may be decided first in São Paulo, then carried to Brasília.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief