Argentina’s Inflation Hit an Eight-Year Low, But December Sent a Warning

Key Points

• Argentina closed 2025 with 31.5% annual inflation, the lowest year-end reading since 2017.
• Monthly inflation bottomed at 1.5% in May, then climbed steadily to 2.8% in December.
• Services prices rose far faster than goods, leaving many households feeling less relief than the headline suggests.

Argentina finished 2025 with annual inflation of 31.5%, a steep fall from 117.8% at the end of 2024 and the lowest year-end result since 2017, when inflation closed at 24.8%.

President Javier Milei celebrated the number as proof that his shock-therapy program is working, praising Economy Minister Luis “Toto” Caputo in a short social-media message that quickly ricocheted across platforms.

Caputo frames the strategy as a stabilization plan with three anchors: a fiscal surplus, strict control of money creation, and a stronger central bank balance sheet.

The government argues that a tighter budget, restrictive monetary policy, and central bank “capitalization” have squeezed inflation expectations and reduced the need to finance the state by printing pesos.

The official breakdown shows why the victory is real, and why it is fragile.

Argentina inflation cools then reaccelerates

Inflation did not fall in a straight line. Through 2025, monthly readings moved from 2.2% in January and 2.4% in February to 3.7% in March, then eased to 2.8% in April and a low of 1.5% in May.

From there, it rose almost every month: 1.6% in June, 1.9% in July and August, 2.1% in September, 2.3% in October, 2.5% in November, and 2.8% in December. In other words, the year ended with a clear upward drift.

The composition matters even more. Over 2025, goods prices rose 26.5%, while services rose 43.1%, a gap that tends to hit renters and middle-income families hardest. In December, transport rose 4.0% and housing and utilities 3.4%.

Food and non-alcoholic drinks rose 3.1% and was cited as the main regional driver. Clothing rose 1.1%, and education 0.4%. For Brazil-based readers, Argentina’s path affects trade, prices, and investment sentiment across Mercosur supply chains.

If discipline holds, the region gains a steadier neighbor. If the late-year acceleration hardens, volatility returns fast. A further complication is that CPI methodology updates are expected in 2026, which could shift the optics even if daily costs do not.

Related coverage: Brazil’s Morning Call | JPMorgan And Citi’s $1 Billion Pipeline Talks Put Argentina’ This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Argentina affairs and Latin American financial news.

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