IBOV 176,210 ▼ 0.81% IPSA 10,564 ▼ 0.34% IPC MEX 68,333 ▼ 0.07% MERVAL 2,846,220 ▼ 1.08% COLCAP 2,118 ▼ 0.22% BVL PERÚ 19,767 ▲ 0.37% USD/BRL 5.02 ▼ 0.36% USD/MXN 17.29 ▼ 0.23% USD/CLP 900.71 — 0.00% USD/COP 3,684 ▲ 0.00% USD/PEN 3.40 ▼ 0.51% USD/ARS 1,399 ▼ 0.14% USD/UYU 39.92 — 0.00% USD/PYG 6,064 — 0.00% USD/BOB 6.85 — 0.00% USD/DOP 58.65 ▼ 0.36% USD/CRC 451.95 — 0.00% USD/GTQ 7.62 — 0.00% USD/HNL 26.61 — 0.00% USD/NIO 36.62 — 0.00% USD/VES 529.18 ▼ 0.13% USD/PAB 1.00 ▲ 2.23% USD/BZD 2.00 ▲ 1.66% USD/JMD 156.69 ▲ 0.53% USD/TTD 6.71 ▲ 0.87% EUR/BRL 5.84 ▲ 0.02% BRENT 100.21 ▼ 3.22% WTI 96.60 — 0.00% IRON ORE 161.91 — — COPPER 6.38 ▲ 0.58% GOLD 4,523 ▲ 0.05% SILVER 76.20 ▲ 0.40% SOY 1,197 ▲ 0.19% CORN 463.25 ▲ 0.22% WHEAT 646.25 ▼ 0.19% COFFEE 264.00 ▼ 3.44% SUGAR 14.68 ▼ 1.48% ORANGE JUICE 166.80 ▲ 0.12% COTTON 77.34 ▼ 0.82% COCOA 3,886 ▲ 3.16% BEEF 239.60 ▼ 3.83% CATTLE 349.85 ▼ 5.22% LITHIUM 85.28 ▲ 1.07% PETR4 44.48 ▼ 1.05% VALE3 83.10 ▲ 0.57% ITUB4 39.43 ▼ 1.72% BBDC4 17.62 ▼ 1.56% ABEV3 16.10 ▼ 1.83% BBAS3 20.94 ▲ 0.58% B3SA3 16.66 ▼ 2.12% WEGE3 42.73 ▲ 0.61% PRIO3 68.40 ▲ 0.59% SUZB3 41.70 ▼ 1.33% RENT3 43.35 ▼ 1.57% AZZA3 20.72 ▲ 3.86% CSAN3 4.29 ▼ 2.50% RAIZ4 0.39 — 0.00% PCAR3 2.08 ▼ 1.42% GMAT3 4.39 ▼ 0.90% PSSA3 49.17 ▼ 0.59% CVCB3 1.77 ▼ 0.56% POSI3 4.06 ▼ 0.73% SLCE3 16.07 ▼ 2.61% NATU3 10.10 ▼ 0.98% BRKM5 11.97 ▼ 0.50% RANI3 8.08 ▲ 0.25% CSNA3 6.73 ▲ 6.15% CMIN3 4.48 ▲ 1.13% USIM5 10.35 ▲ 5.61% GGBR4 24.01 ▲ 2.17% ENEV3 24.96 ▼ 2.19% NEOE3 33.80 — 0.00% CPFE3 43.31 ▼ 0.89% CMIG4 11.22 ▼ 1.23% EQTL3 37.67 ▼ 1.23% LREN3 15.07 ▲ 1.48% VIVT3 34.81 ▼ 1.36% RAIL3 14.21 ▼ 3.14% KLABIN 16.46 ▼ 0.30% RAIA DROGASIL 18.19 ▼ 2.47% RDOR3 34.07 ▼ 1.50% HAPV3 12.05 ▼ 2.35% FLRY3 15.69 — 0.00% SMTO3 17.60 ▼ 0.23% UGPA3 28.70 ▼ 1.54% VBBR3 32.75 ▼ 1.98% BBSE3 34.47 ▼ 0.78% BPAC11 53.93 ▼ 0.81% CURY3 30.53 ▼ 2.15% AERI3 2.40 ▲ 5.26% VIVARA 22.19 ▼ 0.58% COMPASS 26.90 ▼ 0.41% VAMOS 3.25 ▼ 3.56% SANB11 