Argentina Markets: Merval & the Peso — July 18, 2026
Key Facts
- The S&P Merval closed at 3,199,934.50 points, a gain of 0.46% on the day, keeping it within striking distance of its record high.
- The peso was virtually unchanged against the dollar at 1,475.51, continuing to trade well beyond the central bank’s original floating band.
- YPF was the session’s standout domestic gainer, rising 0.52% with heavy turnover of ARS 17.7bn as energy names attracted buyers.
- Banco Macro slid 4.42% and Grupo Galicia lost 1.86%, suggesting profit-taking in financials that had led the market higher through the week.
- Country risk has compressed to its tightest level in eight years, underpinning the broad rally but leaving the index just 6% below its 52-week high.
Today’s Focus
Argentina’s S&P Merval rose 0.46% on Friday to close at 3,199,934.50 points, with energy shares doing the heavy lifting while bank stocks retreated. The session offered a microcosm of the ‘Milei reform trade’ that has driven Argentine equities sharply higher this year — investors rotating between financials, which benefit from credit normalisation, and energy and utility names tied to the government’s flagship investment incentive regime.
YPF was the clear leader among domestic names, adding 0.52% with ARS 17.7bn changing hands. Pampa Energía and Central Puerto also edged up, reinforcing the attraction of regulated and resource-linked names in a market where sovereign risk has collapsed to around 420–559 basis points.
But the banks took a breather. Grupo Galicia slipped 1.86% and Banco Macro tumbled 4.42%, trimming gains from earlier in the week when Galicia had surged 5.8% in a single session. The pullback looked like profit-taking rather than a change of heart — turnover in Galicia remained enormous at ARS 15.3bn.
The peso, at 1,475.51 to the dollar, barely budged. It now sits well outside the 1,000–1,400 band originally set by the central bank, a sign of how far FX liberalisation has run since 2024. With the Merval just 6% below its record high, the market is circling a ceiling it has tested but not yet broken.
What matters today. The Merval is consolidating just below its record high as the reform story remains intact but bank shares show signs of near-term exhaustion.
01 The session in one read
After a strong week in which the S&P Merval tested the upper reaches of its trading range, Friday’s session saw the index grind out a modest 0.46% gain to close at 3,199,934.50 points. It was a day of two halves — energy stocks pushed higher while the banks that had led the rally earlier in the week gave back some ground.
Turnover stayed robust. YPF alone handled ARS 17.7bn in trades, Grupo Galicia ARS 15.3bn — numbers that speak to genuine institutional engagement with Argentine equities rather than speculative hot money.
The peso was a sideshow. At 1,475.51 to the dollar it marked a barely perceptible 0.02% change, continuing to trade well beyond the 1,000–1,400 corridor that once defined the central bank’s managed float. The currency story is now one of quiet liberalisation rather than daily drama.
At just 6% below its 52-week high, the Merval is consolidating near levels that would have seemed fanciful two years ago. The question now is whether the macro ingredients — country risk near 420 basis points, fiscal discipline holding, RIGI incentives drawing foreign capital — are enough to drive the index through the 3,300,000 ceiling that has capped it so far.
The evidence points to a market that believes in the Milei reform story — country risk at multi-year lows, heavy turnover, and a Merval up 96% from its 52-week low all attest to that. But the divergence on Friday between rising energy and falling financials suggests the rally is maturing. Investors are rotating within the reform basket rather than adding new money across the board. The variable to watch is whether the Merval can breach 3,300,000 in the coming sessions — a close above that record zone would signal fresh conviction; another failure there would raise the risk of a deeper pullback.
02 The day’s numbers
| Measure | Level | Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Merval | 3,199,934.50 | +0.46% | ~6% below 52-week high; 96% above low |
| USD/ARS | 1,475.51 | +0.02% | Trading outside original 1,000–1,400 corridor |
| 52-week high (Merval) | 3,390,505.00 | — | Record resistance zone near 3,300,000 |
| 52-week low (Merval) | 1,635,451.40 | — | Rally has nearly doubled the index from the trough |
| Country risk (EMBI+ spread) | ~420–559 bps | — | Tightest in eight years; underpins equity demand |
The Merval’s 0.46% gain kept it in a consolidation pattern that has dominated recent sessions. The index has been hovering within sight of the 3,300,000 resistance level — a zone marked by June’s record close — without yet summoning the momentum to break above it. The 52-week range tells the larger story: from 1,635,451 to 3,390,505 points, the market has more than doubled off its lows on the back of the reform programme.
