Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for January 14, 2026
This is part of The Rio Times’ daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.
Today’s Key Themes
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- Banco Master liquidation drama → heightens scrutiny on Brazilian banks, risking broader confidence erosion amid fraud probe and potential R$41B claims
- Trump’s Iran tariff threat → exposes Brazil to trade dilemmas, with $2.9B exports at stake versus U.S. market access
- Auto sector momentum → 2025 ends with 2.08% registrations growth to 2.69M units, bolstered by easing credit; Mercosur-EU deal may reshape imports and local production
- Petrobras milestone → Tupi field hits 1M bpd again, reinforcing pre-salt dominance and export/fiscal support
- Precious metals surge → gold near $4,632/oz and silver above $90/oz on U.S. rate-cut conviction, offsetting dollar stability
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\nBroader risk: Banking probes, geopolitical tariffs, and U.S. policy/geopolitical tensions could spill into EM volatility, pressuring rates, FX, equities, and commodities
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\nToday’s economic agenda features several key events across regions. These are integrated with ongoing developments, such as the persistent Banco Master collapse, which involves R$41 billion in potential claims and fraud allegations.
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\nAdditionally, Trump’s 25% tariff threat on Iran trade risks Brazil’s $2.9 billion in exports and increases compliance costs. The 2025 auto market is showing strength, closing robustly with 2.69 million registrations amid credit easing.
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\nMeanwhile, the Mercosur-EU deal could potentially lower vehicle tariffs over 15–18 years, altering local manufacturing. Finally, Petrobras is restoring Tupi to 1 million barrels per day to enhance oil output.
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\nIn Brazil, Auto Production (MoM) for December at 8:00 AM BRT and Auto Sales (MoM) for December at 8:00 AM BRT gauge industry health following 2025’s strong performance.
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\nThese indicators are vital for employment and GDP. Brazil Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI for January at 11:00 AM BRT tracks consumer sentiment amid fiscal and trade risks.
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\nMeanwhile, Foreign Exchange Flows at 12:30 PM BRT reveal capital trends, which are key for the stability of the real. In the U.S., Retail Sales (MoM) for November at 8:30 AM EST signals consumer spending strength, influencing global growth expectations.
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\nCore PPI (MoM) for October at 8:30 AM EST monitors producer inflation, affecting Federal Reserve policy bets. Later, the Beige Book at 2:00 PM EST provides regional economic insights, potentially guiding policy amid concerns over central bank independence.
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\nAnd FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 2:10 PM EST could clarify rate paths, swaying dollar and EM assets.
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Economic Agenda for January 14, 2026
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Brazil
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- 8:00 AM BRT – Auto Production (MoM) (Dec) Cons: – Prev: -11.6%
- 8:00 AM BRT – Auto Sales (MoM) (Dec) Cons: – Prev: -8.5%
- 11:00 AM BRT – Brazil Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Jan) Cons: – Prev: 53.15
- 12:30 PM BRT – Foreign Exchange Flows Cons: – Prev: -4.127B
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Mexico
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- 11:00 AM CST – Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (MoM) (Jan) Cons: – Prev: 55.16
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Argentina
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- 11:00 AM ART – Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (MoM) (Jan) Cons: – Prev: 47.87
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Chile
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- No major releases today.
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Colombia
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- 10:00 AM COT – Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov) Cons: – Prev: 1.9%
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United States
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- 8:30 AM EST – Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) Cons: 0.5% Prev: 0.0%
- 8:30 AM EST – Core PPI (MoM) (Oct) Cons: – Prev: 0.1%
- 2:00 PM EST – Beige Book Cons: – Prev: –
- 2:10 PM EST – FOMC Member Williams Speaks Cons: – Prev: –
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EU
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- 3:15 AM CET – ECB’s De Guindos Speaks Cons: – Prev: –
- 5:30 AM CET – German 30-Year Bund Auction Cons: – Prev: 3.260%
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UK
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- 5:30 AM GMT – 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction Cons: – Prev: 4.613%
- 10:30 AM GMT – MPC Member Ramsden Speaks Cons: – Prev: –
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China
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- 5:00 AM CST – New Loans (Dec) Cons: 820.0B Prev: 390.0B
- 5:00 AM CST – M2 Money Stock (YoY) (Dec) Cons: 8.0% Prev: 8.0%
- 5:00 AM CST – Chinese Total Social Financing (Dec) Cons: 2,000.0B Prev: 2,490.0B
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\nImplication: Today’s Brazilian auto data and consumer sentiment are main domestic focuses — stronger figures could affirm sector resilience, supporting real & equities amid trade threats.
