Argentine Stocks Extend Their Recovery as the Reform Trade Steadies
Key Facts
- The Merval rose 1.71 percent to about 3,176,750 on June 29. That added roughly 53,300 points from the prior close near 3,123,400.
- It was a third straight day of recovery off last week’s lows.
- The earlier selloff was triggered by a global index company keeping Argentina in its lowest tier.
- That shock erased about 11 percent in three days from the early-June record near 3.29 million.
- The peso held near 1,477 to the dollar throughout, marking the drop as equity-specific.
- The index now sits about 3.4 percent below its June record, by The Rio Times’ calculation.
Today’s Focus
A week ago Argentina’s market was reeling from a disappointment it had not priced in. The global index keeper everyone was watching declined to move the country up a tier, and shares fell hard.
What has happened since is the telling part. The market has steadied and turned higher for a third day, while the peso has scarcely budged.
01 A shock absorbed, not a crisis
The combination of falling shares but a calm currency is the signature of a one-off shock being digested. It is not the look of a deeper crisis taking hold.
An upgrade would have funnelled a wave of automatic foreign money into Argentine shares, the big banks most of all. The refusal sent investors rushing for the door, and the index dropped about 11 percent in three days from its early-June record.
The crucial detail is what did not happen: the peso barely moved. That told the market the selloff was a repricing of shares specifically, not a loss of confidence in the wider economy.
Three steady gains and a flat currency suggest the index-status disappointment was a one-off, not a crack in the macro picture. With the upgrade off the table until at least 2027, the reform trade now stands on its own fundamentals.
02 The session in numbers
| Measure | Level | Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P MERVAL | 3,176,750 | +1.71% | Third recovery day |
| US dollar (ARS) | ~1,477 | — | Peso little changed |
| Day’s high | 3,228,587 | — | Intraday peak |
| Day’s low | 3,123,411 | — | Near prior close |
| From June record | — | −3.4% | Working back up |
| One-year change | — | +60% | Still far ahead |
Currency cells are signed by the direction of the local currency: a stronger peso shows green, a weaker peso red, whichever way the dollar quote moves.
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Argentina — Live Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 3,226,297 | +0.82% | +57.76% | 3,199,935 | 3,236,918 | 3,168,430 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,481 | +0.17% | +16.18% | 1,479 | 1,482 | 1,475 | — |
| YPF | 79,000 | +1.41% | +100.44% | 77,900 | 79,300 | 76,700 | 224,496 |
| GGAL | 7,840 | -0.25% | +30.13% | 7,860 | 7,955 | 7,720 | 1,258,163 |
| PAMPA | 5,255 | +1.64% | +46.58% | 5,170 | 5,280 | 5,115 | 599,193 |
| TXAR | 679.50 | +2.33% | +7.69% | 664.00 | 685.00 | 655.00 | 1,445,517 |
| ALUAR | 961.00 | +1.21% | +35.73% | 949.50 | 965.00 | 945.50 | 223,909 |
| TGS | 9,470 | +1.07% | +43.48% | 9,370 | 9,540 | 9,240 | 85,131 |
| CEPU | 2,277 | +0.57% | +57.47% | 2,264 | 2,299 | 2,227 | 228,872 |
| MIRGOR | 17,225 | +2.07% | -19.23% | 16,875 | 17,400 | 16,575 | 3,004 |
| COME | 43.28 | -1.28% | -12.46% | 43.84 | 44.10 | 42.41 | 12,294,535 |
| LOMA NEGRA | 3,565 | +1.21% | +30.11% | 3,523 | 3,580 | 3,480 | 225,533 |
| BYMA | 292.75 | -1.68% | +54.07% | 297.75 | 302.75 | 291.00 | 1,734,635 |
| TELECOM ARG | 4,150 | +0.00% | +78.88% | 4,150 | 4,173 | 4,050 | 73,048 |
| GLOBANT | 32.39 | +0.50% | -62.28% | 32.23 | 32.92 | 31.25 | 639,939 |
| MERCADOLIBRE | 1,836 | +1.23% | -22.64% | 1,814 | 1,863 | 1,805 | 208,793 |
03 The reform trade stands on its own again
With the upgrade shelved until at least 2027, Argentine equities are back to being judged on the home story rather than on index flows. That story still rests on President Milei’s drive to balance the budget and bring down inflation.
The index is dominated by banks and energy producers, the two groups most leveraged to that programme. Lenders gain as disinflation revives lending, while oil and gas names ride the build-out of the Vaca Muerta shale belt.
The index question is not closed so much as postponed. To win an upgrade, Argentina must convince index providers that capital can move freely in and out, which means dismantling the last of the currency controls without sparking a run.
That is why the steady peso matters as much as the share prices. A currency that holds while stocks wobble tells foreign investors the macro anchor is still in place.
04 What to watch next
The path from here runs through fundamentals rather than headlines. The next inflation readings test whether the disinflation push is on track, while progress on the fiscal targets and the IMF program shapes how foreign lenders view the country’s debt.
The midterm elections later in the year loom as the bigger test of whether the reform agenda keeps its momentum. On the chart, the early-June record near 3.29 million is the level the rebound is working toward.
The country-risk gauge is the single number to watch between now and the midterms. A narrowing spread would reopen global debt markets to Argentine borrowers, while a widening one would signal that confidence in the programme is fraying.
05 Connected coverage
For the prior session, see Argentina’s Stock Market Recovers as the Reform Trade Steadies. For the wider picture, see the Global Economy Briefing.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where did Argentina’s Merval close on June 29, 2026?
The Merval rose 1.71 percent to about 3,176,750 points. It was a third straight day of recovery, carrying the index further from the lows it hit after last week’s index-classification setback.
What caused the earlier selloff the market is recovering from?
A major global index company kept Argentina in its lowest tier and did not open the review that precedes an upgrade. Because an upgrade would have steered automatic foreign money into Argentine shares, the refusal sparked a sharp three-day drop of around 11 percent from the early-June record.
Why is the rebound seen as healthy rather than fragile?
Through the whole episode the peso barely moved, signalling a one-off repricing of shares rather than a loss of faith in the wider economy. With the index question settled until at least 2027, the market has gone back to trading the reform story on its own merits.
What is driving Argentine shares now that the upgrade is off the table?
Attention has shifted back to fundamentals: earnings, the country-risk gauge, the path of inflation under President Milei’s program and the steadiness of the peso. The big banks and energy producers that dominate the index are the names most sensitive to that story.
What are the next big tests for the market?
Investors are watching the next inflation readings, progress on the fiscal targets and the IMF program, and the midterm elections later in the year. The early-June record near 3.29 million is the level the rebound is working back toward.
In depth
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