27.10 ▼ 1.78% ASAI3 8.44 ▼ 0.47% SBSP3 28.46 ▼ 0.56% WALMEX 55.53 ▲ 0.43% GMEXICO 205.95 ▲ 1.44% FEMSA 209.93 ▼ 0.21% CEMEX 21.83 ▲ 0.32% GFNORTE 191.22 ▲ 2.30% BIMBO 58.22 ▲ 0.47% TELEVISA 9.77 ▲ 0.93% AMX 22.66 ▼ 0.61% GAP 416.34 ▼ 0.94% ASUR 301.98 ▼ 2.18% OMA 222.78 ▼ 1.26% KOF 185.71 ▼ 0.13% GRUMA 292.47 ▼ 0.40% KIMBER 37.60 ▼ 1.36% SQM-B 71,950 ▼ 1.30% COPEC 6,400 ▼ 0.40% BSANTANDER 70.20 ▲ 0.14% FALABELLA 5,719 ▲ 2.13% ENELAM 77.00 ▲ 1.05% CENCOSUD 2,116 ▼ 2.94% CMPC 1,095 — 0.00% BANCO CHILE 169.00 ▼ 1.69% LATAM AIR 22.59 ▲ 0.09% YPF 71,025 ▲ 0.25% GGAL 6,455 ▼ 0.54% PAMPA 4,793 ▼ 0.93% TXAR 638.00 ▲ 0.08% ALUAR 947.00 ▲ 2.05% TGS 8,685 ▼ 1.81% CEPU 2,077 ▼ 3.03% MIRGOR 16,350 ▲ 0.46% COME 43.70 ▼ 2.35% LOMA NEGRA 3,275 ▼ 2.24% BYMA 286.00 ▲ 3.44% TELECOM ARG 3,493 ▼ 1.06% ECOPETROL 13.85 ▼ 0.11% BANCOLOMBIA 65.88 ▼ 0.66% GRUPO AVAL 4.23 ▼ 0.70% CREDICORP 334.10 ▼ 2.88% SOUTHERN COPPER 179.67 ▲ 0.31% BUENAVENTURA 33.48 ▼ 0.68% MERCADOLIBRE 1,664 ▼ 0.80% NUBANK 12.73 ▼ 3.27% XP 16.82 ▼ 6.14% PAGSEGURO 9.14 ▼ 1.93% STONE 11.00 ▼ 0.90% GLOBANT 40.13 ▼ 1.23% TECNOGLASS 41.17 ▼ 0.07% GAP AIRPORT 240.40 ▼ 1.52% ASUR 301.98 ▼ 2.18% OMA AIRPORT 103.21 ▼ 1.38% AMX ADR 26.13 ▼ 0.76% FEMSA ADR 121.28 ▼ 0.10% CEMEX ADR 12.57 ▼ 0.16% PETROBRAS ADR 19.90 ▼ 0.65% VALE ADR 16.47 — 0.00% ITAU ADR 7.82 ▼ 2.25% SANTANDER BR 5.40 ▼ 2.97% AMBEV ADR 3.20 ▼ 2.29% CSN 1.35 ▲ 5.08% GERDAU 4.75 ▲ 1.06% LATAM ADR 49.89 ▼ 2.06% BTC 77,235 ▲ 0.33% ETH 2,110 ▲ 0.58% SOL 85.73 ▲ 0.56% XRP 1.36 ▲ 0.58% BNB 660.75 ▲ 0.71% ADA 0.24 ▲ 0.69% DOGE 0.10 ▲ 0.33% AVAX 9.32 ▲ 1.23% LINK 9.49 ▲ 0.66% DOT 1.26 ▲ 1.31% LTC 52.92 ▲ 0.29% BCH 350.18 ▲ 0.96% TRX 0.37 ▲ 0.32% XLM 0.15 ▲ 3.76% HBAR 0.09 ▲ 0.97% NEAR 2.38 ▼ 0.40% ATOM 2.15 ▲ 4.76% AAVE 86.28 ▲ 0.87% SELIC 14.50% EMBRAER 72.33 ▲ 2.15% EMBRAER ADR 57.58 ▲ 1.88% JBS 13.21 ▼ 0.53% JBS BDR 66.24 ▲ 0.44% MBRF3 16.60 ▼ 4.05% MBRFY 3.34 ▲ 0.30% INTER 6.16 ▼ 3.75% IBOV 176,210 ▼ 