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\nU.S. retail sales and PPI are global spotlights: robust data might temper rate-cut hopes, bolstering dollar and weighing on EM; softer reads would fuel easing bets, lifting risk assets like BRL.
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Brazil’s Markets Yesterday (Tuesday, January 13, 2026)
\nIbovespa -0.72% to 161,973 on R$24.9 billion turnover. Petrobras surge offset by bank fears from Master case and Wall Street dip; top gainers included PETR3 +3.41%, PETR4 +2.57%, GGBR4 +1.93%.
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\nEarly Wednesday mini-futures ~163,140–163,760 (~0.7% above cash), USD/BRL near 5.3759. Charts cooling with support at 161,765, weekly uptrend holding.
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Commodity Markets
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- Gold – Around $4,632/oz near records; surged on rate-cut conviction post-U.S. inflation match, ETF inflows up; overbought but upward trend.
- Silver – Around $90.11/oz above $90 milestone; outperforming on industrial demand and rate narrative; testing toward $100, gold-silver ratio 53.27.
- Copper – Around $13,160/ton on LME; firm amid softer U.S. inflation and rate-cut lean, supporting industrial metals.
- Platinum – Around $2,386.60/oz; sharply higher with precious rally on macro bets.
- Palladium – Around $1,854.70/oz; modestly higher but lagging, driven by broader sentiment.
- Aluminium – Around $3,200/ton on LME; steady-to-firmer, tracking base metals as financing eases.
- Iron Ore – Around $107.90/ton; mostly steady, balancing China demand caution.
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Currency
\nBrazilian Real → Softened slightly with dollar near R$5.3759; influenced by U.S. inflation/Fed politics/geopolitics; technicals trapped 5.35–5.40, bullish exhaustion signs.
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Companies and Market
\nWhy the “Master case” won’t go away: The Banco Master collapse, the court fight, and the money at risk → Liquidation amid fraud probe, TCU oversight dispute, potential R$41B claims; ties to BRB with R$16.7B transfers, risking R$10B+ losses.
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\nTrump’s 25% Iran-trade tariff threat puts Brazil in the crosshairs → Immediate 25% U.S. tariff on countries trading with Iran; Brazil’s $2.9B exports (corn/soy/sugar) vs. $84.5M imports at risk, raising compliance costs.
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\nBrazil’s auto market ends 2025 stronger than forecasts as credit squeeze eases at the finish → Registrations up 2.08% to 2.69M units, Dec +8.6% to 279K; electrified +60.8% to 285K; Toyota disruptions noted, 2026 forecast +3%.
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\nMercosur–EU deal could change what Brazilians drive—and where cars are built → Phased tariff cuts over 15-18 years on vehicles; impacts BMW/Jaguar Land Rover plants, potential Chinese EV backdoor via EU.
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\nPetrobras brings Tupi back to the 1-million-barrel-a-day club → Santos Basin field over 1M bpd on Jan 9 via 11 new wells; pre-salt ~80% output, partners Shell/Galp.
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\nCury’s record 2025 sets up a high-stakes 2026 test for Brazil’s housing market → Net profit +46% in 9M, Q3 R$255.3M; launches R$6.36B YTD, sales R$5.55B; tax exemptions/subsidies to boost 2026 demand.
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\nBrazil’s Helbor sales rise 15% in Q4 as launches jump nearly 90% → Q4 gross sales R$661.8M (+15.2%), full-year R$2.226B; launches R$2.2B across 11 projects, VSO 48.1%.
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U.S. Markets Yesterday (Tuesday, January 13, 2026)
\nEdged lower: Dow -0.8% to 49,191.99, S&P 500 -0.2% to 6,963.74, Nasdaq -0.1% to 23,709.87.
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\nEased off records as earnings began; December CPI +0.3% m/m +2.7% y/y, core +2.6% y/y dipped yields. Financials dragged, weekly gains: Dow ~1.2%, S&P ~0.7%, Nasdaq ~0.9%.
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Regional Peers — Mixed/resilient:
\nColombia peso surge to ~3,649.7/USD & COLCAP +1.05% to 2,236.51 amid oil tailwind and carry support
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\nMexico peso steady ~17.8181/USD, IPC ~66,294 consolidating after U.S. inflation, Banxico caution
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\nArgentina peso tight ~1,485/USD official, Merval down 1.3% to 3,036,000 amid calm FX gap
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\nChile peso firms to ~886/USD, IPSA +1.7% to 11,254.48 lifted by copper and rate-cut pricing
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\nNote: Crypto markets jump as ETF money returns but the rally still looks fragile — Bitcoin ~$95,000 on $753.8M inflows; Ethereum +$130M; fragile with overheat signals.