On the currency side, the peso’s near-total stability on Friday masks a deeper structural shift. The exchange rate has migrated well past the upper bound of the 1,000–1,400 band set when capital controls were lifted in April 2024. That it now trades at 1,475 without triggering alarm is itself a signal of growing confidence in the BCRA’s management and the broader liberalisation agenda. Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Argentina — Live Market Board
Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
MERVAL
3,199,934
+0.46%
+54.88%
3,185,257
3,206,991
3,145,475
—
USD/ARS
1,478
+0.17%
+17.16%
1,476
1,481
1,475
—
YPF
77,900
+2.40%
+96.22%
76,075
78,400
76,450
197,697
GGAL
7,860
-0.06%
+28.43%
7,865
7,875
7,630
2,054,553
PAMPA
5,170
+1.17%
+42.23%
5,110
5,220
5,050
687,552
TXAR
665.00
+0.45%
+3.27%
662.00
668.00
650.50
807,552
ALUAR
949.50
+1.01%
+35.84%
940.00
959.00
930.00
295,607
TGS
9,370
-0.16%
+40.06%
9,385
9,490
9,205
87,704
CEPU
2,264
+0.18%
+54.54%
2,260
2,280
2,221
391,911
MIRGOR
16,875
+0.75%
-23.81%
16,750
16,950
15,775
2,929
COME
43.84
-1.39%
-15.54%
44.46
44.60
43.50
6,524,077
LOMA NEGRA
3,535
-0.63%
+30.46%
3,558
3,565
3,480
165,335
BYMA
299.00
-0.83%
+54.08%
301.50
304.50
296.25
1,261,234
TELECOM ARG
4,150
-0.72%
+78.88%
4,180
4,238
4,088
128,024
GLOBANT
32.23
+0.09%
-61.79%
32.20
32.85
31.72
1,161,114
MERCADOLIBRE
1,814
-2.34%
-24.85%
1,857
1,833
1,789
313,473
03 Why it moved — rotation within the reform basket
The session’s shape — energy up, banks down — looks like a natural rotation rather than a retreat from the Milei trade. Earlier in the week, financial names had surged, with Grupo Galicia leaping 5.8% on July 13 as country risk tumbled to its lowest in eight years. That rally priced in a lot of good news on credit normalisation and market re-entry, and Friday brought a gentle bout of profit-taking.
Energy and utility stocks, by contrast, still offer a story that feels fresh to international investors. The RIGI regime — 30-year tax holidays and trade facilities for investments over USD 200m in energy, raw materials and infrastructure — is a direct policy lever that makes YPF, Pampa Energía and Central Puerto into vehicles for long-term capital inflows. YPF’s ARS 17.7bn turnover on Friday suggests global desks are building positions, not just trading the noise.
The macro backdrop gives the rotation room to breathe. With sovereign risk compressed to roughly 420–559 basis points — the tightest since before the Macri era — Argentina’s equity market is no longer being priced for imminent default. The IMF’s 2026 Article IV review and the US-Argentina Reciprocal Trade and Investment Agreement signed in February both add institutional heft to the reform narrative.
Beneath the index level, the FX story is quietly reinforcing the equity case. The peso’s orderly drift to 1,475 reflects a dismantling of the old system of capital controls, import taxes and multiple exchange rates. For foreign investors, a functioning FX market removes one of the biggest historical barriers to committing capital, even if the next government will inherit the task of making these reforms permanent.
