Anthropic’s IPO Valuation Rests on a US$200 Billion 2028 Forecast
United States · TECHNOLOGY
Key Facts
—Confidential filing: Anthropic PBC has filed a confidential draft prospectus with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. It confirmed the filing on 1 June 2026.
—Private valuation: A US$65 billion Series H round in May 2026 set a US$965 billion post-money valuation. That overtook OpenAI.
—Run-rate revenue: Anthropic said its annualized run-rate crossed US$47 billion in May 2026, up from roughly US$4 billion in July 2025.
—2028 projection: Reuters reported that Anthropic is projecting 2028 revenue of roughly US$190–200 billion, according to people familiar with its financials.
—Investor target: Investors cited by the Financial Times expect Anthropic to target a US$2 trillion valuation at listing.
—Cash flow gap: Anthropic projects a first quarterly operating profit of US$559 million in the second quarter of 2026. The Information reported in January that it stays cash flow negative until 2028.
Reuters reports that bankers are valuing Anthropic on revenue forecasts two years ahead. Anthropic projects revenue of US$190 billion to US$200 billion in 2028.
The numbers behind the Anthropic IPO valuation
Anthropic, the developer of the Claude family of artificial intelligence models. Has confidentially filed draft IPO paperwork with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
The company said the number of shares to be offered and the price have not yet been set.
The Financial Times reported that investors expect a listing in October 2026. Anthropic has not confirmed a date or a stock exchange.
The valuation conversation starts from a US$965 billion post-money figure set in a US$65 billion Series H round in May 2026. Business Insider reported in July 2026 that secondary trades implied a US$1.2 trillion valuation.
Few sellers make such deals rare.
Forward revenue forecasts drive the US$2 trillion target
Investors cited by the Financial Times expect Anthropic to target a US$2 trillion valuation at listing.
SpaceX raised US$75 billion, the largest initial public offering on record.
Reuters reported that Anthropic is projecting 2028 revenue of roughly US$190–200 billion, according to people familiar with its financials. That figure dwarfs the US$47 billion run-rate the company reported in May 2026.
Investors also expect annualized revenue of US$100–120 billion by the end of 2026. That US$100 billion to US$120 billion figure is an annualised run rate, not full-year revenue for 2026.
Profit arrives, but free cash flow stays negative
Anthropic has projected at least US$10.9 billion of revenue for the second quarter of 2026. It expects a first quarterly operating profit of US$559 million, against US$4.8 billion in the first quarter.
The Information reported in January 2026 that Anthropic had delayed becoming cash flow positive until 2028. The gap reflects heavy spending on cloud computing, specialised chips and model training.
This combination of headline operating profit and deeply negative free cash flow is typical of high-growth platform companies that front-load infrastructure. It also means the IPO valuation rests on investors accepting that today’s losses buy tomorrow’s dominance.
A referendum on the AI bubble
Fortune argued that Anthropic needs Amazon-style earnings to justify a US$2 trillion valuation. Amazon booked US$77.7 billion in net income, while Anthropic has barely turned a profit.
One investor told the Financial Times that 800 percent annual growth justifies a 30 times revenue multiple. The investor said that implies a US$3 trillion valuation for Anthropic.
The answer will shape how capital flows into frontier AI for years.
US capital markets as strategic infrastructure
Anthropic’s choice to list in the US reinforces the centrality of American capital markets to artificial intelligence.
With US-controlled stacks expected to mediate a significant share of global information processing.
For policymakers in Europe, Africa, and Latin America, that raises questions about data sovereignty and dependence on US-domiciled AI providers. The bargaining power of Washington in shaping export controls on advanced AI capabilities also grows with each successful listing.
What the Anthropic IPO means for Africa
Neither Anthropic nor the reported forecasts break revenue down by region. No published source states how much would come from Africa or Latin America.
African firms and governments using Claude would be customers of a US-regulated entity, subject to US law and sanctions policy.
The revenue forecasts implicitly assume subscription-like cash flows from regions with weaker currencies and less developed capital markets. That reinforces asymmetries in who captures value from AI deployment.
This dynamic fits the broader pattern covered in Africa: The New Scramble. Control over strategic technologies and their returns is increasingly contested between the major powers.
How Brazilian investors could buy in
Brazilian investors are expected to reach the listing through BDRs. A Brazilian Depositary Receipt is a locally traded certificate backed by a foreign share.
SpaceX’s BDR turned over R$145 million on its first day on B3 and R$397 million by the third. B3 set five receipts to one share to keep tickets small.
Some 954,000 Brazilian investors now hold BDRs across 818 listings, up from 608 in 2020. Reports say Anthropic and OpenAI receipts are expected to trade on debut day.
Claude has been sold in Brazil in reais since August 2024. Pro costs R$110 per user a month and Team R$165.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Anthropic’s current valuation?
Anthropic’s May 2026 Series H round set a US$965 billion post-money valuation. Business Insider reported in July that secondary trades implied US$1.2 trillion.
When is Anthropic expected to go public?
The Financial Times reported that investors expect Anthropic to list in October 2026. Anthropic has not confirmed a date or a stock exchange.
What revenue forecast underpins the US$2 trillion IPO target?
Reuters reported that Anthropic projects 2028 revenue of roughly US$190 billion to US$200 billion. Investors are applying revenue multiples to that forecast.
Connected Coverage
For more on how global technology and resource competition is reshaping Africa’s position, see Africa: The New Scramble.
Sources
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