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Related coverage: Ibovespa session | dollar-real exchange rate
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-0.73%
173,787
-0.73%
68,588
-0.40%
10,788
-1.00%
3,166,407
+2.49%
2,176.90
-0.26%
34,836.62
+0.71%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 173,787 | -0.73% | +25.45% | 175,063 | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.05 | +0.34% | -11.66% | 5.04 | 5.05 | 5.04 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.89 | +0.28% | -9.19% | 5.88 | 5.89 | 5.86 | — |
| SELIC | 14.50% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 93.93 | +2.04% | +45.33% | 92.05 | 94.26 | 92.37 | 5,180 |
| WTI | 90.40 | +3.48% | +44.59% | 87.36 | 90.76 | 88.45 | 31,000 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +68.74% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,535 | -0.57% | +34.53% | 4,561 | 4,577 | 4,529 | 25,612 |
| SILVER | 76.00 | +0.50% | +119.87% | 75.62 | 76.30 | 73.51 | 8,187 |
| LITHIUM | 87.15 | -0.40% | +141.01% | 87.50 | 88.04 | 87.00 | 232,194 |
| SOY | 1,192 | +0.44% | +15.34% | 1,187 | 1,193 | 1,185 | 7,938 |
| CORN | 448.00 | +0.28% | +2.22% | 446.75 | 448.50 | 444.50 | 15,103 |
| WHEAT | 615.25 | +0.78% | +14.15% | 610.50 | 616.75 | 609.75 | 4,643 |
| COFFEE | 265.90 | -3.04% | -22.80% | 274.25 | 274.60 | 265.30 | 14,216 |
| SUGAR | 14.07 | +1.01% | -16.65% | 13.93 | 14.35 | 13.90 | 74,188 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 158.80 | -5.84% | -43.58% | 168.65 | 170.00 | 158.80 | 529 |
| COTTON | 77.04 | +1.17% | +16.50% | 76.15 | 87.36 | 84.37 | 6,432 |
| BEEF | 239.05 | -4.28% | +10.39% | 249.75 | 241.93 | 238.60 | 19,071 |
| CATTLE | 348.43 | -1.30% | +15.47% | 353.02 | 354.70 | 346.50 | 9,097 |
| COCOA | 3,901 | -4.83% | -58.82% | 4,099 | 4,175 | 3,895 | 15,620 |
| PETR4 | 42.00 | -1.20% | +34.44% | 42.51 | 42.35 | 41.82 | 73,197,700 |
| VALE3 | 82.82 | -1.36% | +54.95% | 83.96 | 84.28 | 82.38 | 20,835,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.91 | +0.53% | -17.14% | 41.69 | 41.91 | 41.03 | 13,187,900 |
| KLABIN | 16.67 | +0.00% | -11.99% | 16.67 | 16.80 | 16.54 | 8,050,600 |
| SLCE3 | 15.50 | -2.52% | -9.65% | 15.90 | 15.80 | 15.40 | 4,660,400 |
| ABEV3 | 16.32 | +0.18% | +16.07% | 16.29 | 16.46 | 16.02 | 86,415,800 |
| ITUB4 | 40.04 | +0.10% | +10.01% | 40.00 | 40.16 | 39.54 | 80,300,000 |
| BBDC4 | 17.70 | -1.12% | +10.07% | 17.90 | 17.95 | 17.70 | 59,689,600 |
| BBAS3 | 20.30 | -1.41% | -14.35% | 20.59 | 20.70 | 20.28 | 60,419,000 |
| B3SA3 | 16.50 | +0.00% | +17.02% | 16.50 | 16.64 | 16.22 | 48,044,400 |
| WEGE3 | 44.10 | +0.87% | +0.18% | 43.72 | 44.30 | 43.10 | 25,788,300 |
| PRIO3 | 62.25 | -1.14% | +55.63% | 62.97 | 62.85 | 61.03 | 10,048,600 |
| RENT3 | 42.02 | -1.87% | -3.27% | 42.82 | 42.90 | 41.35 | 21,837,900 |
| AZZA3 | 19.31 | -2.72% | -54.64% | 19.85 | 19.85 | 19.08 | 3,140,100 |
| CSNA3 | 6.71 | -1.32% | -21.79% | 6.80 | 6.91 | 6.66 | 11,743,700 |
| GGBR4 | 22.77 | -3.11% | +44.57% | 23.50 | 23.48 | 22.74 | 25,828,900 |
| ENEV3 | 25.63 | +2.52% | +79.86% | 25.00 | 25.63 | 24.67 | 14,442,300 |
| LREN3 | 14.90 | -0.67% | -17.04% | 15.00 | 15.10 | 14.80 | 8,788,100 |