0.81% IPSA 10,564 ▼ 0.34% IPC MEX 68,333 ▼ 0.07% MERVAL 2,846,220 ▼ 1.08% COLCAP 2,118 ▼ 0.22% BVL PERÚ 19,767 ▲ 0.37% USD/BRL 5.02 ▼ 0.36% USD/MXN 17.29 ▼ 0.23% USD/CLP 900.71 — 0.00% USD/COP 3,684 ▲ 0.00% USD/PEN 3.40 ▼ 0.51% USD/ARS 1,399 ▼ 0.14% USD/UYU 39.92 — 0.00% USD/PYG 6,064 — 0.00% USD/BOB 6.85 — 0.00% USD/DOP 58.65 ▼ 0.36% USD/CRC 451.95 — 0.00% USD/GTQ 7.62 — 0.00% USD/HNL 26.61 — 0.00% USD/NIO 36.62 — 0.00% USD/VES 529.18 ▼ 0.13% USD/PAB 1.00 ▲ 2.23% USD/BZD 2.00 ▲ 1.66% USD/JMD 156.69 ▲ 0.53% USD/TTD 6.71 ▲ 0.87% EUR/BRL 5.84 ▲ 0.02% BRENT 100.21 ▼ 3.22% WTI 96.60 — 0.00% IRON ORE 161.91 — — COPPER 6.38 ▲ 0.58% GOLD 4,523 ▲ 0.05% SILVER 76.20 ▲ 0.40% SOY 1,197 ▲ 0.19% CORN 463.25 ▲ 0.22% WHEAT 646.25 ▼ 0.19% COFFEE 264.00 ▼ 3.44% SUGAR 14.68 ▼ 1.48% ORANGE JUICE 166.80 ▲ 0.12% COTTON 77.34 ▼ 0.82% COCOA 3,886 ▲ 3.16% BEEF 239.60 ▼ 3.83% CATTLE 349.85 ▼ 5.22% LITHIUM 85.28 ▲ 1.07% PETR4 44.48 ▼ 1.05% VALE3 83.10 ▲ 0.57% ITUB4 39.43 ▼ 1.72% BBDC4 17.62 ▼ 1.56% ABEV3 16.10 ▼ 1.83% BBAS3 20.94 ▲ 0.58% B3SA3 16.66 ▼ 2.12% WEGE3 42.73 ▲ 0.61% PRIO3 68.40 ▲ 0.59% SUZB3 41.70 ▼ 1.33% RENT3 43.35 ▼ 1.57% AZZA3 20.72 ▲ 3.86% CSAN3 4.29 ▼ 2.50% RAIZ4 0.39 — 0.00% PCAR3 2.08 ▼ 1.42% GMAT3 4.39 ▼ 0.90% PSSA3 49.17 ▼ 0.59% CVCB3 1.77 ▼ 0.56% POSI3 4.06 ▼ 0.73% SLCE3 16.07 ▼ 2.61% NATU3 10.10 ▼ 0.98% BRKM5 11.97 ▼ 0.50% RANI3 8.08 ▲ 0.25% CSNA3 6.73 ▲ 6.15% CMIN3 4.48 ▲ 1.13% USIM5 10.35 ▲ 5.61% GGBR4 24.01 ▲ 2.17% ENEV3 24.96 ▼ 2.19% NEOE3 33.80 — 0.00% CPFE3 43.31 ▼ 0.89% CMIG4 11.22 ▼ 1.23% EQTL3 37.67 ▼ 1.23% LREN3 15.07 ▲ 1.48% VIVT3 34.81 ▼ 1.36% RAIL3 14.21 ▼ 3.14% KLABIN 16.46 ▼ 0.30% RAIA DROGASIL 18.19 ▼ 2.47% RDOR3 34.07 ▼ 1.50% HAPV3 12.05 ▼ 2.35% FLRY3 15.69 — 0.00% SMTO3 17.60 ▼ 0.23% UGPA3 28.70 ▼ 1.54% VBBR3 32.75 ▼ 1.98% BBSE3 34.47 ▼ 0.78% BPAC11 53.93 ▼ 0.81% CURY3 30.53 ▼ 2.15% AERI3 2.40 ▲ 5.26% VIVARA 22.19 ▼ 0.58% COMPASS 26.90 ▼ 0.41% VAMOS 3.25 ▼ 3.56% SANB11 27.10 ▼ 1.78% ASAI3 