04 The day’s movers
| Driver | Level / Move | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| YPF (YPFD) | ARS 77,575.00 | +0.52% | Turnover ARS 17.7bn; 52-wk range 35,520–87,225 |
| Pampa Energía (PAMP) | ARS 5,170.00 | +1.17% | Volume 687.55K shares; range 5,050–5,220 |
| Central Puerto (CEPU) | ARS 2,264.00 | +0.18% | Volume 391.91K; range 2,221–2,280 |
| Grupo Galicia (GGAL) | ARS 7,930.00 | −1.86% | Turnover ARS 15.3bn; range 7,895–8,270 |
| Banco Macro (BMA) | ARS 14,270.00 | −4.42% | Top domestic loser; profit-taking after rally |
YPF was the session’s anchor, recording a 0.52% gain on colossal turnover of ARS 17.7bn. The state-controlled oil and gas major sits near the upper end of its 52-week range of ARS 35,520 to ARS 87,225, reflecting both RIGI-linked optimism and genuine operational momentum. Pampa Energía added 1.17% and Central Puerto 0.18% — smaller moves but consistent with the defensive, yield-oriented character of utility names in a high-inflation environment.
On the losing side, Banco Macro’s 4.42% drop stood out, though the lack of visible turnover data makes it hard to gauge conviction. Grupo Galicia’s 1.86% decline came on ARS 15.3bn in volume — real money was moving — suggesting institutional profit-taking after the bank’s outsized gains earlier in the week rather than a fundamental reassessment. The CEDEAR board, where cross-listed US names like NVDA and META fell in line with Wall Street’s down session, had no bearing on the domestic tape.
05 The regional scoreboard
| Index | Country | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P Merval | Argentina | +0.46% |
| Ibovespa | Brazil | — |
| IPC (S&P/BMV) | Mexico | — |
| COLCAP | Colombia | — |
| S&P 500 | United States | — |
Argentina’s Merval was one of the few regional indices with a verified close for the July 17 session at time of writing. The live market board carried intraday readings for the Ibovespa, Mexico’s IPC, Colombia’s COLCAP and the S&P 500, but those are not pinned to the Friday close in the verified dataset underpinning this wrap.
Context from prior sessions, however, shows the S&P 500 easing 1.01% on Thursday — a reminder that Argentine equities are not immune to global risk appetite, even as the domestic reform story provides a powerful idiosyncratic tailwind. Readers should consult the live board embedded above for the most current regional closes.
06 The technical picture
The Merval is hugging a band just below technical resistance at 3,300,000 points — the record-close zone reached in June. Friday’s close of 3,199,934.50 leaves the index roughly 100,000 points, or 3%, shy of that ceiling. The pattern over recent sessions is one of higher lows and repeated tests of the highs, a formation technicians would read as a consolidation before a potential breakout.
The 52-week perspective is striking: the index stands 96% above its low of 1,635,451.40, a rally that has carried it through multiple prior resistance levels without a severe correction. The 6% gap to the all-time high is narrow enough to keep bulls interested but wide enough to warrant caution — a failure to break through in the next week or two could trigger the first meaningful sell-off of the year.
07 What to watch
- Merval vs 3,300,000 resistance: A close above the June record zone would confirm the bull case; a third failure could trigger a technical correction.
- Grupo Galicia and Banco Macro direction: After leading the rally, financials showed signs of exhaustion. Their next move will signal whether the rotation into energy has further to run.
- Country risk trajectory: The EMBI+ spread near 420 bps is the tightest in eight years. Any reversal — on political noise or fiscal slippage — would hit the reform trade hard.
- Global equity tone: With the S&P 500 easing, Argentina’s ability to decouple from Wall Street will test the depth of domestic conviction in the Milei story.
Background: Argentina’s Inflation Is Falling Monthly and Rising Annually.
Frequently Asked Questions
What closed the Merval on Friday?
The S&P Merval closed at 3,199,934.50 points, up 0.46% on the day, led by energy names while banks pulled back.
Why did YPF rise while banks fell?
YPF gained 0.52% as investors rotated into energy stocks tied to the RIGI investment incentive regime, while financials like Banco Macro and Galicia saw profit-taking after a strong week.
What is the Milei reform trade?
It refers to buying Argentine bank, energy and utility stocks as proxies for President Milei’s deregulation, fiscal consolidation and investment-incentive policies that have collapsed country risk to multi-year lows.
Where is the peso trading?
The peso closed at 1,475.51 per US dollar, barely changed on the day, and now trades well outside the original 1,000–1,400 managed band.
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