As in 2019, Election Results in Bolivia May Not Find Acceptance

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – In the week before the parliamentary and presidential elections in Bolivia this coming Sunday, there is a growing number of voices in both camps, as well as from independent organizations, who fear renewed electoral fraud or a continuation of last year’s strife. A number of factors suggest that last year’s events may be repeated.

The Movement for Socialism (MAS) party, which was far ahead in the most recent polls, sees the renewed presence of the Organization of American States (OAS) election observation mission under the same staff leadership as last year a serious problem. The OAS has sent 40 people from 12 countries, headed, as last year, by Manuel González from Costa Rica.

However, due to the Covid-19 pandemic, he will only be present virtually; on-site, the OAS is led by Francisco Guerrero. The fact that González will once again be the main person in charge was described by the MAS spokesperson, Marianela Paco, as an “affront to the Bolivian people”.

With its accusations of irregularities in the October 20th, 2019 elections, the OAS played a decisive role in the resignation of President Evo Morales and subsequent developments, with MAS politicians claiming persecution and even massacres of its supporters. Last year, the OAS submitted an audit report, which found “malicious manipulation” and “serious irregularities” in the reporting of last year’s election results.

However, this opinion has been refuted on several occasions, as studies and evaluations by the US non-governmental organization Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) or the US daily New York Times have shown.

Nevertheless, OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro warned the public two weeks ago, by once again declaring a possible election victory of MAS candidate Luis Arce in the first round of voting on Sunday as potential electoral fraud.

The head of the OAS mission in Bolivia on Tuesday appealed to “all political forces in the country” to accept the results in any event. However, it is feared that the far-right, as well as the OAS represented by Almagro, will not do so, as was the case last year.

After last year’s experience, MAS considers there is a danger that history could repeat itself and that a first-round victory would not be accepted by its political rivals. MAS spokesperson Paco said earlier this week that a “second blow to democracy” was underway because the counting system newly developed by the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE), which will be used for the first time on Sunday, was “completely non-transparent”.

Earlier, the TSE Chief Judge Salvador Romero had declared that there would be no pictures of the voting protocols this year. This means that neither the media nor the population will be able to review the count. Moreover, the counting system has not yet been internationally recognized, said Paco.

The CEPR raised the same concerns yesterday. In a press release, it referred to a Twitter reply from the United Nations Development Programme, according to which it is also believed that “there will be no separate download of the results in Excel format.” This was also the case in last year’s elections. This made it possible to refute the OAS’ accusation that there had been irregularities on such a scale that the election was decisively manipulated in favor of MAS and Morales.

There is also skepticism among the population that the elections will take place unchallenged. This is the result of a study by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, which is close to the SPD, reported in the Bolivian daily La Razón. According to the study, 67.6 percent of respondents believe that the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) can guarantee “clean and transparent” elections, but 38 percent have no “confidence” in the OAS as a free election observer.

When asked who would accept a MAS victory, 44 percent of respondents believed that supporters of the interim president, Jeanine Áñez, who is still in office but will not run on Sunday, would not do so. According to respondents, 83 percent of supporters of the far-right candidate Fernando Camacho would not recognize a MAS victory.

However, 75 percent of respondents believed that the more moderate candidate and Arce’s biggest rival, Carlos Mesa, would accept the election results. However, if MAS loses, 54 percent of respondents believe that Arce, MAS, and their supporters will not accept the result.

The fact that for the right and the far-right the only thing that seems to be at stake is preventing MAS from returning to power, was demonstrated by highly disturbing statements by the Minister of the Interior, Arturo Murillo. On Saturday he told police officers that they had the “duty to prevent the return of the left-wing.”