8.44 ▼ 0.47% SBSP3 28.46 ▼ 0.56% WALMEX 55.53 ▲ 0.43% GMEXICO 205.95 ▲ 1.44% FEMSA 209.93 ▼ 0.21% CEMEX 21.83 ▲ 0.32% GFNORTE 191.22 ▲ 2.30% BIMBO 58.22 ▲ 0.47% TELEVISA 9.77 ▲ 0.93% AMX 22.66 ▼ 0.61% GAP 416.34 ▼ 0.94% ASUR 301.98 ▼ 2.18% OMA 222.78 ▼ 1.26% KOF 185.71 ▼ 0.13% GRUMA 292.47 ▼ 0.40% KIMBER 37.60 ▼ 1.36% SQM-B 71,950 ▼ 1.30% COPEC 6,400 ▼ 0.40% BSANTANDER 70.20 ▲ 0.14% FALABELLA 5,719 ▲ 2.13% ENELAM 77.00 ▲ 1.05% CENCOSUD 2,116 ▼ 2.94% CMPC 1,095 — 0.00% BANCO CHILE 169.00 ▼ 1.69% LATAM AIR 22.59 ▲ 0.09% YPF 71,025 ▲ 0.25% GGAL 6,455 ▼ 0.54% PAMPA 4,793 ▼ 0.93% TXAR 638.00 ▲ 0.08% ALUAR 947.00 ▲ 2.05% TGS 8,685 ▼ 1.81% CEPU 2,077 ▼ 3.03% MIRGOR 16,350 ▲ 0.46% COME 43.70 ▼ 2.35% LOMA NEGRA 3,275 ▼ 2.24% BYMA 286.00 ▲ 3.44% TELECOM ARG 3,493 ▼ 1.06% ECOPETROL 13.85 ▼ 0.11% BANCOLOMBIA 65.88 ▼ 0.66% GRUPO AVAL 4.23 ▼ 0.70% CREDICORP 334.10 ▼ 2.88% SOUTHERN COPPER 179.67 ▲ 0.31% BUENAVENTURA 33.48 ▼ 0.68% MERCADOLIBRE 1,664 ▼ 0.80% NUBANK 12.73 ▼ 3.27% XP 16.82 ▼ 6.14% PAGSEGURO 9.14 ▼ 1.93% STONE 11.00 ▼ 0.90% GLOBANT 40.13 ▼ 1.23% TECNOGLASS 41.17 ▼ 0.07% GAP AIRPORT 240.40 ▼ 1.52% ASUR 301.98 ▼ 2.18% OMA AIRPORT 103.21 ▼ 1.38% AMX ADR 26.13 ▼ 0.76% FEMSA ADR 121.28 ▼ 0.10% CEMEX ADR 12.57 ▼ 0.16% PETROBRAS ADR 19.90 ▼ 0.65% VALE ADR 16.47 — 0.00% ITAU ADR 7.82 ▼ 2.25% SANTANDER BR 5.40 ▼ 2.97% AMBEV ADR 3.20 ▼ 2.29% CSN 1.35 ▲ 5.08% GERDAU 4.75 ▲ 1.06% LATAM ADR 49.89 ▼ 2.06% BTC 77,235 ▲ 0.33% ETH 2,110 ▲ 0.58% SOL 85.73 ▲ 0.56% XRP 1.36 ▲ 0.58% BNB 660.75 ▲ 0.71% ADA 0.24 ▲ 0.69% DOGE 0.10 ▲ 0.33% AVAX 9.32 ▲ 1.23% LINK 9.49 ▲ 0.66% DOT 1.26 ▲ 1.31% LTC 52.92 ▲ 0.29% BCH 350.18 ▲ 0.96% TRX 0.37 ▲ 0.32% XLM 0.15 ▲ 3.76% HBAR 0.09 ▲ 0.97% NEAR 2.38 ▼ 0.40% ATOM 2.15 ▲ 4.76% AAVE 86.28 ▲ 0.87% SELIC 14.50% EMBRAER 72.33 ▲ 2.15% EMBRAER ADR 57.58 ▲ 1.88% JBS 13.21 ▼ 0.53% JBS BDR 66.24 ▲ 0.44% MBRF3 16.60 ▼ 4.05% MBRFY 3.34 ▲ 0.30% INTER 6.16 ▼ 3.75%
since 2009
Monday, May 25, 2026

Markets Crypto

Bitcoin Price Today Rebounds to $77,345 as Trump Announces Iran Peace Deal

By · May 25, 2026 · 4 min read

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Monday, May 25, 2026 · Covering weekend May 23–25 session
Summary

Bitcoin price today trades at $77,345 (+0.48%) on Monday, recovering from a Saturday low of $74,192 after President Trump announced a “largely negotiated” Iran peace deal on Truth Social late Saturday afternoon. The spike triggered roughly $180 million in crypto short liquidations. Oil fell about 5% Sunday (WTI to $91.65) as Trump signalled negotiations were “constructive” but warned he would not rush. Net move from Friday’s $75,174 close: +2.9% over the weekend, recovering most of the Warsh-era opening losses.

The Big Three

1.
Bitcoin trades at $77,345 (+0.48%) on Monday morning per Bitstamp, range $76,833–$77,554. Late Friday into early Saturday, BTC crumbled about 4% to the Saturday low at $74,192. Trump’s Saturday evening Truth Social post — “An Agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and various other Countries” — spiked BTC from $74,192 to $77,303 within minutes, with roughly $180M in crypto short liquidations.
2.
ETF flows are the bearish overhang. Spot Bitcoin ETFs bled $1.26B in the past week (six-day loss streak per Cointelegraph), $2.26B over two weeks. Ether ETFs lost $216M; Solana ETFs took +$15.6M; XRP ETFs +$22M. The leveraged-bear setup was overextended into the Trump headline.
3.
The altcoin tape is mixed Monday. Ether underperforms at $2,107 (−0.77%); Solana $85.63 (−0.62%); HYPE +0.91% to $61.92 holds record region. Zcash (ZEC) +4.69% to $657.27 is the breakout as privacy-coin bid resumes. Nasdaq filed for Bitcoin options listing pending CFTC approval.
BTC/USD
$77,345
+0.48%
Weekend Low
$74,192
Sat AM
Short Liquidations
$180M
On Trump post
WTI Oil
$91.65
−5% Sun

02 Weekend Tape

Asset Price 24h Note
Bitcoin (BTC) $77,345 +0.48% Iran-deal bounce from $74,192 Sat low
Ether (ETH) $2,106.77 −0.77% Underperforming, ETF outflows continue
Solana (SOL) $85.63 −0.62% SOL ETFs took +$15.6M last week
HYPE $61.92 +0.91% Holds record-region, AI/Hyperliquid theme
XRP $1.354 −0.39% XRP ETFs took +$22M last week
Zcash (ZEC) $657.27 +4.69% Privacy-coin breakout
Gold (XAU) $4,557 +0.24% Cross-asset hedge bid easing
Silver (XAG) $77.50 +0.61% Holding the elevated range
Source: Bitstamp, CoinDesk, Cointelegraph, CNBC, Polymarket. Snapshot: May 25, 2026 06:11 UTC.
Live Market IntelligenceCrypto — Live Market BoardInside: market breadth, the sector heatmap, currencies & rates, the Latin America scoreboard and the full instrument board.

Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence

Crypto — Live Market Board

Digital assets
May 25, 2026 · 05:25

Bitcoin · benchmark
77,235
+0.33%
L 76,843day rangeH 77,473

-29.16% over 12 months

Market breadth · 17 names
94% advancing

16 ▲ advancing1 declining ▼

Currencies, rates & key inputs
Ethereum
2,110
+0.58%

Solana
85.73
+0.56%

Gold
4,523
+0.05%

USD / BRL
5.02
-0.36%

Full instrument board
Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
BTC 77,235 +0.33% -29.16% 76,981 77,473 76,843 22,468,460,544
ETH 2,110 +0.58% -17.29% 2,098 2,114 2,091 11,323,136,000
SOL 85.73 +0.56% -51.21% 85.25 85.99 84.77 3,278,695,424
XRP 1.36 +0.58% -42.03% 1.35 1.36 1.34 1,373,057,664
BNB 660.75 +0.71% -1.37% 656.10 661.23 655.49 1,125,322,112
ADA 0.24 +0.69% -67.92% 0.24 0.24 0.24 304,279,232
DOGE 0.10 +0.33% -54.43% 0.10 0.10 0.10 601,774,912
AVAX 9.32 +1.23% -60.24% 9.21 9.34 9.16 241,118,144
LINK 9.49 +0.66% -38.89% 9.43 9.52 9.36 256,597,616
DOT 1.26 +1.31% -72.13% 1.24 1.27 1.24 98,478,944
LTC 52.92 +0.29% -44.68% 52.77 52.91 52.48 226,031,872
BCH 350.18 +0.96% -17.19% 346.85 350.95 344.05 384,809,344
TRX 0.37 +0.32% +34.77% 0.37 0.37 0.36 684,032,704
XLM 0.15 +3.76% -46.81% 0.15 0.15 0.15 95,058,736
HBAR 0.09 +0.97% -52.58% 0.09 0.09 0.09 40,564,544
NEAR 2.38 -0.40% -14.86% 2.39 2.41 2.34 682,649,472
ATOM 2.15 +4.76% -55.23% 2.05 2.18 2.05 44,860,460
AAVE 86.28 +0.87% -67.88% 85.53 86.64 85.28 155,422,368

Largest moves today
ATOM
2.15
+4.76%
XLM
0.15
+3.76%
DOT
1.26
+1.31%
AVAX
9.32
+1.23%
HBAR
0.09
+0.97%
BCH
350.18
+0.96%
AAVE
86.28
+0.87%
BNB
660.75
+0.71%

The session read
The Bitcoin rose 0.33%, with breadth positive — 16 of 17 names higher. ATOM led, while NEAR lagged.

03 What Drove the Bounce

Local Driver: Trump Iran deal headline triggers $180M short squeeze

Saturday’s Truth Social post hit a market positioning short on the Warsh handoff and six-day ETF outflow streak. The unwind was mechanical: $180M in shorts liquidated as BTC ran from $74,192 to $77,303. Sunday’s Trump caveat that he “won’t rush” capped further upside but did not reverse the squeeze. Polymarket’s US-Iran permanent peace contracts hit $154M total volume with December 2026 at 91% odds.

External Trigger: Oil collapses 5% as Hormuz reopening prices in

WTI fell about 5% Sunday to $91.65, Brent to $98.30, on Trump’s “constructive negotiations” framing. The Hormuz blockade nominally remains until a deal is finalised, but oil markets are now pricing reopening as the base case. The flow-through to crypto is straightforward: lower oil eases the inflation-overhang case that supported the Warsh-hawkish-hold thesis, which loosens the dollar-strength setup that hit BTC into Friday. Wall Street closed at records into Memorial Day; Monday is a US holiday with reduced liquidity.

§04 · Market Commentary

The weekend reversal is real but the structural picture is unchanged. ETF outflows mean institutional positioning is still de-risking; the Trump-Iran short squeeze was a leveraged-bear unwind, not a fresh institutional bid. The split inside the ETF complex is the cleanest read: BTC and ETH funds bleeding, SOL and XRP funds adding — capital is rotating within crypto, not exiting.

Two macro overlays matter. Kevin Warsh enters his first FOMC June 17–18 with $131M+ in personal crypto holdings, the most crypto-literate Fed chair ever; Polymarket prices a 52% hike chance. The Iran-deal pathway determines whether the bounce sustains. $74,192 defines the weekend reversal; $80,000 is the resistance that has held since early May.

05 Technical Snapshot

BTC/USD daily chart Bitstamp May 25: close 77,345 (+0.48%) range 76,833-77,554. Above the Kijun cluster near 76,952. Cloud structure visible. MACD bearish setup healing with histogram -198 narrowing. RSI 49.03/48.42 at midline. 200-DMA visible above near 78K acting as overhead resistance.

BTC/USD daily, Bitstamp. TradingView · May 25, 2026 06:11 UTC

BTC $77,345 sits just above the Kijun cluster at $76,952 with the 200-DMA at $78,513 as the immediate overhead resistance — the same line that capped the post-Warsh recovery attempts. The MACD remains bearish on the daily (line below signal) but the histogram is narrowing significantly from Friday’s deeper red, consistent with a single-day reversal that the slower-moving indicator has not yet caught up to. RSI 49.03/48.42 sits right at the midline, recovering off oversold. A daily close above $78,843 reopens $80,407 and the $82,765 region; a fade back below $74,920 (BB lower) negates the weekend bounce.

Resistance: $77,448 · $78,513 (200-DMA) · $78,843 · $80,407 · $82,765
Support: $76,952 (Kijun) · $76,383 · $74,920 (BB lower) · $74,192 (Sat low)
Invalidation: Daily close below $74,192 weekend low reopens the prior leg lower.

06 Forward Look

Mon May 25 · US Memorial Day, partial liquidity
US markets closed; crypto trades 24/7 but cross-asset hedging flows are reduced.
Rolling · Iran deal finalisation
Trump signalled an answer by May 24–25; final approval may take several days.
Daily · ETF flow data
A break in the six-day BTC ETF outflow streak would be the cleanest institutional confirmation of the bounce.
June 17–18 · First Warsh FOMC
Polymarket hike odds 52%; the binary that determines whether the Warsh-shock has more legs.

07 Questions & Answers

What caused the weekend bounce in Bitcoin?
Trump’s Saturday Truth Social post on a “largely negotiated” Iran deal triggered roughly $180M in short liquidations, lifting BTC from $74,192 to $77,303 in minutes.
Why is Ether underperforming Bitcoin?
Ether ETFs lost $216M last week vs Bitcoin ETFs at $1.26B; both bleeding. SOL and XRP ETFs took inflows — institutional capital is rotating within crypto, not exiting.
What does the Nasdaq Bitcoin options filing mean?
Pending CFTC approval, it brings Bitcoin options to a major US exchange, expanding institutional risk-management infrastructure and lowering hedging costs.

Verdict

Bitcoin’s weekend reversal recovered most of the Warsh-era opening losses on a Trump-Iran headline that triggered a leveraged-bear unwind. The institutional picture is unchanged — ETF outflows continue, BTC and ETH funds still bleeding while SOL and XRP add. The bounce needs an ETF-flow turn to confirm. $74,192 is the line that defines the weekend reversal; $80,000 is the resistance that has held since early May.

Related: CoinDesk: Trump Iran post · Sat May 23 Warsh shock · Fri May 22 setup.

The squeeze ran; the flows haven’t turned. ETF data is the confirmation tell.

Disclaimer: This report is editorial market analysis based on publicly available data. It is not investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile; consult a licensed professional before trading.

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